Is Pokémon Diamond Pack worth buying right now?

Our current verdict is SKIP (score 17/100). Early read: only 26 pulls indexed — this is a lean, not a settled verdict. The numbers can swing hard until the sample reaches 30.

What is the EV of Pokémon Diamond Pack?

The calibrated EV is $927.68 against a pack price of $1,000.00, with a typical (median) pull of $854.75 across 26 indexed pulls.

What are the real odds of beating the pack price on Pokémon Diamond Pack?

15.4% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. These are observed odds reconstructed from real pulls, not the posted odds.

What is the typical pull from Pokémon Diamond Pack?

The median pull is $854.75 — half of all indexed rips returned less than that. The single best recorded pull is $1,887.20.

Pokémon

Pokémon Diamond Pack

Pokémon Diamond Pack is a $1,000 Courtyard Pokémon mystery pack with a calibrated expected value of $927.68, worth $784.82 at its observed 85% buyback — a cash-out ratio of 0.785x (0.928x at sticker FMV), so it currently returns less than its price on the average rip once the buyback haircut is taken. 15.4% of 26 indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Early Rip Advisor lean (small sample): SKIP (17/100).

Ranked #62 of 74 ranked packs by cash-out ratio, #12 of 14 Pokémon packs.

This pack is no longer sold on Courtyard — the numbers below are its historical record.

Cash-out ratio

0.785x

$784.82 back on a $1,000 pack, at this pack's observed 85% buyback. At sticker FMV it is 0.928x.

95% range $670.34–$899.29, clear of the $1,000 price.

SKIP-21.5% ROI

EMERGING · 26 pulls · todaySIGNAL Weakening · 15 h ago

Calibrated EV: $928
Cash-out EV: $785
Pack price: $1,000
Typical pull: $855
Hit rate: 15.4%
Lifetime EV: $915
Pulls indexed: 26
Last pull: 14h ago

01 / Rip Advisor

Is Pokémon Diamond Pack worth it right now?

Early readscore 17/100SKIP

050100

Early read: only 26 pulls indexed — this is a lean, not a settled verdict. The numbers can swing hard until the sample reaches 30.
Cash-out EV is $785 on a $1,000 pack (-21.5% net after the ~85% buyback) — the average rip loses money.
Cash-out EV is $784.82, and the sample is precise enough to place it below the $1,000.00 price: the 95% range is $670.34 to $899.29, which does not include the price.
The typical pull (median) is $855 — most rips return less than the pack price; the EV is carried by rare chase cards.
Recent pulls are averaging 19.1% below where they were 7 days ago. That is what the last week returned, not a reading of what is left — Courtyard publishes no inventory. A drop this size is consistent with the better cards having been pulled, and also with an unlucky week.
Low volatility: steady pack. Fewer duds, but also fewer moonshots.
15.4% of pulls meet or beat the pack price, across 26 indexed pulls.

Log this decision:

Verdict is computed transparently from indexed pulls: cash-out ROI, median pull, 7-day trend, hit rate, and sample size. Redemption shipping (typically $16+) is not included — cards worth less than a few times the shipping cost are usually better instant-sold than shipped. Not financial advice.

02 / Pool signals

What's happening in the Pokémon Diamond Pack pool

Lifecycle stage, health, and chase removals — read from indexed pulls, never guessed.

26 pulls indexed — drift math needs 30+ to mean anything. Early read only.

BUILDING SAMPLE

26 pulls indexed — drift math needs 30+ to mean anything. Early read only.

Pro adds the Pool Health score and chase-removal impact.

Not observable: packs remaining, value remaining, and which chases are still in the pool — Courtyard publishes a pull feed, not inventory. We label those unavailable rather than estimate them. Everything above is computed from indexed pulls and EV snapshots; thin or stale data pulls the score toward neutral. Formula

Chase tracker

Needs 30+ indexed pulls to define a chase tier for this pack — 26 so far.

Signal lifetime

SIGNAL Weakening · 15 h ago

Pull flow has slowed past the usual gap of 10 h, so this read is ageing faster than the pack is producing evidence. At the observed pull rate, half the evidence behind this read is replaced in about 11 days.

Newest pull: 15 h; observed
Pull rate: 2.4/day; observed
Pulls, 7d: 14; observed
Half-life: Pro

Aged, not predicted. Half-life counts how fast new evidence arrives, measured from real pull timestamps — it is not a forecast of where EV is heading. We publish no EV-drift half-life because our snapshot history is still too short for a regression to mean anything. The seeded placeholder points this note used to warn about have been flagged in the database and excluded from every chart, trend and score, so what you see plotted is observed data. Note the headline EV is decay-weighted, so it reacts to new pulls sooner than this whole-sample horizon implies. Methodology

03 / Contents

What has come out of Pokémon Diamond Pack

The eras, sets and cards this pack has actually produced. A record of past pulls — Courtyard publishes no inventory, so this is not a statement about what is left.

By era

Cards seen range from 1999 to 2026.

Modern (2010-2019)50%$863 avg
Retro (2000-2009)27%$868 avg
Current (2020+)19%$1,140 avg
Vintage (pre-2000)4%$790 avg

Most common sets

Sets these pulls came from.

Pokémon Pfl EN-Phantasmal Flames8%$749 avg
Pokémon XY Phantom Forces8%$759 avg
Collect 151 - 151 C - Simplified4%$1,887 avg
EX Fire Red & Leaf Green4%$896 avg
Phantom Forces4%$1,056 avg
Pokémon 10th Movie Commemoration Promo Tree of Beginning's Mew4%$939 avg
Pokémon Asc EN-Ascended Heroes4%$1,319 avg
Pokémon Clc-Trading Card Game Classic Charizard & HO-Oh EX Deck4%$993 avg

Cards seen most often

Named on 96% of readable pulls. The rest do not print a card number, and without one the card cannot be told apart from the set name.

Charizard8%$891 avg
Gengar EX8%$921 avg
Mega Charizard X EX8%$749 avg
Blastoise4%$802 avg
Bulbasaur4%$896 avg
Dark Charizard4%$710 avg
Dialga EX4%$731 avg
Eevee GX-Hyper4%$814 avg

Built from the 26 indexed pulls of this pack so far — a record of what has come out, not a promise about what is left.

07 / Big hits

Biggest Pokémon Diamond Pack pulls

2024 Collect 151 - 151 C - Simplified #171 Pikachu - Art Rare Holo (BGS 10 PRISTINE)

$1,887BGS 10 PRISTINE

2026 Pokémon Asc EN-Ascended Heroes #290 Mega Dragonite EX - Holo Special Illustration Rare (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$1,319PSA 10 GEM MINT

2015 Pokémon XY Roaring Skies #104 Rayquaza EX - Holo Full Art (PSA 9 MINT)

$1,108PSA 9 MINT

2014 Phantom Forces #114/119 Gengar EX - Ultra Rare Holo (CGC 8.5 NM-MT+)

$1,056CGC 8.5 NM-MT+

2023 Pokémon Clc-Trading Card Game Classic Charizard & HO-Oh EX Deck #003 Charizard (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$993PSA 10 GEM MINT

2009 Pokémon Platinum Arceus #98 Salamence LV.X - Holo (PSA 9 MINT)

$973PSA 9 MINT

2002 Pokémon Mysterious Mountains #053 Machamp - 1st Edition Holo (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$943PSA 10 GEM MINT

2016 Pokémon XY Evolutions #51 Mewtwo - Reverse Foil (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$940PSA 10 GEM MINT

08 / EV history

Pokémon Diamond Pack EV over time

Snapshot per scraper run. The dashed line is break-even — EV above it is +EV.

Calibrated EV currently sits at $927.68, below the $1,000 pack price, and has moved down 19.1% over the last 7 days.

0.785xCash-out ratio

09 / Quick answers

Pokémon Diamond Pack — quick answers

Is Pokémon Diamond Pack worth buying right now?: Our current verdict is SKIP (score 17/100). Early read: only 26 pulls indexed — this is a lean, not a settled verdict. The numbers can swing hard until the sample reaches 30.
What is the EV of Pokémon Diamond Pack?: The calibrated EV is $927.68 against a pack price of $1,000.00, with a typical (median) pull of $854.75 across 26 indexed pulls.
What are the real odds of beating the pack price on Pokémon Diamond Pack?: 15.4% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. These are observed odds reconstructed from real pulls, not the posted odds.
What is the typical pull from Pokémon Diamond Pack?: The median pull is $854.75 — half of all indexed rips returned less than that. The single best recorded pull is $1,887.20.

10 / Pull log