Mystery pack math, explained honestly
Everything on PullValue comes from one idea: you should know what a pack is statistically worth before you rip it. These fifteen guides explain the arithmetic behind the numbers, and every figure in them is measured from 133,089 pulls indexed from Courtyard's public feed across 201 packs — the same data the rankings run on. Terms are defined in the glossary; every formula is documented in the methodology.
What is pack EV?
Break-even is 1.18x, not 1.00xExpected value is measured in catalogue value; your wallet is measured in cash. A pack at exactly 1.00x loses 15.4% per rip.
Why average EV lies
The mean is 2.7x the medianAcross every indexed pull the mean runs about 2.7x the median. Use the mean to compare packs and the median to predict your night.
The buyback explained
84.6%, and it changed this summerThe rate was tiered until August — cheap cards drew near-full FMV. Now it is flat, and the cut landed almost entirely on the pull you are most likely to get.
Mystery pack odds
Posted odds go stale by arithmeticObserved odds from real pulls, why a fixed pool makes published numbers drift, and what the data can and cannot tell you about whether packs are rigged.
Mystery pack ROI
FMV accounting overstates by ~15 pointsThe formula is trivial; the mistake is putting catalogue value where cash belongs. Worked through on real packs, including where shipping actually belongs.
Shipping & redemption fees
No flat rate, plus import tax abroadCourtyard ships worldwide from Delaware at FedEx cost. The US exempts imports under $800; most of Europe exempts nothing, which changes the ship-or-sell rule entirely.
Is Courtyard worth it?
Only a couple clear break-evenThe average priced pack returns under 90 cents per dollar. The spread between the best and worst pack dwarfs the average.
Rip or buy the single?
Two answers, and they disagreeRoughly half the catalogue acquires card value below sticker — but very few return more cash than they cost. Which answer applies depends on whether you keep what you pull.
Card grades: PSA, CGC, BGS
CGC is 38.6% of pulls and the cheapestThe grading company on the slab predicts your pull value better than almost anything else. PSA 10 medians $56.25; CGC medians $18.20 — and CGC is the most common thing in the catalogue.
How many packs until EV is real?
77 to 231 rips, depending on the packA solved statistics problem, not a vibe. Pokémon Starter needs 77 rips to pin its average within 10%; Ultra (Spicy) needs 231. The whole catalogue needs 6,004.
What you actually own
0% marketplace fees vs a 15.4% buybackThe vault, the token and the fee detail most buyers miss: listing costs nothing, so it beats the instant buyback by the full haircut whenever a buyer exists.
Sealed boosters
8% of pulls, and the only checkable onesOne pull in twelve is a sealed booster worth a $15.50 median — and they are the only valuations on Courtyard you can hold against a shop shelf.
Courtyard One Piece packs
The tightest category on the platformBest and worst are seven points apart, against forty-three in Pokémon. The one category where pack choice barely matters — and none clear break-even.
Courtyard sports packs
Price predicts nothing hereThe opposite of the Pokémon result: across football, basketball, baseball, hockey and soccer every price tier averages 0.84–0.88, and the worst pack in the group costs $250.
Courtyard Pokémon packs
The cheap ones are the worst valueThe $500 Platinum Pack is the only Pokémon pack above break-even; the $15 Basic Pack returns 0.60x. Price tier predicts value, backwards to expectation.
Catalogue counts on these pages are computed live. The historical figures — the July-to-September buyback series, the import tax table — were measured on 18 September 2026and are dated deliberately. Live per-pack numbers update continuously on the rankings and each pack page. PullValue is independent and not affiliated with Courtyard.