What does EV mean for mystery packs?

EV (expected value) is the average dollar value of a single pull, computed across every recorded pull from that pack. If a $50 pack has an EV of $54, the average rip returns $54 of card value.

What is a good EV ratio?

An EV ratio above 1.0 means the pack pays out more than it costs on average (+EV). Below 1.0, the house keeps the difference. Most mystery packs sit below 1.0 most of the time.

Does +EV mean I will profit?

No. EV describes the average over many rips. A single rip can land anywhere on the distribution — +EV improves your odds, it does not guarantee any outcome.

What is pack EV? The expected value of a mystery pack, explained

By PullValue Research · Updated July 9, 2026 · Numbers computed per our methodology

Pack EV (expected value) is the average fair-market value of a single pull, calculated across every recorded pull from that pack. On Courtyard, each graded card (a PSA or CGC slab) carries an FMV estimate; add up the FMV of everything a pack has ever paid out, divide by the number of pulls, and you have its EV.

The formula

EV = (sum of all pulled card values) ÷ (number of pulls). PullValue computes this from thousands of indexed pulls per pack and additionally weights recent pulls more heavily (a decay-weighted or calibrated EV), because a pack's card pool changes as chase cards get pulled out of it.

What is the EV ratio?

The EV ratio is EV divided by the pack price. A $99 pack with a $108 calibrated EV has a ratio of 1.09x. It is a useful way to compare packs, but 1.0 here is not break-even, because FMV is not a price you can sell at.

Why 1.09x can still lose money

Courtyard buys pulls back at roughly 85–95% of FMV, so what you can actually convert to cash is EV times that ratio. Take the $99 pack above at a 90% buyback: $108 becomes $97.20, against a $99 price. It reads as +9% and returns −1.8%. The figure that answers the question you are actually asking is the cash-out ratio — cash-out EV divided by price — and at a ~90% buyback an EV ratio of about 1.11x is where a pack truly breaks even. Our rankings sort every Courtyard pack by the cash-out ratio, live.

Why EV alone isn't enough

EV is an average, and averages hide risk. Two packs with identical EV can behave completely differently: one pays steadily, the other is a lottery carried by rare grails. That's why every PullValue pack page also shows the median pull, hit rate, floor safety, and the cash-out EV after Courtyard's buyback haircut — covered in Why average EV lies and The 90% buyback, explained.

Quick answers

What does EV mean for mystery packs?: EV (expected value) is the average dollar value of a single pull, computed across every recorded pull from that pack. If a $50 pack has an EV of $54, the average rip returns $54 of card value.
What is a good EV ratio?: An EV ratio above 1.0 means the pack pays out more than it costs on average (+EV). Below 1.0, the house keeps the difference. Most mystery packs sit below 1.0 most of the time.
Does +EV mean I will profit?: No. EV describes the average over many rips. A single rip can land anywhere on the distribution — +EV improves your odds, it does not guarantee any outcome.

PullValue is independent and not affiliated with Courtyard. This guide is statistics and education, not financial advice. See live numbers on the pack rankings.