Pokémon Master Pack vs Pokémon Ultra (Spicy): which pack is the better rip?
On live data, Pokémon Ultra (Spicy) is currently the better value: a 0.962x cash-out ratio against Pokémon Master Pack's 0.872x, across 2,969 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.
| Metric | Pokémon Master Pack | Pokémon Ultra (Spicy) |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | CAUTION | CAUTION |
| Pack price | $100 | $249 |
| Calibrated EV | $102.34 | $282.82 |
| Cash-out ratio | 0.872x | 0.962x |
| EV ratio (at sticker FMV) | 1.023x | 1.136x |
| Median pull | $86.50 | $189.00 |
| Hit rate | 28.1% | 39.7% |
| Volatility (stddev/EV) | 0.47x | 0.73x |
| Pulls indexed | 2,060 | 909 |
02 / EV history
EV ratio over time, overlaid
Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Pokémon Master Pack: 718 points from Jul 12 to Oct 3, starting at 0.72x and ending at 0.87x, up overall (+20.4%), ranging between 0.72x and 0.92x. Pokémon Ultra (Spicy): 718 points from Jul 12 to Oct 3, starting at 1.58x and ending at 0.96x, down overall (-39.2%), ranging between 0.45x and 1.58x.
Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.
03 / Quick answers
Pokémon Master Pack vs Pokémon Ultra (Spicy) — quick answers
- Which is better value right now: Pokémon Master Pack or Pokémon Ultra (Spicy)?
- Pokémon Ultra (Spicy) currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.962x vs 0.872x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
- Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
- Pokémon Master Pack: 28.1% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Pokémon Ultra (Spicy): 39.7%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
- Which pack is riskier?
- Pokémon Ultra (Spicy) has the higher volatility (0.73x vs 0.47x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.
Full pages: Pokémon Master Pack EV & verdict · Pokémon Ultra (Spicy) EV & verdict · Why average EV lies