Is Pokémon Ultra (Spicy) worth buying right now?

Our current verdict is SKIP (score 24/100). Cash-out EV is $219 on a $249 pack (-12.2% net after the ~85% buyback) — the average rip loses money.

What is the EV of Pokémon Ultra (Spicy)?

The calibrated EV is $258.43 against a pack price of $249.00, with a typical (median) pull of $167.70 across 122 indexed pulls.

What are the real odds of beating the pack price on Pokémon Ultra (Spicy)?

35.3% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price, and 6.6% returned at least double the price. These are observed odds reconstructed from real pulls, not the posted odds.

What is the typical pull from Pokémon Ultra (Spicy)?

The median pull is $167.70 — half of all indexed rips returned less than that. The single best recorded pull is $1,300.20.

Pokémon

Pokémon Ultra (Spicy)

Pokémon Ultra (Spicy) is a $249 Courtyard Pokémon mystery pack with a calibrated expected value of $258.43, worth $218.71 at its observed 85% buyback — a cash-out ratio of 0.878x (1.038x at sticker FMV), so it currently returns less than its price on the average rip once the buyback haircut is taken. 35.3% of 122 indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Rip Advisor verdict: SKIP (24/100).

Ranked #32 of 129 tracked packs by cash-out ratio, #10 of 41 Pokémon packs.

Buy on Courtyard ↗Opens courtyard.io — PullValue is independent and earns nothing from purchases.

Cash-out ratio

0.878x

$218.71 back on a $249 pack, at this pack's observed 85% buyback. At sticker FMV it is 1.038x.

SKIP-12.2% ROI

HIGH CONFIDENCE· 122 pulls · 1dSIGNAL Stale · 27 h ago

Calibrated EV: $258
Cash-out EV: $219
Pack price: $249
Typical pull: $168
Hit rate: 35.3%
Lifetime EV: $260
Pulls indexed: 122
Last pull: 1d ago

01 / Rip Advisor

Is Pokémon Ultra (Spicy) worth it right now?

score 24/100SKIP

050100

Cash-out EV is $219 on a $249 pack (-12.2% net after the ~85% buyback) — the average rip loses money.
The typical pull (median) is $168 — most rips return less than the pack price; the EV is carried by rare chase cards.
EV is down 4.9% over 7 days — chase cards may be leaving the pool. Waiting for a restock can be smarter than ripping a drained pool.
35.3% of pulls meet or beat the pack price, across 122 indexed pulls.

Downside · bottom-quartile rip

−$133

1 in 4 rips returns ≤ $116 cash — covering 47% of the price.

Upside · top-decile rip

+$108

1 in 10 rips returns ≥ $357 cash. Both figures use the observed buyback ratio.

Log this decision:

Verdict is computed transparently from indexed pulls: cash-out ROI, median pull, 7-day trend, hit rate, and sample size. Redemption shipping (typically $16+) is not included — cards worth less than a few times the shipping cost are usually better instant-sold than shipped. Not financial advice.

02 / Pool signals

What's happening in the Pokémon Ultra (Spicy) pool

Lifecycle stage, health, and chase removals — read from indexed pulls, never guessed.

Fresh data, adequate sample, and recent pulls tracking the lifetime average within ±5%.

HEALTHY

Fresh data, adequate sample, and recent pulls tracking the lifetime average within ±5%.

Pro adds the Pool Health score and chase-removal impact.

Not observable: packs remaining, value remaining, and which chases are still in the pool — Courtyard publishes a pull feed, not inventory. We label those unavailable rather than estimate them. Everything above is computed from indexed pulls and EV snapshots; thin or stale data pulls the score toward neutral. Formula

Chase tracker

chase tier ≥ $1,245 · confidence 100%

1 chase-tier card left this pack recently, carrying 4% of its observed average. Pro shows which cards and when.

Removals are facts; what's left is not. Each row is a unique graded card observed leaving this pack, so it is no longer in the pool — though a card can return after a buyback, which is why re-listings are flagged. We show no “chance it remains”: Courtyard publishes pulls, not inventory, so that number would be guesswork. Formula

Signal lifetime

SIGNAL Stale · 27 h ago

No new pulls for well past this pack's usual gap (typically 4.7 h). It may be paused, sold out, or no longer indexed. At the observed pull rate, half the evidence behind this read is replaced in about 24 days.

Newest pull: 27 h; observed
Pull rate: 5.1/day; observed
Pulls, 7d: 45; observed
Half-life: Pro

Aged, not predicted. Half-life counts how fast new evidence arrives, measured from real pull timestamps — it is not a forecast of where EV is heading. We publish no EV-drift half-life because our snapshot history is too short and its early stretch is seeded placeholder data; a number regressed from that would describe our seed script, not the market. Note the headline EV is decay-weighted, so it reacts to new pulls sooner than this whole-sample horizon implies. Methodology

03 / Contents

What has come out of Pokémon Ultra (Spicy)

The eras, sets and cards this pack has actually produced. A record of past pulls — Courtyard publishes no inventory, so this is not a statement about what is left.

By era

Cards seen range from 1997 to 2026.

Current (2020+)48%$216 avg
Modern (2010-2019)25%$285 avg
Retro (2000-2009)17%$365 avg
Vintage (pre-2000)10%$224 avg

Most common sets

Sets these pulls came from.

Pokémon Sword and Shield Crown Zenith3%$227 avg
Pokémon Celebrations Classic Collection2%$142 avg
Pokémon Meg EN-Mega Evolution2%$134 avg
Pokémon Promo Black Star2%$350 avg
Pokémon Sv11w-White Flare2%$131 avg
Base Set2%$129 avg
Guardians Rising2%$148 avg
Pokémon Celebrations2%$199 avg

Cards seen most often

Named on 99% of readable pulls. The rest do not print a card number, and without one the card cannot be told apart from the set name.

Pikachu5%$168 avg
Mew2%$182 avg
Charizard2%$253 avg
Charmander2%$260 avg
Garbodor2%$136 avg
Magikarp2%$378 avg
Mega Venusaur EX2%$132 avg
Mew EX2%$387 avg

Built from the 122 indexed pulls of this pack so far — a record of what has come out, not a promise about what is left.

04 / Floor safety

Pokémon Ultra (Spicy) floor safety & buyback reality

The two ways average EV lies to you — how top-heavy the pack is, and what FMV actually converts to in cash — then which exit pays most.

In Pokémon Ultra (Spicy), the top 2% of pulls account for 11% of all pulled value — low dilution. Value is spread fairly evenly across the pool, so the average is close to what a typical rip returns. The observed instant-offer ratio is 85% of FMV, which is the cash number every verdict on this page already uses.

Floor safety

low dilution

11% of everything this pack has paid out came from just the top 2% of pulls. Value is spread broadly across pulls — the average EV is a fair picture of a typical rip.

Buyback reality

84.6% of FMV observed

Across offers we've indexed, a $100 FMV pull cashes out around $85 if you instant-sell — below the advertised ~90%, so FMV is not your exit price. Every number in our verdicts already uses this haircut.

Holding, listing, or physically redeeming can beat the instant offer — but redemption shipping (typically $16+) eats small wins.

Net exit value

119 paired pulls · 98% bid coverage · confidence 100%

Instant-selling a typical pull here returns $220.36 — $40.07 below sticker FMV (15.4% haircut). That figure is the average of bids we actually recorded, not an assumed 90%.

Pro compares all three exits side by side, with the redemption breakeven and the value-by-value haircut curve for this pack.

Bids are recorded, resale is not. Instant-buyback figures are real offers captured at index time and can move. Redemption shipping starts near $16 in the US, is higher internationally, and is charged per shipment — batching pulls lowers it. We publish no resale estimate, liquidity score, or time-to-sell, because no such data is available to us. How buyback works

05 / Observed odds

Pokémon Ultra (Spicy) odds — observed, not posted

Reconstructed from real pulls, so it reflects the pool as it drains — posted odds can't do that.

Across 122 indexed pulls, 35.3% returned at least the $249 pack price and 6.6% returned double or more; the single best recorded pull is $1,300.

Under $1250.0%· stable
$125 – $24964.8%· stable
$249 – $498 · beats the pack28.7%· stable
$498 – $1,245 · big hit5.7%· stable
$1,245+ · chase0.8%· stable

Observed across 122 indexed pulls — what actually came out of this pack, independent of the posted odds. The 48h column shows tier drift: a falling green tier means the good cards are leaving the pool.

06 / Simulator

Pokémon Ultra (Spicy) rip simulator

What ripping 1–20 packs looks like, using this pack's actual pull distribution.

Packs to rip5Hoping for

Cost: $1,245
Expected cash-out: $1,100
Expected net: -$145
≥1 hit chance: 88.6%

Based on the observed distribution of 122 pulls and a 85% buyback. Averages describe many rips — any single rip can land anywhere on the distribution.

Monte Carlo · 10,000 trials

Packs5

P(profit) 25.8%

Mean net −$145

Cost $1,245

Worst 5%: −$618
Bottom quartile: −$415
Median: −$237
Top quartile: +$13
Best 5%: +$649

Bootstrap resampling of 122 observed pulls with the 85% cash-out applied. Assumes the pool doesn't change as you rip — for top-heavy packs the downside is understated once the grail leaves. Estimates, not financial advice.

07 / Big hits

Biggest Pokémon Ultra (Spicy) pulls

2013 Black Star Promos #XY120 Meloetta - Mythical Pokémon Collection (Holo) (CGC 10 GEM MINT)

$1,300CGC 10 GEM MINT

2004 EX Team Rocket Returns #15/109 Dark Dragonite - Reverse Holo (CGC 7.5 NM+)

$1,209CGC 7.5 NM+

2012 Pokémon Black & White Dragon Blast #053 Giratina EX - 1st Edition Holo Full Art (PSA 9 MINT)

$1,118PSA 9 MINT

2002 Pokémon Neo Destiny #109 Shining Mewtwo - Holo (PSA 5 EX)

$1,050PSA 5 EX

2013 Pokémon Black & White Plasma Freeze #111 Deoxys EX - Holo Full Art (PSA 7 NM)

$620PSA 7 NM

2016 Pokémon XY Awakening Psychic King #059 Lugia Break - 1st Edition (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$559PSA 10 GEM MINT

2021 Pokémon Sword & Shield Evolving Skies #205 Leafeon Vmax - Full Art Secret (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$551PSA 10 GEM MINT

2023 Pokémon Sv4a-Shiny Treasure EX #347 Mew EX - Holo Special Art Rare (PSA 9 MINT)

$500PSA 9 MINT

08 / EV history

Pokémon Ultra (Spicy) EV over time

Snapshot per scraper run. The dashed line is break-even — EV above it is +EV.

Calibrated EV currently sits at $258.43, above the $249 pack price, and has moved down 4.9% over the last 7 days.

1.038xEV ratio

09 / Quick answers

Pokémon Ultra (Spicy) — quick answers

Is Pokémon Ultra (Spicy) worth buying right now?: Our current verdict is SKIP (score 24/100). Cash-out EV is $219 on a $249 pack (-12.2% net after the ~85% buyback) — the average rip loses money.
What is the EV of Pokémon Ultra (Spicy)?: The calibrated EV is $258.43 against a pack price of $249.00, with a typical (median) pull of $167.70 across 122 indexed pulls.
What are the real odds of beating the pack price on Pokémon Ultra (Spicy)?: 35.3% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price, and 6.6% returned at least double the price. These are observed odds reconstructed from real pulls, not the posted odds.
What is the typical pull from Pokémon Ultra (Spicy)?: The median pull is $167.70 — half of all indexed rips returned less than that. The single best recorded pull is $1,300.20.

10 / Pull log