Basketball Diamond Pack vs Sports Ultra Pack: which pack is the better rip?
On live data, Sports Ultra Pack is currently the better value: a 0.871x cash-out ratio against Basketball Diamond Pack's 0.808x, across 45 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.
| Metric | Basketball Diamond Pack | Sports Ultra Pack |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | SKIP | SKIP |
| Pack price | $1000 | $250 |
| Calibrated EV | $954.91 | $257.38 |
| Cash-out ratio | 0.808x | 0.871x |
| EV ratio (at sticker FMV) | 0.955x | 1.030x |
| Median pull | $900.00 | $218.75 |
| Hit rate | 11.1% | 36.1% |
| Volatility (stddev/EV) | 0.24x | 0.41x |
| Pulls indexed | 9 | 36 |
02 / EV history
EV ratio over time, overlaid
Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Basketball Diamond Pack: 405 points from Aug 11 to Sep 19, starting at 0.67x and ending at 0.81x, up overall (+20.2%), ranging between 0.67x and 0.97x. Sports Ultra Pack: 589 points from Jul 12 to Sep 19, starting at 0.66x and ending at 0.87x, up overall (+31.6%), ranging between 0.66x and 1.69x.
Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.
03 / Quick answers
Basketball Diamond Pack vs Sports Ultra Pack — quick answers
- Which is better value right now: Basketball Diamond Pack or Sports Ultra Pack?
- Sports Ultra Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.871x vs 0.808x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
- Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
- Basketball Diamond Pack: 11.1% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Sports Ultra Pack: 36.1%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
- Which pack is riskier?
- Sports Ultra Pack has the higher volatility (0.41x vs 0.24x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.
Full pages: Basketball Diamond Pack EV & verdict · Sports Ultra Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies