Basketball Ultra Pack vs Sports Ultra Pack: which pack is the better rip?
On live data, Sports Ultra Pack is currently the better value: a 0.883x cash-out ratio against Basketball Ultra Pack's 0.741x, across 125 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.
| Metric | Basketball Ultra Pack | Sports Ultra Pack |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | SKIP | SKIP |
| Pack price | $250 | $250 |
| Calibrated EV | $218.22 | $261.03 |
| Cash-out ratio | 0.741x | 0.883x |
| EV ratio (at sticker FMV) | 0.873x | 1.044x |
| Median pull | $206.00 | $219.50 |
| Hit rate | 16.7% | 37.1% |
| Volatility (stddev/EV) | 0.36x | 0.41x |
| Pulls indexed | 90 | 35 |
02 / EV history
EV ratio over time, overlaid
Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Basketball Ultra Pack: 573 points from Jul 28 to Sep 18, starting at 0.70x and ending at 0.74x, up overall (+5.6%), ranging between 0.66x and 1.09x. Sports Ultra Pack: 585 points from Jul 12 to Sep 18, starting at 0.66x and ending at 0.88x, up overall (+33.4%), ranging between 0.66x and 1.69x.
Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.
03 / Quick answers
Basketball Ultra Pack vs Sports Ultra Pack — quick answers
- Which is better value right now: Basketball Ultra Pack or Sports Ultra Pack?
- Sports Ultra Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.883x vs 0.741x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
- Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
- Basketball Ultra Pack: 16.7% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Sports Ultra Pack: 37.1%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
- Which pack is riskier?
- Sports Ultra Pack has the higher volatility (0.41x vs 0.36x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.
Full pages: Basketball Ultra Pack EV & verdict · Sports Ultra Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies