How do I calculate mystery pack ROI?

ROI = (cash-out value − pack price) ÷ pack price. Use what the pull converts to in cash (on Courtyard, roughly 90% of FMV via the instant buyback), not the card’s listed value. A $25 pack whose average pull cashes out at $24 has a −4% ROI.

What is a good ROI on mystery packs?

Anything at or above 0% net of the buyback haircut is unusual — most packs run negative most of the time, which is how the platform earns its margin. PullValue’s rankings show the live cash-out ROI for every tracked Courtyard pack.

Are any Courtyard packs positive-ROI right now?

Sometimes — pools drift as cards get pulled, and packs cross above break-even for stretches. The live rankings and the +EV scanner surface these windows the moment the data shows them; the honest expectation is that they are the exception.

Mystery pack ROI, calculated honestly

By PullValue Research · Updated July 27, 2026 · Numbers computed per our methodology

ROI (return on investment) is what a rip nets you as a share of what you paid: (cash-out value − pack price) ÷ pack price. The word that does all the work is cash-out. A pull's listed FMV is not money — what it converts to in cash is, and on Courtyard that conversion runs through the ~90% instant buyback.

The formula, with a real example

Take our live numbers for the Pokémon Starter Pack: a $25 pack with a calibrated EV around $26 looks +4% on paper. Apply the observed ~93% buyback ratio and the cash-out EV is roughly $24.50 — a −2% expected ROI. Same pack, same data; the only difference is refusing to count paper value as money. Every verdict on this site is computed on the cash number.

The three mistakes that inflate ROI

1. Counting FMV as cash. The buyback haircut is roughly a tenth of every pull, every time — covered in The 90% buyback, explained. 2. Ignoring shipping on redemptions. Physical redemption costs eat small wins entirely — see Shipping & redemption fees. 3. Averaging over the wrong window. Pools drain; a pack's lifetime ROI can be positive while its current pool is stripped. Our calibrated EV weights recent pulls precisely to avoid this trap.

Expected ROI vs realized ROI

Expected ROI describes the average over many rips; your realized ROI is one draw from a wide distribution. On a high-volatility pack, single rips routinely land 50 points away from expectation in either direction. The rip simulator and Monte Carlo panel on each pack page show that spread honestly, and the portfolio tracker computes your personal realized ROI from the rips you record.

Where to check ROI before you buy

The live rankings sort every tracked pack by EV ratio, and the +EV scanner ranks the same packs by cash-out ratio, floor cover, and upside. Both refresh as pulls are indexed — the methodology behind every number is documented on the methodology page.

Quick answers

How do I calculate mystery pack ROI?: ROI = (cash-out value − pack price) ÷ pack price. Use what the pull converts to in cash (on Courtyard, roughly 90% of FMV via the instant buyback), not the card’s listed value. A $25 pack whose average pull cashes out at $24 has a −4% ROI.
What is a good ROI on mystery packs?: Anything at or above 0% net of the buyback haircut is unusual — most packs run negative most of the time, which is how the platform earns its margin. PullValue’s rankings show the live cash-out ROI for every tracked Courtyard pack.
Are any Courtyard packs positive-ROI right now?: Sometimes — pools drift as cards get pulled, and packs cross above break-even for stretches. The live rankings and the +EV scanner surface these windows the moment the data shows them; the honest expectation is that they are the exception.

PullValue is independent and not affiliated with Courtyard. This guide is statistics and education, not financial advice. See live numbers on the pack rankings.