Pokémon Ultra Pack vs Pokémon Ultra (Spicy): which pack is the better rip?
On live data, Pokémon Ultra (Spicy) is currently the better value: a 0.878x cash-out ratio against Pokémon Ultra Pack's 0.812x, across 179 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.
| Metric | Pokémon Ultra Pack | Pokémon Ultra (Spicy) |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | SKIP | SKIP |
| Pack price | $250 | $249 |
| Calibrated EV | $239.84 | $258.43 |
| Cash-out ratio | 0.812x | 0.878x |
| EV ratio (at sticker FMV) | 0.959x | 1.038x |
| Median pull | $210.00 | $167.70 |
| Hit rate | 24.6% | 35.3% |
| Volatility (stddev/EV) | 0.57x | 0.80x |
| Pulls indexed | 57 | 122 |
02 / EV history
EV ratio over time, overlaid
Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Pokémon Ultra Pack: 459 points from Jul 28 to Sep 10, starting at 2.21x and ending at 0.81x, down overall (-63.3%), ranging between 0.75x and 2.21x. Pokémon Ultra (Spicy): 525 points from Jul 3 to Sep 10, starting at 1.33x and ending at 0.88x, down overall (-33.9%), ranging between 0.45x and 1.59x.
Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.
03 / Quick answers
Pokémon Ultra Pack vs Pokémon Ultra (Spicy) — quick answers
- Which is better value right now: Pokémon Ultra Pack or Pokémon Ultra (Spicy)?
- Pokémon Ultra (Spicy) currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.878x vs 0.812x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
- Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
- Pokémon Ultra Pack: 24.6% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Pokémon Ultra (Spicy): 35.3%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
- Which pack is riskier?
- Pokémon Ultra (Spicy) has the higher volatility (0.80x vs 0.57x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.
Full pages: Pokémon Ultra Pack EV & verdict · Pokémon Ultra (Spicy) EV & verdict · Why average EV lies