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Pokémon Diamond Pack vs Pokémon Mythic Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Pokémon Mythic Pack is currently the better value: a 0.850x cash-out ratio against Pokémon Diamond Pack's 0.827x, across 168 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricPokémon Diamond PackPokémon Mythic Pack
VerdictSKIPSKIP
Pack price$1000$5000
Calibrated EV$977.12$4973.02
Cash-out ratio0.827x0.850x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)0.977x0.995x
Median pull$889.00$4200.50
Hit rate31.2%24.0%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.32x0.43x
Pulls indexed9375

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Pokémon Diamond Pack: 915 points from Aug 3 to Oct 25, starting at 0.75x and ending at 0.83x, up overall (+10.0%), ranging between 0.70x and 1.02x. Pokémon Mythic Pack: 804 points from Aug 11 to Oct 25, starting at 0.76x and ending at 0.85x, up overall (+12.4%), ranging between 0.71x and 0.96x.

Pokémon Diamond PackPokémon Mythic Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Pokémon Diamond Pack vs Pokémon Mythic Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Pokémon Diamond Pack or Pokémon Mythic Pack?
Pokémon Mythic Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.850x vs 0.827x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Pokémon Diamond Pack: 31.2% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Pokémon Mythic Pack: 24.0%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Pokémon Mythic Pack has the higher volatility (0.43x vs 0.32x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Pokémon Diamond Pack EV & verdict · Pokémon Mythic Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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