Basketball Diamond Pack vs Sports Ultra Pack: which pack is the better rip?
On live data, Basketball Diamond Pack is currently the better value: a 1.109x cash-out ratio against Sports Ultra Pack's 0.947x, across 175 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.
| Metric | Basketball Diamond Pack | Sports Ultra Pack |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | CAUTION | CAUTION |
| Pack price | $1000 | $250 |
| Calibrated EV | $1310.99 | $279.48 |
| Cash-out ratio | 1.109x | 0.947x |
| EV ratio (at sticker FMV) | 1.311x | 1.118x |
| Median pull | $901.85 | $222.00 |
| Hit rate | 40.0% | 37.6% |
| Volatility (stddev/EV) | 0.61x | 0.47x |
| Pulls indexed | 50 | 125 |
02 / EV history
EV ratio over time, overlaid
Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Basketball Diamond Pack: 991 points from Aug 11 to Nov 4, starting at 0.67x and ending at 1.11x, up overall (+65.0%), ranging between 0.67x and 1.34x. Sports Ultra Pack: 1000 points from Aug 9 to Nov 4, starting at 1.23x and ending at 0.95x, down overall (-23.1%), ranging between 0.68x and 1.23x.
Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.
03 / Quick answers
Basketball Diamond Pack vs Sports Ultra Pack — quick answers
- Which is better value right now: Basketball Diamond Pack or Sports Ultra Pack?
- Basketball Diamond Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (1.109x vs 0.947x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
- Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
- Basketball Diamond Pack: 40.0% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Sports Ultra Pack: 37.6%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
- Which pack is riskier?
- Basketball Diamond Pack has the higher volatility (0.61x vs 0.47x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.
Full pages: Basketball Diamond Pack EV & verdict · Sports Ultra Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies