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Pokémon Master Pack vs Pokémon Pro Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Pokémon Pro Pack is currently the better value: a 0.904x cash-out ratio against Pokémon Master Pack's 0.829x, across 1,575 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricPokémon Master PackPokémon Pro Pack
VerdictSKIPCAUTION
Pack price$100$50
Calibrated EV$97.81$52.45
Cash-out ratio0.829x0.904x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)0.978x1.049x
Median pull$86.70$43.70
Hit rate25.3%29.1%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.37x0.59x
Pulls indexed4861,089

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Pokémon Master Pack: 525 points from Jul 3 to Sep 10, starting at 1.08x and ending at 0.83x, down overall (-23.3%), ranging between 0.72x and 1.08x. Pokémon Pro Pack: 525 points from Jul 3 to Sep 10, starting at 0.66x and ending at 0.90x, up overall (+37.4%), ranging between 0.66x and 0.96x.

Pokémon Master PackPokémon Pro Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Pokémon Master Pack vs Pokémon Pro Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Pokémon Master Pack or Pokémon Pro Pack?
Pokémon Pro Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.904x vs 0.829x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Pokémon Master Pack: 25.3% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Pokémon Pro Pack: 29.1%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Pokémon Pro Pack has the higher volatility (0.59x vs 0.37x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Pokémon Master Pack EV & verdict · Pokémon Pro Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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