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Pokémon Diamond Pack vs Pokémon Mythic Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Pokémon Diamond Pack is currently the better value: a 0.970x cash-out ratio against Pokémon Mythic Pack's 0.818x, across 19 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricPokémon Diamond PackPokémon Mythic Pack
VerdictCAUTIONSKIP
Pack price$1000$5000
Calibrated EV$1146.34$4831.64
Cash-out ratio0.970x0.818x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)1.146x0.966x
Median pull$851.50$4461.00
Hit rate16.7%14.3%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.19x0.12x
Pulls indexed127

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Pokémon Diamond Pack: 397 points from Aug 3 to Sep 10, starting at 0.75x and ending at 0.97x, up overall (+29.0%), ranging between 0.70x and 0.97x. Pokémon Mythic Pack: 286 points from Aug 11 to Sep 10, starting at 0.75x and ending at 0.82x, up overall (+9.2%), ranging between 0.71x and 0.95x.

Pokémon Diamond PackPokémon Mythic Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Pokémon Diamond Pack vs Pokémon Mythic Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Pokémon Diamond Pack or Pokémon Mythic Pack?
Pokémon Diamond Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.970x vs 0.818x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Pokémon Diamond Pack: 16.7% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Pokémon Mythic Pack: 14.3%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Pokémon Diamond Pack has the higher volatility (0.19x vs 0.12x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Pokémon Diamond Pack EV & verdict · Pokémon Mythic Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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