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Pokémon Master Pack vs Pokémon Starter Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Pokémon Starter Pack is currently the better value: a 0.972x cash-out ratio against Pokémon Master Pack's 0.857x, across 38,237 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricPokémon Master PackPokémon Starter Pack
VerdictSKIPCAUTION
Pack price$100$25
Calibrated EV$100.46$27.11
Cash-out ratio0.857x0.972x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)1.005x1.084x
Median pull$86.90$22.20
Hit rate29.7%30.1%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.49x0.61x
Pulls indexed5,52032,717

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Pokémon Master Pack: 1000 points from Aug 8 to Nov 3, starting at 0.84x and ending at 0.86x, up overall (+2.1%), ranging between 0.78x and 0.88x. Pokémon Starter Pack: 1000 points from Aug 8 to Nov 3, starting at 0.89x and ending at 0.97x, up overall (+9.0%), ranging between 0.88x and 0.97x.

Pokémon Master PackPokémon Starter Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Pokémon Master Pack vs Pokémon Starter Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Pokémon Master Pack or Pokémon Starter Pack?
Pokémon Starter Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.972x vs 0.857x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Pokémon Master Pack: 29.7% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Pokémon Starter Pack: 30.1%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Pokémon Starter Pack has the higher volatility (0.61x vs 0.49x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Pokémon Master Pack EV & verdict · Pokémon Starter Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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