Is Pokémon Mythic Pack worth buying right now?

Our current verdict is SKIP (score 20/100). Early read: only 20 pulls indexed — this is a lean, not a settled verdict. The numbers can swing hard until the sample reaches 30.

What is the EV of Pokémon Mythic Pack?

The calibrated EV is $4,393.09 against a pack price of $5,000.00, with a typical (median) pull of $4,220.05 across 20 indexed pulls.

What are the real odds of beating the pack price on Pokémon Mythic Pack?

20.0% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. These are observed odds reconstructed from real pulls, not the posted odds.

What is the typical pull from Pokémon Mythic Pack?

The median pull is $4,220.05 — half of all indexed rips returned less than that. The single best recorded pull is $8,240.00.

Pokémon

Pokémon Mythic Pack

Pokémon Mythic Pack is a $5,000 Courtyard Pokémon mystery pack with a calibrated expected value of $4,393.09, worth $3,867.24 at its observed 88% buyback — a cash-out ratio of 0.773x (0.879x at sticker FMV), so it currently returns less than its price on the average rip once the buyback haircut is taken. 20.0% of 20 indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Early Rip Advisor lean (small sample): SKIP (20/100).

Ranked #66 of 76 ranked packs by cash-out ratio, #11 of 13 Pokémon packs.

This pack is no longer sold on Courtyard — the numbers below are its historical record.

Cash-out ratio

0.773x

$3,867.24 back on a $5,000 pack, at this pack's observed 88% buyback. At sticker FMV it is 0.879x.

95% range $3,378.81–$4,355.67, clear of the $5,000 price.

SKIP-22.7% ROI

EMERGING · 20 pulls · 3dSIGNAL Stale · 4 days ago

Calibrated EV: $4,393
Cash-out EV: $3,867
Pack price: $5,000
Typical pull: $4,220
Hit rate: 20.0%
Lifetime EV: $4,563
Pulls indexed: 20
Last pull: 3d ago

01 / Rip Advisor

Is Pokémon Mythic Pack worth it right now?

Early readscore 20/100SKIP

050100

Early read: only 20 pulls indexed — this is a lean, not a settled verdict. The numbers can swing hard until the sample reaches 30.
Cash-out EV is $3,867 on a $5,000 pack (-22.7% net after the ~88% buyback) — the average rip loses money.
Cash-out EV is $3,867.24, and the sample is precise enough to place it below the $5,000.00 price: the 95% range is $3,378.81 to $4,355.67, which does not include the price.
The typical pull (median) is $4,220 — most rips return less than the pack price; the EV is carried by rare chase cards.
Recent pulls are averaging 4.8% below where they were 7 days ago. That is what the last week returned, not a reading of what is left — Courtyard publishes no inventory. A drop this size is consistent with the better cards having been pulled, and also with an unlucky week.
Low volatility: steady pack. Fewer duds, but also fewer moonshots.
20.0% of pulls meet or beat the pack price, across 20 indexed pulls.

Log this decision:

Verdict is computed transparently from indexed pulls: cash-out ROI, median pull, 7-day trend, hit rate, and sample size. Redemption shipping (typically $16+) is not included — cards worth less than a few times the shipping cost are usually better instant-sold than shipped. Not financial advice.

02 / Pool signals

What's happening in the Pokémon Mythic Pack pool

Lifecycle stage, health, and chase removals — read from indexed pulls, never guessed.

20 pulls indexed — drift math needs 30+ to mean anything. Early read only.

BUILDING SAMPLE

20 pulls indexed — drift math needs 30+ to mean anything. Early read only.

Pro adds the Pool Health score and chase-removal impact.

Not observable: packs remaining, value remaining, and which chases are still in the pool — Courtyard publishes a pull feed, not inventory. We label those unavailable rather than estimate them. Everything above is computed from indexed pulls and EV snapshots; thin or stale data pulls the score toward neutral. Formula

Chase tracker

Needs 30+ indexed pulls to define a chase tier for this pack — 20 so far.

Signal lifetime

SIGNAL Stale · 4 days ago

No new pulls for well past this pack's usual gap (typically 26 h). It may be paused, sold out, or no longer indexed. At the observed pull rate, half the evidence behind this read is replaced in about 22 days.

Newest pull: 4 days; observed
Pull rate: 0.9/day; observed
Pulls, 7d: 3; observed
Half-life: Pro

Aged, not predicted. Half-life counts how fast new evidence arrives, measured from real pull timestamps — it is not a forecast of where EV is heading. We publish no EV-drift half-life because our snapshot history is still too short for a regression to mean anything. The seeded placeholder points this note used to warn about have been flagged in the database and excluded from every chart, trend and score, so what you see plotted is observed data. Note the headline EV is decay-weighted, so it reacts to new pulls sooner than this whole-sample horizon implies. Methodology

03 / Contents

What has come out of Pokémon Mythic Pack

The eras, sets and cards this pack has actually produced. A record of past pulls — Courtyard publishes no inventory, so this is not a statement about what is left.

Only 20 pulls indexed. Below 25 the proportions below move a lot on a single pull — read them as examples of what has appeared, not as a profile of the pack.

By era

Cards seen range from 1997 to 2025.

Modern (2010-2019)45%$4,728 avg
Current (2020+)20%$4,203 avg
Vintage (pre-2000)20%$4,250 avg
Retro (2000-2009)15%$4,963 avg

Most common sets

Sets these pulls came from.

Pokémon Pal EN-Paldea Evolved10%$3,783 avg
Neo Destiny5%$4,564 avg
Pokémon Fossil5%$4,004 avg
Pokémon Game5%$4,049 avg
Pokémon Gift Box Mew5%$5,915 avg
Pokémon Heartgold & Soulsilver Triumphant5%$4,425 avg
Pokémon Pre EN-Prismatic Evolutions5%$5,220 avg
Pokémon Promo5%$8,240 avg

Cards seen most often

Named on every readable pull.

Pikachu15%$4,645 avg
Magikarp10%$3,783 avg
Chansey5%$4,284 avg
Charizard GX-Hyper5%$4,461 avg
Dark Charizard5%$4,661 avg
Ditto5%$4,004 avg
Gardevoir & Sylveon GX5%$5,776 avg
Gengar5%$4,425 avg

Built from the 20 indexed pulls of this pack so far — a record of what has come out, not a promise about what is left.

07 / Big hits

Biggest Pokémon Mythic Pack pulls

2010 Pokémon Promo #071 Kyogre - Holo Legendary Pokemon Present Campaign (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$8,240PSA 10 GEM MINT

2005 Pokémon Gift Box Mew #001 Pikachu - Holo Gold Star (PSA 8 NM-MT)

$5,915PSA 8 NM-MT

2019 Pokémon Sun & Moon Unbroken Bonds #205 Gardevoir & Sylveon GX - Holo Full Art (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$5,776PSA 10 GEM MINT

2025 Pokémon Pre EN-Prismatic Evolutions #161 Umbreon EX - Holo Special Illustration Rare (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$5,220PSA 10 GEM MINT

1997 Pokémon Rocket #6 Dark Charizard - Holo (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$4,661PSA 10 GEM MINT

2002 Neo Destiny #107 Shining Charizard - Holo (BGS 9 MINT)

$4,564BGS 9 MINT

2017 Pokémon Sun & Moon to Have Seen the Battle Rainbow #058 Charizard GX-Hyper - Full Art (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$4,461PSA 10 GEM MINT

2010 Pokémon Heartgold & Soulsilver Triumphant #94 Gengar - Holo (PSA 9 MINT)

$4,425PSA 9 MINT

08 / EV history

Pokémon Mythic Pack EV over time

Snapshot per scraper run. The dashed line is break-even — EV above it is +EV.

Calibrated EV currently sits at $4,393.09, below the $5,000 pack price, and has moved down 4.8% over the last 7 days.

0.773xCash-out ratio

09 / Quick answers

Pokémon Mythic Pack — quick answers

Is Pokémon Mythic Pack worth buying right now?: Our current verdict is SKIP (score 20/100). Early read: only 20 pulls indexed — this is a lean, not a settled verdict. The numbers can swing hard until the sample reaches 30.
What is the EV of Pokémon Mythic Pack?: The calibrated EV is $4,393.09 against a pack price of $5,000.00, with a typical (median) pull of $4,220.05 across 20 indexed pulls.
What are the real odds of beating the pack price on Pokémon Mythic Pack?: 20.0% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. These are observed odds reconstructed from real pulls, not the posted odds.
What is the typical pull from Pokémon Mythic Pack?: The median pull is $4,220.05 — half of all indexed rips returned less than that. The single best recorded pull is $8,240.00.

10 / Pull log