Is Pokémon Master Pack worth buying right now?

Our current verdict is NO DATA (score 0/100). No new pulls in 0 days — this pack normally yields one every 0.0 days, so it has gone quiet.

What is the EV of Pokémon Master Pack?

The calibrated EV is $100.53 against a pack price of $100.00, with a typical (median) pull of $86.70 across 4,233 indexed pulls.

What are the real odds of beating the pack price on Pokémon Master Pack?

29.2% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price, and 2.9% returned at least double the price. These are observed odds reconstructed from real pulls, not the posted odds.

What is the typical pull from Pokémon Master Pack?

The median pull is $86.70 — half of all indexed rips returned less than that. The single best recorded pull is $567.00.

Pokémon

Pokémon Master Pack

Pokémon Master Pack is a $100 Courtyard Pokémon mystery pack with a calibrated expected value of $100.53, worth $85.42 at its observed 85% buyback — a cash-out ratio of 0.854x (1.005x at sticker FMV), so it currently returns less than its price on the average rip once the buyback haircut is taken. 29.2% of 4,233 indexed pulls met or beat the pack price.

Ranked #45 of 74 ranked packs by cash-out ratio, #9 of 14 Pokémon packs.

Buy on Courtyard ↗Opens courtyard.io — PullValue is independent and earns nothing from purchases.

Cash-out ratio

0.854x

$85.42 back on a $100 pack, at this pack's observed 85% buyback. At sticker FMV it is 1.005x.

95% range $83.13–$87.71, clear of the $100 price.

-14.6% ROI

HIGH CONFIDENCE · 4,233 pulls (1,224 effective) · todaySIGNAL Fresh · 4.9 h ago

Calibrated EV: $101
Cash-out EV: $85
Pack price: $100
Typical pull: $87
Hit rate: 29.2%
Lifetime EV: $100
Pulls indexed: 4,233
Last pull: 4h ago

01 / Rip Advisor

Is Pokémon Master Pack worth it right now?

score 0/100NO DATA

050100

No new pulls in 0 days — this pack normally yields one every 0.0 days, so it has gone quiet.

Downside · bottom-quartile rip

−$35

1 in 4 rips returns ≤ $65 cash — covering 65% of the price.

Upside · top-decile rip

+$11

1 in 10 rips returns ≥ $111 cash. Both figures use the observed buyback ratio.

Log this decision:

Verdict is computed transparently from indexed pulls: cash-out ROI, median pull, 7-day trend, hit rate, and sample size. Redemption shipping (typically $16+) is not included — cards worth less than a few times the shipping cost are usually better instant-sold than shipped. Not financial advice.

02 / Pool signals

What's happening in the Pokémon Master Pack pool

Lifecycle stage, health, and chase removals — read from indexed pulls, never guessed.

Fresh data, adequate sample, and recent pulls tracking the lifetime average within ±5%.

HEALTHY

Fresh data, adequate sample, and recent pulls tracking the lifetime average within ±5%.

Pro adds the Pool Health score and chase-removal impact.

Not observable: packs remaining, value remaining, and which chases are still in the pool — Courtyard publishes a pull feed, not inventory. We label those unavailable rather than estimate them. Everything above is computed from indexed pulls and EV snapshots; thin or stale data pulls the score toward neutral. Formula

Chase tracker

chase tier ≥ $500 · confidence 100%

4 chase-tier cards left this pack recently, carrying 2% of its observed average. Pro shows which cards and when.

Removals are facts; what's left is not. Each row is a unique graded card observed leaving this pack, so it is no longer in the pool — though a card can return after a buyback, which is why re-listings are flagged. We show no “chance it remains”: Courtyard publishes pulls, not inventory, so that number would be guesswork. Formula

Signal lifetime

SIGNAL Fresh · 4.9 h ago

Recomputed against pulls indexed in the last few hours. At the observed pull rate, half the evidence behind this read is replaced in about 56 days.

Newest pull: 4.9 h; observed
Pull rate: 76.2/day; observed
Pulls, 7d: 524; observed
Half-life: Pro

Aged, not predicted. Half-life counts how fast new evidence arrives, measured from real pull timestamps — it is not a forecast of where EV is heading. We publish no EV-drift half-life because our snapshot history is still too short for a regression to mean anything. The seeded placeholder points this note used to warn about have been flagged in the database and excluded from every chart, trend and score, so what you see plotted is observed data. Note the headline EV is decay-weighted, so it reacts to new pulls sooner than this whole-sample horizon implies. Methodology

03 / Contents

What has come out of Pokémon Master Pack

The eras, sets and cards this pack has actually produced. A record of past pulls — Courtyard publishes no inventory, so this is not a statement about what is left.

By era

Cards seen range from 1996 to 2026.

Current (2020+)68%$97 avg
Modern (2010-2019)15%$106 avg
Vintage (pre-2000)10%$112 avg
Retro (2000-2009)8%$103 avg
Year not stated<1%$237 avg

Most common sets

Sets these pulls came from.

Pokémon Svp EN-SV Black Star Promo4%$92 avg
Pokémon Meg EN-Mega Evolution3%$98 avg
Pokémon Mep EN-Me Black Star Promo2%$81 avg
Pokémon Mew EN-1512%$109 avg
Pokémon Dri EN-Destined Rivals2%$101 avg
Pokémon Sv8a-Terastal Fest EX2%$112 avg
Pokémon Sword and Shield Crown Zenith2%$106 avg
Pokémon Swsh Black Star Promo2%$96 avg

Cards seen most often

Named on 98% of readable pulls. The rest do not print a card number, and without one the card cannot be told apart from the set name.

Pikachu2%$83 avg
Squirtle2%$92 avg
Eevee2%$91 avg
Charmander2%$95 avg
Bulbasaur1%$86 avg
Espeon EX1%$89 avg
Oricorio EX1%$72 avg
Snorlax1%$78 avg

Built from the 1000 indexed pulls of this pack so far — a record of what has come out, not a promise about what is left.

04 / Floor safety

Pokémon Master Pack floor safety & buyback reality

The two ways average EV lies to you — how top-heavy the pack is, and what FMV actually converts to in cash — then which exit pays most.

In Pokémon Master Pack, the top 2% of pulls account for 8% of all pulled value — low dilution. Value is spread fairly evenly across the pool, so the average is close to what a typical rip returns. The observed instant-offer ratio is 85% of FMV, which is the cash number every verdict on this page already uses.

Floor safety

low dilution

8% of everything this pack has paid out came from just the top 2% of pulls. Value is spread broadly across pulls, so the average sits closer to the typical rip here than it does on a top-heavy pack. It still sits above the median — check both.

Buyback reality

85.0% of FMV observed

Across 4,115 indexed pulls that carry a recorded bid, a $100 FMV pull cashes out around $85 if you instant-sell — in line with the platform's 84.6%. This is the figure every verdict on the site multiplies by.

Holding, listing, or physically redeeming can beat the instant offer — but redemption shipping (typically $16+) eats small wins.

Net exit value

989 paired pulls · 99% bid coverage · confidence 100%

Instant-selling the average (mean) pull here returns $85.29 — $15.42 below sticker FMV (15.3% haircut). That figure is the average of bids we actually recorded, not the platform rate applied blind.

Pro compares all three exits side by side, with the redemption breakeven and the value-by-value haircut curve for this pack.

Bids are recorded, resale is not. Instant-buyback figures are real offers captured at index time and can move. Redemption shipping starts near $16 in the US, is higher internationally, and is charged per shipment — batching pulls lowers it. We publish no resale estimate, liquidity score, or time-to-sell, because no such data is available to us. How buyback works

05 / Observed odds

Pokémon Master Pack odds — observed, not posted

Reconstructed from real pulls, so it shows what has actually been coming out — posted odds can't do that. It is a record of pulls, not a count of what is left.

Across 4,233 indexed pulls, 29.2% returned at least the $100 pack price and 2.9% returned double or more; the single best recorded pull is $567.

Under $500.0%· stable
$50 – $10065.4%▲ 0.6pt · 48h
$100 – $200 · beats the pack31.7%▲ 1.3pt · 48h
$200 – $500 · big hit2.8%▼ 1.9pt · 48h
$500+ · chase0.1%· stable

Observed across 1,000 indexed pulls — what actually came out of this pack, independent of the posted odds. The 48h column shows tier drift: a falling green tier means fewer of the good cards have come out lately — which may mean they are running out, or may just be a quiet 48 hours.

06 / Simulator

Pokémon Master Pack rip simulator

What ripping 1–20 packs looks like, using this pack's actual pull distribution.

Packs to rip5Hoping for

Averaged over

$100.53 per pull

Cost: $500
Expected cash-out: $427
Expected net: -$73
≥1 hit chance: 88.4%

Recent pool: pulls are weighted so newer ones count for more, the same basis as this pack’s headline, verdict and the budget tool. The 400 pulls behind the hit chance are unweighted either way, and the 85% buyback is applied to both. Averages describe many rips — any single rip can land anywhere on the distribution.

Monte Carlo · 10,000 trials

Packs5

P(profit) 14.4%

Mean net −$71

Cost $500

Worst 5%: −$162
Bottom quartile: −$130
Median: −$99
Top quartile: −$51
Best 5%: +$159

Bootstrap resampling of 1,000 observed pulls with the 85% cash-out applied. Every pull is drawn with equal probability, so this is an all-time average: it will sit below the headline whenever the recent pool has run better than the lifetime one, and above it when the reverse is true. It also assumes the pool doesn't change as you rip — for top-heavy packs the downside is understated once the grail leaves. Estimates, not financial advice.

07 / Big hits

Biggest Pokémon Master Pack pulls

2005 Pokémon Pokepark Blue #009 Rayquaza - Holo (PSA 9 MINT)

$908PSA 9 MINT

2017 Pokémon SM Promo #124 Espeon GX - Holo Champion's League Yokohama 2018 (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$567PSA 10 GEM MINT

2006 Pokémon EX Crystal Guardians #98 Swampert EX - Holo Holo (PSA 8 NM-MT)

$563PSA 8 NM-MT

2019 Unified Minds #215/236 Rowlet & Alolan Exeggutor GX - Ultra Rare Holo (CGC 10 PRISTINE)

$542CGC 10 PRISTINE

2016 Pokémon XY Fates Collide #78 Lugia - Holo Cracked Ice (PSA 8 NM-MT)

$528PSA 8 NM-MT

2021 Japanese Eevee Heroes #189/S-P Espeon VMAX - Full Art Holo (CGC 10 PRISTINE)

$519CGC 10 PRISTINE

2023 Pokémon Sv2a-Pokémon Card 151 #025 Pikachu - Reverse Holo Master Ball (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$459PSA 10 GEM MINT

2023 Shiny Treasure ex #349/190 Charizard ex - Special Art Rare Holo (CGC 10 PRISTINE)

$444CGC 10 PRISTINE

08 / EV history

Pokémon Master Pack EV over time

Snapshot per scraper run. The dashed line is break-even — EV above it is +EV.

Calibrated EV currently sits at $100.53, above the $100 pack price, and has moved down 0.5% over the last 7 days.

0.854xCash-out ratio

09 / Quick answers

Pokémon Master Pack — quick answers

Is Pokémon Master Pack worth buying right now?: Our current verdict is NO DATA (score 0/100). No new pulls in 0 days — this pack normally yields one every 0.0 days, so it has gone quiet.
What is the EV of Pokémon Master Pack?: The calibrated EV is $100.53 against a pack price of $100.00, with a typical (median) pull of $86.70 across 4,233 indexed pulls.
What are the real odds of beating the pack price on Pokémon Master Pack?: 29.2% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price, and 2.9% returned at least double the price. These are observed odds reconstructed from real pulls, not the posted odds.
What is the typical pull from Pokémon Master Pack?: The median pull is $86.70 — half of all indexed rips returned less than that. The single best recorded pull is $567.00.

10 / Pull log