Methodology

Data source and cadence

PullValue indexes Courtyard's public recent-pulls feed roughly every 10 minutes. We record only genuine pack openings (mint events) — marketplace sales and burns are excluded so they cannot distort EV. For each pull we store the card, its grade, its FMV estimate at index time, the best live instant offer we observe, the pack it came from, and the timestamp.

The formulas

EV = mean FMV of all indexed pulls for a pack. Calibrated EV = the same mean with exponential decay weighting (≈5-day half-life), so recent pulls dominate and pool changes show up quickly. Cash-out EV = calibrated EV × the observed buyback ratio (the mean of live offers ÷ FMV; we default to 0.90 when too few offers are indexed). EV ratio = calibrated EV ÷ pack price. Hit rate = share of pulls ≥ pack price. Median = 50th-percentile pull value. Dilution = share of total pulled value contributed by the top 2% of pulls. Trend = change in hourly-bucketed EV over 7 days.

Verdicts

Rip Advisor scores each pack 0–100 from: net cash-out ROI (dominant), median-to-price ratio, 7-day trend, sample-size confidence, and a dilution penalty. BUY requires a positive net ROI and a score ≥ 65; SKIP triggers below 42 or at net ROI worse than −18%. Packs with under 30 indexed pulls get no verdict — small samples are noise. The optional AI briefing receives these computed numbers as fixed inputs and explains them; it cannot invent data.

Pool signals & health score

The lifecycle stage is a rule over observables: below 5 pulls we say nothing (no data); 5–29 is a building sample; no pulls for 14+ days is stale data (state unknown); EV up ≥10% in 7 days with recent pulls above lifetime is a recovery signal — never a confirmed restock; recent pulls ≥7% below lifetime on a top-heavy pool after an observed chase left is a chase-drained signal; ±5% drift bounds separate depleting from healthy.

Pool health (0–100) starts at 50 and moves with: cash-out EV ratio (±25), recent-vs-lifetime drift (±15), floor cover (±10), a concentration penalty (up to −10), and observed chase-removal impact (up to −10). The result is then shrunk toward 50 by sample-size and freshness confidence — thin or stale data converges to "we don't know", never to an extreme score.

What this cannot know: remaining inventory, pool manifests, or restocks. The dilution and chase-removal terms measure how dependent the observed average is on rare hits — not what remains in the pool.

Known limitations

Pack prices are set manually (the public feed doesn't include them) and verified against the store. FMV is Courtyard's estimate and can diverge from eBay or TCGplayer prices in either direction — our cash-out and spread metrics exist precisely because sticker FMV isn't an exit price. Observed odds describe the past pool, not a guarantee about the next pack. Shipping costs vary by location and are flagged, not deducted. History-based features (trends, odds shifts) need days of data before they populate.

Corrections

Found a number that looks wrong? Contact us — verified errors are corrected in the pipeline, not papered over, and this page's review date is updated when the methodology changes.