Is Sports VIP (Spicy) worth buying right now?

Our current verdict is NO DATA (score 0/100). No pack price on record, so no net or ROI figure can be computed.

What is the EV of Sports VIP (Spicy)?

The calibrated EV is $1,424.26 against a pack price of not yet set, with a typical (median) pull of $1,141.60 across 41 indexed pulls.

What are the real odds of beating the pack price on Sports VIP (Spicy)?

We cannot say yet. Sports VIP (Spicy) has no pack price on record, and the odds of beating a price are undefined until there is one to beat. The 41 indexed pulls are still shown below as a record of what has come out.

What is the typical pull from Sports VIP (Spicy)?

The median pull is $1,141.60 — half of all indexed rips returned less than that. The single best recorded pull is $8,546.00.

Baseball

Sports VIP (Spicy)

Sports VIP (Spicy) is a Courtyard Baseball mystery pack with a calibrated expected value of $1,424.26 and a typical (median) pull of $1,141.60 across 41 indexed pulls. Its pack price is not yet confirmed, so the EV ratio, hit rate, and Rip Advisor verdict are pending.

Calibrated EV

$1,424

— ROI

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE · 41 pulls (31 effective) · todaySIGNAL Weakening · 21 h ago

Calibrated EV: $1,424
Cash-out EV: $1,263
Pack price: Unknown
Typical pull: $1,142
Hit rate: —
Lifetime EV: $1,439
Pulls indexed: 41
Last pull: 20h ago

01 / Rip Advisor

Is Sports VIP (Spicy) worth it right now?

score 0/100NO DATA

050100

No pack price on record, so no net or ROI figure can be computed.

Log this decision:

Verdict is computed transparently from indexed pulls: cash-out ROI, median pull, 7-day trend, hit rate, and sample size. Redemption shipping (typically $16+) is not included — cards worth less than a few times the shipping cost are usually better instant-sold than shipped. Not financial advice.

02 / Pool signals

What's happening in the Sports VIP (Spicy) pool

Lifecycle stage, health, and chase removals — read from indexed pulls, never guessed.

No price set — pool economics can’t be computed.

NO DATA

No price set — pool economics can’t be computed.

Pro adds the Pool Health score and chase-removal impact.

Not observable: packs remaining, value remaining, and which chases are still in the pool — Courtyard publishes a pull feed, not inventory. We label those unavailable rather than estimate them. Everything above is computed from indexed pulls and EV snapshots; thin or stale data pulls the score toward neutral. Formula

Chase tracker

No pack price set, so a chase tier cannot be anchored.

Signal lifetime

SIGNAL Weakening · 21 h ago

Pull flow has slowed past the usual gap of 8.1 h, so this read is ageing faster than the pack is producing evidence. At the observed pull rate, half the evidence behind this read is replaced in about 14 days.

Newest pull: 21 h; observed
Pull rate: 3.0/day; observed
Pulls, 7d: 30; observed
Half-life: Pro

Aged, not predicted. Half-life counts how fast new evidence arrives, measured from real pull timestamps — it is not a forecast of where EV is heading. We publish no EV-drift half-life because our snapshot history is still too short for a regression to mean anything. The seeded placeholder points this note used to warn about have been flagged in the database and excluded from every chart, trend and score, so what you see plotted is observed data. Note the headline EV is decay-weighted, so it reacts to new pulls sooner than this whole-sample horizon implies. Methodology

03 / Contents

What has come out of Sports VIP (Spicy)

The eras, sets and cards this pack has actually produced. A record of past pulls — Courtyard publishes no inventory, so this is not a statement about what is left.

By era

Cards seen range from 1941 to 2025.

Current (2020+)46%$1,597 avg
Vintage (pre-2000)32%$1,185 avg
Modern (2010-2019)22%$1,470 avg

Most common sets

Sets these pulls came from.

Topps15%$1,469 avg
Panini Prizm10%$2,547 avg
Calbee Exciting Rookie5%$1,513 avg
Panini Select5%$1,178 avg
Ultra5%$1,093 avg
Upper Deck5%$690 avg
Bowman Chrome Prospect Autographs2%$8,546 avg
Bowman Chrome Rookie Autographs2%$1,044 avg

Cards seen most often

Named on every readable pull.

Michael Jordan12%$759 avg
Shohei Ohtani7%$1,653 avg
Kylian Mbappe5%$1,159 avg
Ashton Jeanty2%$1,359 avg
Bob Clemente2%$579 avg
Brian Dawkins2%$567 avg
Bronny James Jr.2%$6,120 avg
Bryson Stott2%$1,152 avg

Built from the 41 indexed pulls of this pack so far — a record of what has come out, not a promise about what is left.

04 / Floor safety

Sports VIP (Spicy) floor safety & buyback reality

The two ways average EV lies to you — how top-heavy the pack is, and what FMV actually converts to in cash — then which exit pays most.

In Sports VIP (Spicy), the top 2% of pulls account for 14% of all pulled value — low dilution. Value is spread fairly evenly across the pool, so the average is close to what a typical rip returns. The observed instant-offer ratio is 91% of FMV, which is the cash number every verdict on this page already uses.

Floor safety

low dilution

14% of everything this pack has paid out came from just the top 2% of pulls. Value is spread broadly across pulls, so the average sits closer to the typical rip here than it does on a top-heavy pack. It still sits above the median — check both.

Buyback reality

88.7% of FMV observed

Across 39 indexed pulls that carry a recorded bid, a $100 FMV pull cashes out around $89 if you instant-sell — better than the platform's 84.6%. This is the figure every verdict on the site multiplies by.

Measured per card rather than per dollar the ratio is 90.9% — higher because cheaper cards draw proportionally better offers. That one describes a single card; the 88.7% above describes a basket, which is what an expected value needs.

Holding, listing, or physically redeeming can beat the instant offer — but redemption shipping (typically $16+) eats small wins.

Net exit value

39 paired pulls · 95% bid coverage · confidence 80%

Instant-selling the average (mean) pull here returns $1,315.08 — $167.43 below sticker FMV (11.3% haircut). That figure is the average of bids we actually recorded, not the platform rate applied blind.

Pro compares all three exits side by side, with the redemption breakeven and the value-by-value haircut curve for this pack.

Bids are recorded, resale is not. Instant-buyback figures are real offers captured at index time and can move. Redemption shipping starts near $16 in the US, is higher internationally, and is charged per shipment — batching pulls lowers it. We publish no resale estimate, liquidity score, or time-to-sell, because no such data is available to us. How buyback works

05 / Observed odds

Sports VIP (Spicy) odds — observed, not posted

Reconstructed from real pulls, so it shows what has actually been coming out — posted odds can't do that. It is a record of pulls, not a count of what is left.

Under $57117.1%· stable
$571 – $1,14231.7%· stable
$1,142 – $2,283 · beats the pack41.5%· stable
$2,283 – $5,708 · big hit4.9%· stable
$5,708+ · chase4.9%· stable

Observed across 41 indexed pulls — what actually came out of this pack, independent of the posted odds. The 48h column shows tier drift: a falling green tier means fewer of the good cards have come out lately — which may mean they are running out, or may just be a quiet 48 hours.

07 / Big hits

Biggest Sports VIP (Spicy) pulls

$2024 Bowman Chrome Prospect Autographs #CPALD Leo de Vries - Gold Refractor (PSA 10 GEM MINT)$

2024 Bowman Chrome Prospect Autographs #CPALD Leo de Vries - Gold Refractor (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$8,546PSA 10 GEM MINT

2024 Panini Prizm #243 Bronny James Jr. - Gold Prizm (BGS 7.5 NM+)

$6,120BGS 7.5 NM+

1996 Topps #138 Kobe Bryant (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$2,884PSA 10 GEM MINT

2018 Panini Contenders #142 Trae Young - Autograph-the Finals (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$2,386PSA 10 GEM MINT

1962 Topps #200 Mickey Mantle (PSA 6 EX-MT)

$2,248PSA 6 EX-MT

2025 Topps X Bob Ross the Joy of Baseball #41 Shohei Ohtani - Indian Yellow (PSA 9 MINT)

$1,932PSA 9 MINT

2017 Panini Select #224 Kylian Mbappe - Checkerboard (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$1,756PSA 10 GEM MINT

2018 Panini Status New Breed Autographs #NBSGA Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$1,755PSA 10 GEM MINT

08 / EV history

Sports VIP (Spicy) EV over time

Snapshot per scraper run. The dashed line is break-even — EV above it is +EV.

Calibrated EV currently sits at $1,424.26, and has moved up 23.8% over the last 7 days.

$1424.26EV

09 / Quick answers

Sports VIP (Spicy) — quick answers

Is Sports VIP (Spicy) worth buying right now?: Our current verdict is NO DATA (score 0/100). No pack price on record, so no net or ROI figure can be computed.
What is the EV of Sports VIP (Spicy)?: The calibrated EV is $1,424.26 against a pack price of not yet set, with a typical (median) pull of $1,141.60 across 41 indexed pulls.
What are the real odds of beating the pack price on Sports VIP (Spicy)?: We cannot say yet. Sports VIP (Spicy) has no pack price on record, and the odds of beating a price are undefined until there is one to beat. The 41 indexed pulls are still shown below as a record of what has come out.
What is the typical pull from Sports VIP (Spicy)?: The median pull is $1,141.60 — half of all indexed rips returned less than that. The single best recorded pull is $8,546.00.

10 / Pull log