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Pokémon Diamond Pack vs Pokémon Legend Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Pokémon Diamond Pack is currently the better value: a 0.903x cash-out ratio against Pokémon Legend Pack's 0.874x, across 198 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricPokémon Diamond PackPokémon Legend Pack
VerdictCAUTIONCAUTION
Pack price$1000$2500
Calibrated EV$1067.06$2583.41
Cash-out ratio0.903x0.874x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)1.067x1.033x
Median pull$895.30$2101.40
Hit rate36.5%22.9%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.40x0.26x
Pulls indexed13761

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Pokémon Diamond Pack: 1000 points from Aug 7 to Nov 3, starting at 0.75x and ending at 0.90x, up overall (+20.1%), ranging between 0.70x and 1.02x. Pokémon Legend Pack: 949 points from Aug 12 to Nov 3, starting at 0.93x and ending at 0.87x, down overall (-6.4%), ranging between 0.64x and 0.93x.

Pokémon Diamond PackPokémon Legend Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Pokémon Diamond Pack vs Pokémon Legend Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Pokémon Diamond Pack or Pokémon Legend Pack?
Pokémon Diamond Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.903x vs 0.874x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Pokémon Diamond Pack: 36.5% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Pokémon Legend Pack: 22.9%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Pokémon Diamond Pack has the higher volatility (0.40x vs 0.26x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Pokémon Diamond Pack EV & verdict · Pokémon Legend Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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