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Pokémon Legend (Spicy) vs Pokémon Mythic Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Pokémon Mythic Pack is currently the better value: a 0.880x cash-out ratio against Pokémon Legend (Spicy)'s 0.857x, across 154 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricPokémon Legend (Spicy)Pokémon Mythic Pack
VerdictSKIPSKIP
Pack price$2499$5000
Calibrated EV$2507.53$5145.16
Cash-out ratio0.857x0.880x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)1.003x1.029x
Median pull$2232.55$4213.40
Hit rate31.7%23.6%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.55x0.44x
Pulls indexed8272

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Pokémon Legend (Spicy): 788 points from Aug 11 to Oct 23, starting at 0.72x and ending at 0.86x, up overall (+18.9%), ranging between 0.71x and 1.55x. Pokémon Mythic Pack: 791 points from Aug 11 to Oct 23, starting at 0.76x and ending at 0.88x, up overall (+16.2%), ranging between 0.71x and 0.96x.

Pokémon Legend (Spicy)Pokémon Mythic Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Pokémon Legend (Spicy) vs Pokémon Mythic Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Pokémon Legend (Spicy) or Pokémon Mythic Pack?
Pokémon Mythic Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.880x vs 0.857x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Pokémon Legend (Spicy): 31.7% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Pokémon Mythic Pack: 23.6%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Pokémon Legend (Spicy) has the higher volatility (0.55x vs 0.44x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Pokémon Legend (Spicy) EV & verdict · Pokémon Mythic Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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