Is Sports Ultra Pack worth buying right now?

Our current verdict is SKIP (score 16/100). Early read: only 14 pulls indexed — this is a lean, not a settled verdict. The numbers can swing hard until the sample reaches 30.

What is the EV of Sports Ultra Pack?

The calibrated EV is $199.66 against a pack price of $250.00, with a typical (median) pull of $207.00 across 14 indexed pulls.

What are the real odds of beating the pack price on Sports Ultra Pack?

21.4% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. These are observed odds reconstructed from real pulls, not the posted odds.

What is the typical pull from Sports Ultra Pack?

The median pull is $207.00 — half of all indexed rips returned less than that. The single best recorded pull is $621.00.

Baseball

Sports Ultra Pack

Sports Ultra Pack is a $250 Courtyard Baseball mystery pack with a calibrated expected value of $199.66, worth $168.91 at its observed 85% buyback — a cash-out ratio of 0.676x (0.799x at sticker FMV), so it currently returns less than its price on the average rip once the buyback haircut is taken. 21.4% of 14 indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Early Rip Advisor lean (small sample): SKIP (16/100).

Ranked #77 of 129 tracked packs by cash-out ratio, #14 of 17 Baseball packs.

Buy on Courtyard ↗Opens courtyard.io — PullValue is independent and earns nothing from purchases.

Cash-out ratio

0.676x

$168.91 back on a $250 pack, at this pack's observed 85% buyback. At sticker FMV it is 0.799x.

SKIP-32.4% ROI

LOW CONFIDENCE· 14 pulls · 6dSIGNAL Weakening · 6 days ago

Calibrated EV: $200
Cash-out EV: $169
Pack price: $250
Typical pull: $207
Hit rate: 21.4%
Lifetime EV: $271
Pulls indexed: 14
Last pull: 6d ago

01 / Rip Advisor

Is Sports Ultra Pack worth it right now?

Early readscore 16/100SKIP

050100

Early read: only 14 pulls indexed — this is a lean, not a settled verdict. The numbers can swing hard until the sample reaches 30.
Cash-out EV is $169 on a $250 pack (-32.4% net after the ~85% buyback) — the average rip loses money.
The typical pull (median) is $207 — most rips return less than the pack price; the EV is carried by rare chase cards.
EV is down 8.4% over 7 days — chase cards may be leaving the pool. Waiting for a restock can be smarter than ripping a drained pool.
Low volatility: steady pack. Fewer duds, but also fewer moonshots.
Calibrated EV (recent pulls weighted) is $200 vs $271 lifetime — the pool has gotten worse recently.
21.4% of pulls meet or beat the pack price, across 14 indexed pulls.

Log this decision:

Verdict is computed transparently from indexed pulls: cash-out ROI, median pull, 7-day trend, hit rate, and sample size. Redemption shipping (typically $16+) is not included — cards worth less than a few times the shipping cost are usually better instant-sold than shipped. Not financial advice.

02 / Pool signals

What's happening in the Sports Ultra Pack pool

Lifecycle stage, health, and chase removals — read from indexed pulls, never guessed.

14 pulls indexed — drift math needs 30+ to mean anything. Early read only.

BUILDING SAMPLE

14 pulls indexed — drift math needs 30+ to mean anything. Early read only.

Pro adds the Pool Health score and chase-removal impact.

Not observable: packs remaining, value remaining, and which chases are still in the pool — Courtyard publishes a pull feed, not inventory. We label those unavailable rather than estimate them. Everything above is computed from indexed pulls and EV snapshots; thin or stale data pulls the score toward neutral. Formula

Chase tracker

Needs 30+ indexed pulls to define a chase tier for this pack — 14 so far.

Signal lifetime

SIGNAL Weakening · 6 days ago

Pull flow has slowed past the usual gap of 6 days, so this read is ageing faster than the pack is producing evidence. At the observed pull rate, half the evidence behind this read is replaced in about 3 months.

Newest pull: 6 days; observed
Pull rate: 0.2/day; observed
Pulls, 7d: 1; observed
Half-life: Pro

Aged, not predicted. Half-life counts how fast new evidence arrives, measured from real pull timestamps — it is not a forecast of where EV is heading. We publish no EV-drift half-life because our snapshot history is too short and its early stretch is seeded placeholder data; a number regressed from that would describe our seed script, not the market. Note the headline EV is decay-weighted, so it reacts to new pulls sooner than this whole-sample horizon implies. Methodology

03 / Contents

What has come out of Sports Ultra Pack

The eras, sets and cards this pack has actually produced. A record of past pulls — Courtyard publishes no inventory, so this is not a statement about what is left.

Only 14 pulls indexed. Below 25 the proportions below move a lot on a single pull — read them as examples of what has appeared, not as a profile of the pack.

By era

Cards seen range from 1933 to 2025.

Current (2020+)50%$263 avg
Vintage (pre-2000)36%$201 avg
Modern (2010-2019)14%$473 avg

Most common sets

Sets these pulls came from.

Topps14%$208 avg
Baseball Immortals7%$196 avg
Bowman Draft Chrome Draft Picks Autographs7%$530 avg
Bowman Npb7%$207 avg
Bowman University Chrome the Big Kahuna7%$208 avg
Bowman's Best Best of 2024 Autographs7%$231 avg
Goudey7%$196 avg
Panini Donruss Downtown!7%$621 avg

Cards seen most often

Named on every readable pull.

Dave Harris7%$196 avg
De'Aaron Fox AU7%$415 avg
Drake London7%$186 avg
Dylan Harper7%$178 avg
Frank Robinson7%$236 avg
Jeremiah Jackson7%$530 avg
Joe DiMaggio7%$196 avg
Lamar Jackson7%$207 avg

Built from the 14 indexed pulls of this pack so far — a record of what has come out, not a promise about what is left.

07 / Big hits

Biggest Sports Ultra Pack pulls

2024 Panini Donruss Downtown! #7 Travis Kelce (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$621PSA 10 GEM MINT

$2018 Bowman Draft Chrome Draft Picks Autographs #CDAJJ Jeremiah Jackson - Gold Refractor (PSA 10 GEM MINT)$

2018 Bowman Draft Chrome Draft Picks Autographs #CDAJJ Jeremiah Jackson - Gold Refractor (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$530PSA 10 GEM MINT

2017 Panini Impeccable #107 De'Aaron Fox AU (BGS 9.5 GEM MINT)

$415BGS 9.5 GEM MINT

1967 Topps #100 Frank Robinson (PSA 8 NM-MT)

$236PSA 8 NM-MT

$2024 Bowman's Best Best of 2024 Autographs #B24TBA Travis Bazzana - Refractor (PSA 10 GEM MINT)$

2024 Bowman's Best Best of 2024 Autographs #B24TBA Travis Bazzana - Refractor (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$231PSA 10 GEM MINT

2023 Bowman University Chrome the Big Kahuna #TBK11 Michael Penix Jr. - Autograph (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$208PSA 10 GEM MINT

2024 Panini Donruss Optic Sunday Kings #28 Lamar Jackson (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$207PSA 10 GEM MINT

$2022 Bowman Npb #2 Munetaka Murakami - Chrome-Refractor (PSA 9 MINT)$

2022 Bowman Npb #2 Munetaka Murakami - Chrome-Refractor (PSA 9 MINT)

$207PSA 9 MINT

08 / EV history

Sports Ultra Pack EV over time

Snapshot per scraper run. The dashed line is break-even — EV above it is +EV.

Calibrated EV currently sits at $199.66, below the $250 pack price, and has moved down 8.4% over the last 7 days.

0.799xEV ratio

09 / Quick answers

Sports Ultra Pack — quick answers

Is Sports Ultra Pack worth buying right now?: Our current verdict is SKIP (score 16/100). Early read: only 14 pulls indexed — this is a lean, not a settled verdict. The numbers can swing hard until the sample reaches 30.
What is the EV of Sports Ultra Pack?: The calibrated EV is $199.66 against a pack price of $250.00, with a typical (median) pull of $207.00 across 14 indexed pulls.
What are the real odds of beating the pack price on Sports Ultra Pack?: 21.4% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. These are observed odds reconstructed from real pulls, not the posted odds.
What is the typical pull from Sports Ultra Pack?: The median pull is $207.00 — half of all indexed rips returned less than that. The single best recorded pull is $621.00.

10 / Pull log

Latest Sports Ultra Pack pulls

Compare Sports Ultra Pack with other Baseball packs

Same math, same methodology — cash-out ratios after each pack's own buyback, so the comparison is apples to apples.

Understand these numbers

Every figure on this page — EV, EV ratio, hit rate, dilution — is defined once and computed the same way for every pack.