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Pokémon Master Pack vs Pokémon Starter Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Pokémon Master Pack is currently the better value: a 0.875x cash-out ratio against Pokémon Starter Pack's 0.875x, across 7,435 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricPokémon Master PackPokémon Starter Pack
VerdictCAUTIONSKIP
Pack price$100$25
Calibrated EV$102.56$24.75
Cash-out ratio0.875x0.875x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)1.026x0.990x
Median pull$86.70$21.90
Hit rate28.1%25.6%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.48x0.45x
Pulls indexed1,1606,275

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Pokémon Master Pack: 585 points from Jul 12 to Sep 18, starting at 0.72x and ending at 0.88x, up overall (+20.7%), ranging between 0.72x and 0.92x. Pokémon Starter Pack: 585 points from Jul 12 to Sep 18, starting at 0.89x and ending at 0.88x, down overall (-1.6%), ranging between 0.84x and 0.93x.

Pokémon Master PackPokémon Starter Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Pokémon Master Pack vs Pokémon Starter Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Pokémon Master Pack or Pokémon Starter Pack?
Pokémon Master Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.875x vs 0.875x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Pokémon Master Pack: 28.1% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Pokémon Starter Pack: 25.6%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Pokémon Master Pack has the higher volatility (0.48x vs 0.45x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Pokémon Master Pack EV & verdict · Pokémon Starter Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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