Is Sports VIP (Spicy) worth buying right now?

Our current verdict is NO DATA (score 0/100). No pack price on record, so no net or ROI figure can be computed.

What is the EV of Sports VIP (Spicy)?

The calibrated EV is $1,508.41 against a pack price of not yet set, with a typical (median) pull of $1,059.40 across 116 indexed pulls.

What are the real odds of beating the pack price on Sports VIP (Spicy)?

We cannot say yet. Sports VIP (Spicy) has no pack price on record, and the odds of beating a price are undefined until there is one to beat. The 116 indexed pulls are still shown below as a record of what has come out.

What is the typical pull from Sports VIP (Spicy)?

The median pull is $1,059.40 — half of all indexed rips returned less than that. The single best recorded pull is $8,546.00.

Basketball

Sports VIP (Spicy)

Sports VIP (Spicy) is a Courtyard Basketball mystery pack with a calibrated expected value of $1,508.41 and a typical (median) pull of $1,059.40 across 116 indexed pulls. Its pack price is not yet confirmed, so the EV ratio, hit rate, and Rip Advisor verdict are pending.

Calibrated EV

$1,508

— ROI

EMERGING · 116 pulls (15 effective) · todaySIGNAL Stale · 4 days ago

Calibrated EV: $1,508
Cash-out EV: $1,335
Pack price: Unknown
Typical pull: $1,059
Hit rate: —
Lifetime EV: $1,418
Pulls indexed: 116
Last pull: 45m ago

01 / Rip Advisor

Is Sports VIP (Spicy) worth it right now?

score 0/100NO DATA

050100

No pack price on record, so no net or ROI figure can be computed.

Log this decision:

Verdict is computed transparently from indexed pulls: cash-out ROI, median pull, 7-day trend, hit rate, and sample size. Redemption shipping (typically $16+) is not included — cards worth less than a few times the shipping cost are usually better instant-sold than shipped. Not financial advice.

02 / Pool signals

What's happening in the Sports VIP (Spicy) pool

Lifecycle stage, health, and chase removals — read from indexed pulls, never guessed.

No price set — pool economics can’t be computed.

NO DATA

No price set — pool economics can’t be computed.

Pro adds the Pool Health score and chase-removal impact.

Not observable: packs remaining, value remaining, and which chases are still in the pool — Courtyard publishes a pull feed, not inventory. We label those unavailable rather than estimate them. Everything above is computed from indexed pulls and EV snapshots; thin or stale data pulls the score toward neutral. Formula

Chase tracker

No pack price set, so a chase tier cannot be anchored.

Signal lifetime

SIGNAL Stale · 4 days ago

No new pulls for well past this pack's usual gap (typically 23 h). It may be paused, sold out, or no longer indexed. At the observed pull rate, half the evidence behind this read is replaced in about 4 months.

Newest pull: 4 days; observed
Pull rate: 1.0/day; observed
Pulls, 7d: 2; observed
Half-life: Pro

Aged, not predicted. Half-life counts how fast new evidence arrives, measured from real pull timestamps — it is not a forecast of where EV is heading. We publish no EV-drift half-life because our snapshot history is still too short for a regression to mean anything. The seeded placeholder points this note used to warn about have been flagged in the database and excluded from every chart, trend and score, so what you see plotted is observed data. Note the headline EV is decay-weighted, so it reacts to new pulls sooner than this whole-sample horizon implies. Methodology

03 / Contents

What has come out of Sports VIP (Spicy)

The eras, sets and cards this pack has actually produced. A record of past pulls — Courtyard publishes no inventory, so this is not a statement about what is left.

By era

Cards seen range from 1933 to 2025.

Current (2020+)50%$1,281 avg
Vintage (pre-2000)26%$1,625 avg
Modern (2010-2019)19%$1,329 avg
Retro (2000-2009)5%$2,087 avg

Most common sets

Sets these pulls came from.

Topps12%$2,153 avg
Upper Deck6%$1,217 avg
Panini Prizm5%$1,912 avg
Panini Donruss Optic3%$1,077 avg
Panini Select3%$980 avg
Topps Chrome3%$2,156 avg
Ultra3%$954 avg
Bowman Chrome Prospect Autographs2%$4,856 avg

Cards seen most often

Named on every readable pull.

Michael Jordan6%$804 avg
Shohei Ohtani4%$1,317 avg
Kobe Bryant3%$1,755 avg
Joe Burrow3%$718 avg
Lamine Yamal3%$532 avg
Willie Mays3%$1,210 avg
Alexander Ovechkin2%$1,223 avg
Ashton Jeanty2%$935 avg

Built from the 115 indexed pulls of this pack so far — a record of what has come out, not a promise about what is left.

04 / Floor safety

Sports VIP (Spicy) floor safety & buyback reality

The two ways average EV lies to you — how top-heavy the pack is, and what FMV actually converts to in cash — then which exit pays most.

In Sports VIP (Spicy), the top 2% of pulls account for 14% of all pulled value — low dilution. Value is spread fairly evenly across the pool, so the average is close to what a typical rip returns. The observed instant-offer ratio is 90% of FMV, which is the cash number every verdict on this page already uses.

Floor safety

low dilution

14% of everything this pack has paid out came from just the top 2% of pulls. Value is spread broadly across pulls, so the average sits closer to the typical rip here than it does on a top-heavy pack. It still sits above the median — check both.

Buyback reality

88.5% of FMV observed

Across 112 indexed pulls that carry a recorded bid, a $100 FMV pull cashes out around $89 if you instant-sell — better than the platform's 84.6%. This is the figure every verdict on the site multiplies by.

Measured per card rather than per dollar the ratio is 89.8% — higher because cheaper cards draw proportionally better offers. That one describes a single card; the 88.5% above describes a basket, which is what an expected value needs.

Holding, listing, or physically redeeming can beat the instant offer — but redemption shipping (typically $16+) eats small wins.

Net exit value

111 paired pulls · 97% bid coverage · confidence 100%

Instant-selling the average (mean) pull here returns $1,266.44 — $164.18 below sticker FMV (11.5% haircut). That figure is the average of bids we actually recorded, not the platform rate applied blind.

Pro compares all three exits side by side, with the redemption breakeven and the value-by-value haircut curve for this pack.

Bids are recorded, resale is not. Instant-buyback figures are real offers captured at index time and can move. Redemption shipping starts near $16 in the US, is higher internationally, and is charged per shipment — batching pulls lowers it. We publish no resale estimate, liquidity score, or time-to-sell, because no such data is available to us. How buyback works

05 / Observed odds

Sports VIP (Spicy) odds — observed, not posted

Reconstructed from real pulls, so it shows what has actually been coming out — posted odds can't do that. It is a record of pulls, not a count of what is left.

Under $53810.4%· stable
$538 – $1,07539.1%· stable
$1,075 – $2,150 · beats the pack33.9%· stable
$2,150 – $5,376 · big hit13.9%· stable
$5,376+ · chase2.6%· stable

Observed across 115 indexed pulls — what actually came out of this pack, independent of the posted odds. The 48h column shows tier drift: a falling green tier means fewer of the good cards have come out lately — which may mean they are running out, or may just be a quiet 48 hours.

07 / Big hits

Biggest Sports VIP (Spicy) pulls

$2024 Bowman Chrome Prospect Autographs #CPALD Leo de Vries - Gold Refractor (PSA 10 GEM MINT)$

2024 Bowman Chrome Prospect Autographs #CPALD Leo de Vries - Gold Refractor (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$8,546PSA 10 GEM MINT

1956 Topps #33 Roberto Clemente - Gray Back (SGC 8 NM-MT)

$8,536SGC 8 NM-MT

2024 Panini Prizm #243 Bronny James Jr. - Gold Prizm (BGS 7.5 NM+)

$6,120BGS 7.5 NM+

2024 Panini Donruss Optic Downtown! #25 Michael Vick - Black Pandora (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$3,910PSA 10 GEM MINT

1933 Goudey #158 Moe Berg (SGC 3 VG)

$3,544SGC 3 VG

2003 Topps Chrome #111 LeBron James (PSA 8 NM-MT)

$3,192PSA 8 NM-MT

1968 Topps #177 Mets Rookies - J.Koosman/N.Ryan (PSA 6 EX-MT)

$3,083PSA 6 EX-MT

2023 Panini Obsidian Unbreakable Memorabilia #UMGDI Gradey Dick - Vibrant Mojo 1/1 (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$2,997PSA 10 GEM MINT

08 / EV history

Sports VIP (Spicy) EV over time

Snapshot per scraper run. The dashed line is break-even — EV above it is +EV.

Calibrated EV currently sits at $1,508.41, and has moved down 14.1% over the last 7 days.

$1622.85EV

09 / Quick answers

Sports VIP (Spicy) — quick answers

Is Sports VIP (Spicy) worth buying right now?: Our current verdict is NO DATA (score 0/100). No pack price on record, so no net or ROI figure can be computed.
What is the EV of Sports VIP (Spicy)?: The calibrated EV is $1,508.41 against a pack price of not yet set, with a typical (median) pull of $1,059.40 across 116 indexed pulls.
What are the real odds of beating the pack price on Sports VIP (Spicy)?: We cannot say yet. Sports VIP (Spicy) has no pack price on record, and the odds of beating a price are undefined until there is one to beat. The 116 indexed pulls are still shown below as a record of what has come out.
What is the typical pull from Sports VIP (Spicy)?: The median pull is $1,059.40 — half of all indexed rips returned less than that. The single best recorded pull is $8,546.00.

10 / Pull log