Glossary

Every term used across PullValue, defined once. For the math behind them, see the guides and methodology.

Expected value (EV): The average fair-market value of a single pull, computed across all recorded pulls from a pack. The core statistic of pack math.
EV ratio: EV divided by pack price, at sticker FMV. Useful for comparing packs, but 1.0 here is NOT break-even: you cannot sell at FMV, so the buyback haircut still has to come off. Use cash-out ratio for that.
Cash-out ratio: Cash-out EV divided by pack price - what actually comes back per dollar spent, after the pack's own observed buyback. Above 1.0 the pack really does clear its price. This is the headline figure on every pack page.
Calibrated EV: PullValue's decay-weighted EV: recent pulls count more than old ones, so the number reflects the pool as it exists now, not its lifetime average.
Cash-out EV: EV multiplied by the observed instant-buyback ratio (~90% of FMV) — the value you could actually convert to cash. All PullValue verdicts use cash-out EV.
FMV (fair market value): Courtyard's internal estimate of a graded card's market value. A reference point, not a guaranteed sale price.
Buyback / instant offer: The platform's standing offer to purchase your pull immediately, typically around 90% of its FMV.
Buyback spread: The gap between a card's FMV and its actual instant offer. PullValue publishes the observed spread per pack.
Hit rate: The percentage of pulls worth at least the pack price. A 40% hit rate means 6 of 10 rips return less than you paid.
Median pull: The middle pull value: half of rips return more, half less. On top-heavy packs the median sits well below the average EV.
Dilution / floor safety: How concentrated a pack's value is in its top pulls. High dilution means the top 2% of pulls carry most of the paid-out value — lottery-style odds.
Grail / chase card: A rare, high-value card that carries a disproportionate share of a pack's EV.
Slab: A graded card sealed in a protective holder by a grading company such as PSA or CGC, with its grade on the label.
Pull / rip: Opening a pack (ripping) and the card received from it (the pull).
Mint: The on-platform event of a pack being opened and a card entering circulation — the event PullValue indexes as a pull.
Break-even: A cash-out ratio of exactly 1.0: the pack returns, on average, exactly what it costs once the buyback haircut is taken. At a ~90% buyback that needs an EV ratio near 1.11, so a pack at 1.0 EV ratio is still losing money.
Observed odds: Odds reconstructed from real recorded pulls rather than the platform's posted odds — they reflect the pool as it drains.
ROI (return on investment): Net gain or loss as a share of what you paid: (cash-out value − pack price) ÷ pack price. PullValue quotes ROI after the buyback haircut, not on paper FMV.
Volatility: How widely a pack's pull values swing, measured as standard deviation divided by EV. High volatility means individual rips land far from the average — in both directions.
Risk-adjusted value: A pack's net ROI minus a penalty for weak floors, scaled to your risk tolerance. Two packs with equal EV are not equal if one's bad pulls are much worse.
Floor cover: The share of the pack price returned by a bottom-quartile (25th percentile) pull, cash-adjusted. A 0.6x floor cover means even a bad rip returns ~60% of what you paid.
Monte Carlo simulation: Estimating rip outcomes by resampling real recorded pulls thousands of times. PullValue's simulator uses 10,000 trials of the observed distribution — no assumed curves.
Pool depletion / EV decay: As chase cards get pulled from a fixed pool, the remaining odds and EV worsen. Calibrated EV and 48h odds drift are how PullValue surfaces it.
Pool health score: A 0–100 read of a pack's observable pool condition — cash economics, recent-vs-lifetime drift, floor cover, concentration, and chase removals — shrunk toward a neutral 50 when data is thin or stale. It never claims to know remaining inventory.
Lifecycle stage: PullValue's observable pool state: building sample, healthy, depleting, chase-drained signal, recovery signal, or stale data. Each stage is a rule over indexed pulls and EV snapshots, documented on the methodology page.