Why do I keep pulling less than the pack price if the EV looks good?

Because average EV is dragged upward by rare chase cards. In top-heavy packs, the median pull — what a typical rip returns — is often 30 to 50 percent below the average. Check the median, not just the EV.

What is pack dilution?

Dilution measures how much of a pack's total paid-out value came from its top pulls. If the top 2% of pulls account for half of all value, the pack is highly diluted: miss the grails and your typical return is far below the average.

The share of pulls worth at least the pack price. A 35% hit rate means roughly 2 of every 3 rips return less than what you paid, even if the pack is +EV on average.

Why average EV lies (and what a typical rip really returns)

By PullValue Research · Updated July 9, 2026 · Numbers computed per our methodology

The most common complaint about mystery packs is also the most mathematically predictable one: "the EV looked fine, but 9 times out of 10 I pulled less than the pack price." Both things are true at once. The average is real — and the average is lying to you.

The grail problem

Mystery pack pools are top-heavy: a small number of chase cards ("grails") carry a huge share of the total value. One $5,000 slab in a pool of $20 cards lifts the average dramatically while changing nothing about what most people pull. The mean answers "what does the pool pay out overall?" — it does not answer "what will my rip probably return?"

The numbers that answer the real question

The median pull is the middle outcome — half of rips return more, half less. On top-heavy packs it routinely sits 30–50% below the average EV. The hit rate tells you how often a rip meets or beats the pack price. And PullValue's floor safety / dilution index measures what share of a pack's total paid-out value came from just the top 2% of pulls — the higher that share, the more the average depends on grails you probably won't hit.

How to use this

Before ripping, check three numbers on the pack page: the median against the price (your typical outcome), the hit rate (how often you break even), and the dilution level (how lottery-like the pack is). A +EV pack with high dilution is a reasonable gamble; a −EV pack with high dilution is entertainment spend — treat it that way. Our EV guide covers the base math.

Quick answers

Why do I keep pulling less than the pack price if the EV looks good?: Because average EV is dragged upward by rare chase cards. In top-heavy packs, the median pull — what a typical rip returns — is often 30 to 50 percent below the average. Check the median, not just the EV.
What is pack dilution?: Dilution measures how much of a pack's total paid-out value came from its top pulls. If the top 2% of pulls account for half of all value, the pack is highly diluted: miss the grails and your typical return is far below the average.
What is a hit rate?: The share of pulls worth at least the pack price. A 35% hit rate means roughly 2 of every 3 rips return less than what you paid, even if the pack is +EV on average.

PullValue is independent and not affiliated with Courtyard. This guide is statistics and education, not financial advice. See live numbers on the pack rankings.