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Basketball Platinum Pack vs Sports Ultra Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Sports Ultra Pack is currently the better value: a 0.941x cash-out ratio against Basketball Platinum Pack's 0.916x, across 233 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricBasketball Platinum PackSports Ultra Pack
VerdictCAUTIONCAUTION
Pack price$500$250
Calibrated EV$527.92$277.78
Cash-out ratio0.916x0.941x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)1.056x1.111x
Median pull$434.45$222.00
Hit rate32.7%37.4%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.43x0.47x
Pulls indexed110123

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Basketball Platinum Pack: 1000 points from Aug 9 to Nov 4, starting at 0.80x and ending at 0.92x, up overall (+15.2%), ranging between 0.71x and 1.01x. Sports Ultra Pack: 1000 points from Aug 9 to Nov 4, starting at 1.23x and ending at 0.94x, down overall (-23.6%), ranging between 0.68x and 1.23x.

Basketball Platinum PackSports Ultra Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Basketball Platinum Pack vs Sports Ultra Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Basketball Platinum Pack or Sports Ultra Pack?
Sports Ultra Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.941x vs 0.916x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Basketball Platinum Pack: 32.7% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Sports Ultra Pack: 37.4%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Sports Ultra Pack has the higher volatility (0.47x vs 0.43x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Basketball Platinum Pack EV & verdict · Sports Ultra Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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