Pokémon Legend (Spicy)

• Early read: only 18 pulls indexed — this is a lean, not a settled verdict. The numbers can swing hard until the sample reaches 30.
• Cash-out EV is $2,374 on a $2,499 pack (-5.0% net after the ~85% buyback) — the average rip loses money.
• Cash-out EV is $2,374.20 against a $2,499.00 price, and that gap is smaller than the uncertainty around it — the 95% range is $1,613.09 to $3,135.31. On this sample the pack cannot be told apart from break-even in either direction.
• The typical pull (median) is $2,416 — most rips return less than the pack price; the EV is carried by rare chase cards.
• Recent pulls are averaging 10.2% below where they were 7 days ago. That is what the last week returned, not a reading of what is left — Courtyard publishes no inventory. A drop this size is consistent with the better cards having been pulled, and also with an unlucky week.
• Low volatility: steady pack. Fewer duds, but also fewer moonshots.
• Calibrated EV (recent pulls weighted) is $2,781 vs $2,980 lifetime — the pool has gotten worse recently.
• 33.3% of pulls meet or beat the pack price, across 18 indexed pulls.

Verdict is computed transparently from indexed pulls: cash-out ROI, median pull, 7-day trend, hit rate, and sample size. Redemption shipping (typically $16+) is not included — cards worth less than a few times the shipping cost are usually better instant-sold than shipped. Not financial advice.