Is Pokémon VIP (Spicy) worth buying right now?

Our current verdict is NO DATA (score 0/100). No pack price on record, so no net or ROI figure can be computed.

What is the EV of Pokémon VIP (Spicy)?

The calibrated EV is $2,021.82 against a pack price of not yet set, with a typical (median) pull of $883.95 across 196 indexed pulls.

What are the real odds of beating the pack price on Pokémon VIP (Spicy)?

We cannot say yet. Pokémon VIP (Spicy) has no pack price on record, and the odds of beating a price are undefined until there is one to beat. The 196 indexed pulls are still shown below as a record of what has come out.

What is the typical pull from Pokémon VIP (Spicy)?

The median pull is $883.95 — half of all indexed rips returned less than that. The single best recorded pull is $12,308.00.

Pokémon

Pokémon VIP (Spicy)

Pokémon VIP (Spicy) is a Courtyard Pokémon mystery pack with a calibrated expected value of $2,021.82 and a typical (median) pull of $883.95 across 196 indexed pulls. Its pack price is not yet confirmed, so the EV ratio, hit rate, and Rip Advisor verdict are pending.

Calibrated EV

$2,022

— ROI

HIGH CONFIDENCE · 196 pulls (54 effective) · todaySIGNAL Weakening · 15 h ago

Calibrated EV: $2,022
Cash-out EV: $1,823
Pack price: Unknown
Typical pull: $884
Hit rate: —
Lifetime EV: $1,756
Pulls indexed: 196
Last pull: 14h ago

01 / Rip Advisor

Is Pokémon VIP (Spicy) worth it right now?

score 0/100NO DATA

050100

No pack price on record, so no net or ROI figure can be computed.

Log this decision:

Verdict is computed transparently from indexed pulls: cash-out ROI, median pull, 7-day trend, hit rate, and sample size. Redemption shipping (typically $16+) is not included — cards worth less than a few times the shipping cost are usually better instant-sold than shipped. Not financial advice.

02 / Pool signals

What's happening in the Pokémon VIP (Spicy) pool

Lifecycle stage, health, and chase removals — read from indexed pulls, never guessed.

No price set — pool economics can’t be computed.

NO DATA

No price set — pool economics can’t be computed.

Pro adds the Pool Health score and chase-removal impact.

Not observable: packs remaining, value remaining, and which chases are still in the pool — Courtyard publishes a pull feed, not inventory. We label those unavailable rather than estimate them. Everything above is computed from indexed pulls and EV snapshots; thin or stale data pulls the score toward neutral. Formula

Chase tracker

No pack price set, so a chase tier cannot be anchored.

Signal lifetime

SIGNAL Weakening · 15 h ago

Pull flow has slowed past the usual gap of 6.8 h, so this read is ageing faster than the pack is producing evidence. At the observed pull rate, half the evidence behind this read is replaced in about 56 days.

Newest pull: 15 h; observed
Pull rate: 3.5/day; observed
Pulls, 7d: 25; observed
Half-life: Pro

Aged, not predicted. Half-life counts how fast new evidence arrives, measured from real pull timestamps — it is not a forecast of where EV is heading. We publish no EV-drift half-life because our snapshot history is still too short for a regression to mean anything. The seeded placeholder points this note used to warn about have been flagged in the database and excluded from every chart, trend and score, so what you see plotted is observed data. Note the headline EV is decay-weighted, so it reacts to new pulls sooner than this whole-sample horizon implies. Methodology

03 / Contents

What has come out of Pokémon VIP (Spicy)

The eras, sets and cards this pack has actually produced. A record of past pulls — Courtyard publishes no inventory, so this is not a statement about what is left.

By era

Cards seen range from 1996 to 2026.

Modern (2010-2019)32%$1,583 avg
Retro (2000-2009)30%$2,279 avg
Current (2020+)20%$1,097 avg
Vintage (pre-2000)18%$1,911 avg

Most common sets

Sets these pulls came from.

Pokémon Game4%$1,629 avg
Pokémon Rocket3%$903 avg
Double Crisis2%$876 avg
Pokémon Gym Challenge2%$4,593 avg
Pokémon Paf EN-Paldean Fates2%$1,355 avg
Pokémon Promo2%$2,669 avg
Pokémon SM Black Star Promo2%$1,116 avg
Pokémon Swsh Black Star Promo2%$1,119 avg

Cards seen most often

Named on 98% of readable pulls. The rest do not print a card number, and without one the card cannot be told apart from the set name.

Charizard6%$1,821 avg
Pikachu5%$1,638 avg
Mew EX5%$1,518 avg
Gengar3%$2,405 avg
Charizard EX2%$2,639 avg
M Rayquaza EX2%$764 avg
Team Aqua's Kyogre EX2%$876 avg
Gengar EX2%$763 avg

Built from the 196 indexed pulls of this pack so far — a record of what has come out, not a promise about what is left.

04 / Floor safety

Pokémon VIP (Spicy) floor safety & buyback reality

The two ways average EV lies to you — how top-heavy the pack is, and what FMV actually converts to in cash — then which exit pays most.

In Pokémon VIP (Spicy), the top 2% of pulls account for 12% of all pulled value — low dilution. Value is spread fairly evenly across the pool, so the average is close to what a typical rip returns. The observed instant-offer ratio is 90% of FMV, which is the cash number every verdict on this page already uses.

Floor safety

low dilution

12% of everything this pack has paid out came from just the top 2% of pulls. Value is spread broadly across pulls, so the average sits closer to the typical rip here than it does on a top-heavy pack. It still sits above the median — check both.

Buyback reality

90.2% of FMV observed

Across 191 indexed pulls that carry a recorded bid, a $100 FMV pull cashes out around $90 if you instant-sell — better than the platform's 84.6%. This is the figure every verdict on the site multiplies by.

Measured per card rather than per dollar the ratio is 89.8% — higher because cheaper cards draw proportionally better offers. That one describes a single card; the 90.2% above describes a basket, which is what an expected value needs.

Holding, listing, or physically redeeming can beat the instant offer — but redemption shipping (typically $16+) eats small wins.

Net exit value

191 paired pulls · 97% bid coverage · confidence 100%

Instant-selling the average (mean) pull here returns $1,596.60 — $174.07 below sticker FMV (9.8% haircut). That figure is the average of bids we actually recorded, not the platform rate applied blind.

Pro compares all three exits side by side, with the redemption breakeven and the value-by-value haircut curve for this pack.

Bids are recorded, resale is not. Instant-buyback figures are real offers captured at index time and can move. Redemption shipping starts near $16 in the US, is higher internationally, and is charged per shipment — batching pulls lowers it. We publish no resale estimate, liquidity score, or time-to-sell, because no such data is available to us. How buyback works

05 / Observed odds

Pokémon VIP (Spicy) odds — observed, not posted

Reconstructed from real pulls, so it shows what has actually been coming out — posted odds can't do that. It is a record of pulls, not a count of what is left.

Under $4420.0%· stable
$442 – $88450.0%· stable
$884 – $1,768 · beats the pack28.1%· stable
$1,768 – $4,420 · big hit14.3%· stable
$4,420+ · chase7.7%· stable

Observed across 196 indexed pulls — what actually came out of this pack, independent of the posted odds. The 48h column shows tier drift: a falling green tier means fewer of the good cards have come out lately — which may mean they are running out, or may just be a quiet 48 hours.

07 / Big hits

Biggest Pokémon VIP (Spicy) pulls

2000 Pokémon Gym Challenge #4 Erika's Venusaur - 1st Edition Holo (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$12,308PSA 10 GEM MINT

1997 Pokémon Fossil #94 Gengar - Holo (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$10,175PSA 10 GEM MINT

2012 Pokémon Black & White Team Plasma Battle Gift Set #005 Darkrai - Full Art (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$10,114PSA 10 GEM MINT

2005 Pokémon EX Unseen Forces #D/28 Unown - Holo (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$9,800PSA 10 GEM MINT

2009 Pokémon Advent of Arceus #043 Gengar LV.X - 1st Edition Holo (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$8,541PSA 10 GEM MINT

1998 Pokémon Promo #25 Pikachu Birthday - White Star-2nd Anniv. (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$7,535PSA 10 GEM MINT

2005 Pokémon Master Kit #003 Rayquaza EX - 1st Edition Holo Holo Side Deck (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$7,512PSA 10 GEM MINT

2005 Pokémon EX Unseen Forces #112 Umbreon EX - Holo (PSA 8 NM-MT)

$7,145PSA 8 NM-MT

08 / EV history

Pokémon VIP (Spicy) EV over time

Snapshot per scraper run. The dashed line is break-even — EV above it is +EV.

Calibrated EV currently sits at $2,021.82, and has moved down 22.8% over the last 7 days.

$2021.82EV

09 / Quick answers

Pokémon VIP (Spicy) — quick answers

Is Pokémon VIP (Spicy) worth buying right now?: Our current verdict is NO DATA (score 0/100). No pack price on record, so no net or ROI figure can be computed.
What is the EV of Pokémon VIP (Spicy)?: The calibrated EV is $2,021.82 against a pack price of not yet set, with a typical (median) pull of $883.95 across 196 indexed pulls.
What are the real odds of beating the pack price on Pokémon VIP (Spicy)?: We cannot say yet. Pokémon VIP (Spicy) has no pack price on record, and the odds of beating a price are undefined until there is one to beat. The 196 indexed pulls are still shown below as a record of what has come out.
What is the typical pull from Pokémon VIP (Spicy)?: The median pull is $883.95 — half of all indexed rips returned less than that. The single best recorded pull is $12,308.00.

10 / Pull log