Basketball Ultra Pack vs Sports Ultra Pack: which pack is the better rip?
On live data, Sports Ultra Pack is currently the better value: a 0.929x cash-out ratio against Basketball Ultra Pack's 0.804x, across 428 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.
| Metric | Basketball Ultra Pack | Sports Ultra Pack |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | SKIP | CAUTION |
| Pack price | $250 | $250 |
| Calibrated EV | $237.09 | $274.38 |
| Cash-out ratio | 0.804x | 0.929x |
| EV ratio (at sticker FMV) | 0.948x | 1.098x |
| Median pull | $214.75 | $221.95 |
| Hit rate | 26.3% | 37.1% |
| Volatility (stddev/EV) | 0.34x | 0.47x |
| Pulls indexed | 304 | 124 |
02 / EV history
EV ratio over time, overlaid
Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Basketball Ultra Pack: 1000 points from Aug 9 to Nov 4, starting at 0.71x and ending at 0.80x, up overall (+13.1%), ranging between 0.71x and 1.09x. Sports Ultra Pack: 1000 points from Aug 9 to Nov 4, starting at 1.23x and ending at 0.93x, down overall (-24.6%), ranging between 0.68x and 1.23x.
Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.
03 / Quick answers
Basketball Ultra Pack vs Sports Ultra Pack — quick answers
- Which is better value right now: Basketball Ultra Pack or Sports Ultra Pack?
- Sports Ultra Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.929x vs 0.804x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
- Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
- Basketball Ultra Pack: 26.3% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Sports Ultra Pack: 37.1%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
- Which pack is riskier?
- Sports Ultra Pack has the higher volatility (0.47x vs 0.34x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.
Full pages: Basketball Ultra Pack EV & verdict · Sports Ultra Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies