Is Basketball Mythic Pack worth buying right now?

Our current verdict is SKIP (score 16/100). Early read: only 18 pulls indexed — this is a lean, not a settled verdict. The numbers can swing hard until the sample reaches 30.

What is the EV of Basketball Mythic Pack?

The calibrated EV is $4,239.67 against a pack price of $5,000.00, with a typical (median) pull of $4,176.40 across 18 indexed pulls.

What are the real odds of beating the pack price on Basketball Mythic Pack?

22.2% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. These are observed odds reconstructed from real pulls, not the posted odds.

What is the typical pull from Basketball Mythic Pack?

The median pull is $4,176.40 — half of all indexed rips returned less than that. The single best recorded pull is $17,500.90.

Basketball

Basketball Mythic Pack

Basketball Mythic Pack is a $5,000 Courtyard Basketball mystery pack with a calibrated expected value of $4,239.67, worth $3,586.76 at its observed 85% buyback — a cash-out ratio of 0.717x (0.848x at sticker FMV), so it currently returns less than its price on the average rip once the buyback haircut is taken. 22.2% of 18 indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Early Rip Advisor lean (small sample): SKIP (16/100).

Ranked #74 of 75 ranked packs by cash-out ratio, #8 of 9 Basketball packs.

This pack is no longer sold on Courtyard — the numbers below are its historical record.

Cash-out ratio

0.717x

$3,586.76 back on a $5,000 pack, at this pack's observed 85% buyback. At sticker FMV it is 0.848x.

95% range $3,025.41–$4,148.11, clear of the $5,000 price.

SKIP-28.3% ROI

INSUFFICIENT DATA · 18 pulls · todaySIGNAL Fresh · 4.3 h ago

Calibrated EV: $4,240
Cash-out EV: $3,587
Pack price: $5,000
Typical pull: $4,176
Hit rate: 22.2%
Lifetime EV: $5,273
Pulls indexed: 18
Last pull: 4h ago

01 / Rip Advisor

Is Basketball Mythic Pack worth it right now?

Early readscore 16/100SKIP

050100

Early read: only 18 pulls indexed — this is a lean, not a settled verdict. The numbers can swing hard until the sample reaches 30.
Cash-out EV is $3,587 on a $5,000 pack (-28.3% net after the ~85% buyback) — the average rip loses money.
Cash-out EV is $3,586.76, and the sample is precise enough to place it below the $5,000.00 price: the 95% range is $3,025.41 to $4,148.11, which does not include the price.
The typical pull (median) is $4,176 — most rips return less than the pack price; the EV is carried by rare chase cards.
Recent pulls are averaging 9.1% below where they were 7 days ago. That is what the last week returned, not a reading of what is left — Courtyard publishes no inventory. A drop this size is consistent with the better cards having been pulled, and also with an unlucky week.
Calibrated EV (recent pulls weighted) is $4,240 vs $5,273 lifetime — the pool has gotten worse recently.
22.2% of pulls meet or beat the pack price, across 18 indexed pulls.

Log this decision:

Verdict is computed transparently from indexed pulls: cash-out ROI, median pull, 7-day trend, hit rate, and sample size. Redemption shipping (typically $16+) is not included — cards worth less than a few times the shipping cost are usually better instant-sold than shipped. Not financial advice.

02 / Pool signals

What's happening in the Basketball Mythic Pack pool

Lifecycle stage, health, and chase removals — read from indexed pulls, never guessed.

18 pulls indexed — drift math needs 30+ to mean anything. Early read only.

BUILDING SAMPLE

18 pulls indexed — drift math needs 30+ to mean anything. Early read only.

Pro adds the Pool Health score and chase-removal impact.

Not observable: packs remaining, value remaining, and which chases are still in the pool — Courtyard publishes a pull feed, not inventory. We label those unavailable rather than estimate them. Everything above is computed from indexed pulls and EV snapshots; thin or stale data pulls the score toward neutral. Formula

Chase tracker

Needs 30+ indexed pulls to define a chase tier for this pack — 18 so far.

Signal lifetime

SIGNAL Fresh · 4.3 h ago

Recomputed against pulls indexed in the last few hours.

Newest pull: 4.3 h; observed
Pull rate: too soon; observed
Pulls, 7d: 1; observed
Half-life: Pro

Aged, not predicted. Half-life counts how fast new evidence arrives, measured from real pull timestamps — it is not a forecast of where EV is heading. We publish no EV-drift half-life because our snapshot history is still too short for a regression to mean anything. The seeded placeholder points this note used to warn about have been flagged in the database and excluded from every chart, trend and score, so what you see plotted is observed data. Note the headline EV is decay-weighted, so it reacts to new pulls sooner than this whole-sample horizon implies. Methodology

03 / Contents

What has come out of Basketball Mythic Pack

The eras, sets and cards this pack has actually produced. A record of past pulls — Courtyard publishes no inventory, so this is not a statement about what is left.

Only 18 pulls indexed. Below 25 the proportions below move a lot on a single pull — read them as examples of what has appeared, not as a profile of the pack.

By era

Cards seen range from 1989 to 2025.

Current (2020+)50%$4,964 avg
Retro (2000-2009)22%$7,474 avg
Vintage (pre-2000)22%$4,092 avg
Modern (2010-2019)6%$3,978 avg

Most common sets

Sets these pulls came from.

Panini Prizm22%$4,502 avg
Topps Chrome11%$4,615 avg
Fleer6%$4,014 avg
Fleer Tradition6%$4,106 avg
Panini Contenders Optic6%$8,083 avg
Panini Donruss Optic6%$4,695 avg
Panini Immaculate Collection6%$3,978 avg
Panini National Treasures6%$4,049 avg

Cards seen most often

Named on every readable pull.

Michael Jordan17%$8,574 avg
Anthony Edwards11%$3,632 avg
Jalen Williams11%$6,066 avg
Ausar Thompson6%$6,600 avg
Cade Cunningham6%$4,695 avg
Carmelo Anthony/Dwyane Wade/LeBron James6%$4,106 avg
Jalen Johnson6%$4,146 avg
Jerry Stackhouse/Michael Jordan6%$3,539 avg

Built from the 18 indexed pulls of this pack so far — a record of what has come out, not a promise about what is left.

07 / Big hits

Biggest Basketball Mythic Pack pulls

2003 Ultimate Collection Ultimate Signatures #MJ-A Michael Jordan (BGS 8.5 NM-MT+)

$17,501BGS 8.5 NM-MT+

2022 Panini Contenders Optic #112 Jalen Williams - Autograph-Gold (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$8,083PSA 10 GEM MINT

2024 Panini Prizm #147 Ausar Thompson - Nebula Choice 1/1 (BGS 9 MINT)

$6,600BGS 9 MINT

$2025 Topps Chrome Autograph Issue Rookies #TAUR2-KK Kon Knueppel - Gold Refractor (PSA 10 GEM MINT)$

2025 Topps Chrome Autograph Issue Rookies #TAUR2-KK Kon Knueppel - Gold Refractor (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$5,368PSA 10 GEM MINT

2021 Panini Donruss Optic #161 Cade Cunningham - Dragon Choice (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$4,695PSA 10 GEM MINT

2003 Topps Chrome #111 LeBron James (PSA 9 MINT)

$4,622PSA 9 MINT

1996 Topps Chrome #138 Kobe Bryant (PSA 9 MINT)

$4,607PSA 9 MINT

2024 Panini Prizm Black Manga #12 Tyrese Haliburton (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$4,476PSA 10 GEM MINT

08 / EV history

Basketball Mythic Pack EV over time

Snapshot per scraper run. The dashed line is break-even — EV above it is +EV.

Calibrated EV currently sits at $4,239.67, below the $5,000 pack price, and has moved down 9.1% over the last 7 days.

0.717xCash-out ratio

09 / Quick answers

Basketball Mythic Pack — quick answers

Is Basketball Mythic Pack worth buying right now?: Our current verdict is SKIP (score 16/100). Early read: only 18 pulls indexed — this is a lean, not a settled verdict. The numbers can swing hard until the sample reaches 30.
What is the EV of Basketball Mythic Pack?: The calibrated EV is $4,239.67 against a pack price of $5,000.00, with a typical (median) pull of $4,176.40 across 18 indexed pulls.
What are the real odds of beating the pack price on Basketball Mythic Pack?: 22.2% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. These are observed odds reconstructed from real pulls, not the posted odds.
What is the typical pull from Basketball Mythic Pack?: The median pull is $4,176.40 — half of all indexed rips returned less than that. The single best recorded pull is $17,500.90.

10 / Pull log