Pokémon Ultra Pack vs Pokémon Ultra (Spicy): which pack is the better rip?
On live data, Pokémon Ultra (Spicy) is currently the better value: a 0.890x cash-out ratio against Pokémon Ultra Pack's 0.873x, across 2,122 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.
| Metric | Pokémon Ultra Pack | Pokémon Ultra (Spicy) |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | SKIP | SKIP |
| Pack price | $250 | $249 |
| Calibrated EV | $257.81 | $261.72 |
| Cash-out ratio | 0.873x | 0.890x |
| EV ratio (at sticker FMV) | 1.031x | 1.051x |
| Median pull | $213.70 | $197.20 |
| Hit rate | 29.6% | 37.4% |
| Volatility (stddev/EV) | 0.69x | 0.75x |
| Pulls indexed | 459 | 1,663 |
02 / EV history
EV ratio over time, overlaid
Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Pokémon Ultra Pack: 970 points from Jul 28 to Oct 25, starting at 2.22x and ending at 0.87x, down overall (-60.6%), ranging between 0.75x and 2.22x. Pokémon Ultra (Spicy): 981 points from Jul 12 to Oct 25, starting at 1.58x and ending at 0.89x, down overall (-43.7%), ranging between 0.45x and 1.58x.
Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.
03 / Quick answers
Pokémon Ultra Pack vs Pokémon Ultra (Spicy) — quick answers
- Which is better value right now: Pokémon Ultra Pack or Pokémon Ultra (Spicy)?
- Pokémon Ultra (Spicy) currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.890x vs 0.873x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
- Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
- Pokémon Ultra Pack: 29.6% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Pokémon Ultra (Spicy): 37.4%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
- Which pack is riskier?
- Pokémon Ultra (Spicy) has the higher volatility (0.75x vs 0.69x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.
Full pages: Pokémon Ultra Pack EV & verdict · Pokémon Ultra (Spicy) EV & verdict · Why average EV lies