Is Wildcard Master Pack worth buying right now?

Our current verdict is SKIP (score 37/100). Cash-out EV is $79 on a $100 pack (-20.7% net after the ~85% buyback) — the average rip loses money.

What is the EV of Wildcard Master Pack?

The calibrated EV is $93.72 against a pack price of $100.00, with a typical (median) pull of $85.60 across 30 indexed pulls.

What are the real odds of beating the pack price on Wildcard Master Pack?

20.0% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price, and 0.0% returned at least double the price. These are observed odds reconstructed from real pulls, not the posted odds.

What is the typical pull from Wildcard Master Pack?

The median pull is $85.60 — half of all indexed rips returned less than that. The single best recorded pull is $178.00.

Pokémon

Wildcard Master Pack

Wildcard Master Pack is a $100 Courtyard Pokémon mystery pack with a calibrated expected value of $93.72, worth $79.29 at its observed 85% buyback — a cash-out ratio of 0.793x (0.937x at sticker FMV), so it currently returns less than its price on the average rip once the buyback haircut is taken. 20.0% of 30 indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Rip Advisor verdict: SKIP (37/100).

Ranked #48 of 129 tracked packs by cash-out ratio, #16 of 41 Pokémon packs.

Buy on Courtyard ↗Opens courtyard.io — PullValue is independent and earns nothing from purchases.

Cash-out ratio

0.793x

$79.29 back on a $100 pack, at this pack's observed 85% buyback. At sticker FMV it is 0.937x.

SKIP-20.7% ROI

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE· 30 pulls · 4dSIGNAL Weakening · 4 days ago

Calibrated EV: $94
Cash-out EV: $79
Pack price: $100
Typical pull: $86
Hit rate: 20.0%
Lifetime EV: $96
Pulls indexed: 30
Last pull: 4d ago

01 / Rip Advisor

Is Wildcard Master Pack worth it right now?

score 37/100SKIP

050100

Cash-out EV is $79 on a $100 pack (-20.7% net after the ~85% buyback) — the average rip loses money.
The typical pull (median) is $86 — most rips return less than the pack price; the EV is carried by rare chase cards.
EV is up 8.6% over 7 days — the pool looks freshly stocked.
20.0% of pulls meet or beat the pack price, across 30 indexed pulls.

Downside · bottom-quartile rip

−$31

1 in 4 rips returns ≤ $69 cash — covering 69% of the price.

Upside · top-decile rip

+$20

1 in 10 rips returns ≥ $120 cash. Both figures use the observed buyback ratio.

Log this decision:

Verdict is computed transparently from indexed pulls: cash-out ROI, median pull, 7-day trend, hit rate, and sample size. Redemption shipping (typically $16+) is not included — cards worth less than a few times the shipping cost are usually better instant-sold than shipped. Not financial advice.

02 / Pool signals

What's happening in the Wildcard Master Pack pool

Lifecycle stage, health, and chase removals — read from indexed pulls, never guessed.

Recent pulls are running above the lifetime average (EV +9% over 7 days) — the pool is trending up without a restock-sized jump.

IMPROVING

Recent pulls are running above the lifetime average (EV +9% over 7 days) — the pool is trending up without a restock-sized jump.

Pro adds the Pool Health score and chase-removal impact.

Not observable: packs remaining, value remaining, and which chases are still in the pool — Courtyard publishes a pull feed, not inventory. We label those unavailable rather than estimate them. Everything above is computed from indexed pulls and EV snapshots; thin or stale data pulls the score toward neutral. Formula

Chase tracker

chase tier ≥ $500 · confidence 74%

No chase-tier pulls (≥ $500) observed in the last 30 days.

Removals are facts; what's left is not. Each row is a unique graded card observed leaving this pack, so it is no longer in the pool — though a card can return after a buyback, which is why re-listings are flagged. We show no “chance it remains”: Courtyard publishes pulls, not inventory, so that number would be guesswork. Formula

Signal lifetime

SIGNAL Weakening · 4 days ago

Pull flow has slowed past the usual gap of 36 h, so this read is ageing faster than the pack is producing evidence. At the observed pull rate, half the evidence behind this read is replaced in about 45 days.

Newest pull: 4 days; observed
Pull rate: 0.7/day; observed
Pulls, 7d: 5; observed
Half-life: Pro

Aged, not predicted. Half-life counts how fast new evidence arrives, measured from real pull timestamps — it is not a forecast of where EV is heading. We publish no EV-drift half-life because our snapshot history is too short and its early stretch is seeded placeholder data; a number regressed from that would describe our seed script, not the market. Note the headline EV is decay-weighted, so it reacts to new pulls sooner than this whole-sample horizon implies. Methodology

03 / Contents

What has come out of Wildcard Master Pack

The eras, sets and cards this pack has actually produced. A record of past pulls — Courtyard publishes no inventory, so this is not a statement about what is left.

By era

Cards seen range from 1958 to 2026.

Current (2020+)80%$91 avg
Vintage (pre-2000)10%$101 avg
Modern (2010-2019)7%$117 avg
Year not stated3%$160 avg

Most common sets

Sets these pulls came from.

Topps10%$98 avg
Pokémon Sv0m-EX Starter Set Marnie's Morpeko & Grimmsnarl EX7%$83 avg
Pokémon Swsh Black Star Promo7%$82 avg
Caracalla, AD 198-217 PHOENICIA, SIDON BI Tetradrachm3%$160 avg
Crown Zenith3%$80 avg
Insert Card Van Gogh Museum, Amsterdam3%$89 avg
One Piece English Version 2nd Anniversary Set3%$178 avg
One Piece PRB01-Premium Booster -One Piece Card the Best3%$77 avg

Cards seen most often

Named on 93% of readable pulls. The rest do not print a card number, and without one the card cannot be told apart from the set name.

Gengar7%$117 avg
Marnie's Morpeko7%$83 avg
Pikachu7%$81 avg
Articuno4%$73 avg
Ceruledge EX4%$71 avg
Charizard Vmax4%$83 avg
Erling Haaland4%$113 avg
Flareon ex4%$97 avg

What comes out

Not every pull is a graded single.

Graded cards97%$94 avg
Graded coins3%$160 avg

Built from the 30 indexed pulls of this pack so far — a record of what has come out, not a promise about what is left.

04 / Floor safety

Wildcard Master Pack floor safety & buyback reality

The two ways average EV lies to you — how top-heavy the pack is, and what FMV actually converts to in cash — then which exit pays most.

In Wildcard Master Pack, the top 2% of pulls account for 6% of all pulled value — low dilution. Value is spread fairly evenly across the pool, so the average is close to what a typical rip returns. The observed instant-offer ratio is 85% of FMV, which is the cash number every verdict on this page already uses.

Floor safety

low dilution

6% of everything this pack has paid out came from just the top 2% of pulls. Value is spread broadly across pulls — the average EV is a fair picture of a typical rip.

Buyback reality

84.6% of FMV observed

Across offers we've indexed, a $100 FMV pull cashes out around $85 if you instant-sell — below the advertised ~90%, so FMV is not your exit price. Every number in our verdicts already uses this haircut.

Holding, listing, or physically redeeming can beat the instant offer — but redemption shipping (typically $16+) eats small wins.

Net exit value

30 paired pulls · 100% bid coverage · confidence 74%

Instant-selling a typical pull here returns $81.20 — $14.78 below sticker FMV (15.4% haircut). That figure is the average of bids we actually recorded, not an assumed 90%.

Pro compares all three exits side by side, with the redemption breakeven and the value-by-value haircut curve for this pack.

Bids are recorded, resale is not. Instant-buyback figures are real offers captured at index time and can move. Redemption shipping starts near $16 in the US, is higher internationally, and is charged per shipment — batching pulls lowers it. We publish no resale estimate, liquidity score, or time-to-sell, because no such data is available to us. How buyback works

05 / Observed odds

Wildcard Master Pack odds — observed, not posted

Reconstructed from real pulls, so it reflects the pool as it drains — posted odds can't do that.

Across 30 indexed pulls, 20.0% returned at least the $100 pack price and 0.0% returned double or more; the single best recorded pull is $178.

Under $500.0%· stable
$50 – $10080.0%· stable
$100 – $200 · beats the pack20.0%· stable
$200 – $500 · big hit0.0%· stable
$500+ · chase0.0%· stable

Observed across 30 indexed pulls — what actually came out of this pack, independent of the posted odds. The 48h column shows tier drift: a falling green tier means the good cards are leaving the pool.

06 / Simulator

Wildcard Master Pack rip simulator

What ripping 1–20 packs looks like, using this pack's actual pull distribution.

Packs to rip5Hoping for

Cost: $500
Expected cash-out: $406
Expected net: -$94
≥1 hit chance: 67.2%

Based on the observed distribution of 30 pulls and a 85% buyback. Averages describe many rips — any single rip can land anywhere on the distribution.

Monte Carlo · 10,000 trials

Packs5

P(profit) 5.0%

Mean net −$94

Cost $500

Worst 5%: −$159
Bottom quartile: −$136
Median: −$100
Top quartile: −$63
Best 5%: −$0

Bootstrap resampling of 30 observed pulls with the 85% cash-out applied. Assumes the pool doesn't change as you rip — for top-heavy packs the downside is understated once the grail leaves. Estimates, not financial advice.

07 / Big hits

Biggest Wildcard Master Pack pulls

2025 One Piece English Version 2nd Anniversary Set #081 Marshall D. Teach (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$178PSA 10 GEM MINT

Caracalla, AD 198-217 PHOENICIA, SIDON BI Tetradrachm NGC VF

$160NGC VF

2017 Topps Chrome UEFA Champions League Lightning Strike #LS-LM Lionel Messi (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$148PSA 10 GEM MINT

2022 Pokémon Sword & Shield Dark Phantasma #074 Gengar - Full Art (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$141PSA 10 GEM MINT

1986 Topps #161 Jerry Rice (PSA 7 NM)

$125PSA 7 NM

2020 Topps Chrome UEFA Champions League #49 Erling Haaland - Pink X-Fractor (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$113PSA 10 GEM MINT

2024 Prismatic Evolutions - PRE EN #014/131 Flareon ex - Surprise Box (Prismatic Evolutions Stamp) (Holo) (CGC 10 PRISTINE)

$97CGC 10 PRISTINE

$2020 Topps Chrome Formula 1 #162 Max Verstappen - Refractor (PSA 10 GEM MINT)$

2020 Topps Chrome Formula 1 #162 Max Verstappen - Refractor (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$96PSA 10 GEM MINT

08 / EV history

Wildcard Master Pack EV over time

Snapshot per scraper run. The dashed line is break-even — EV above it is +EV.

Calibrated EV currently sits at $93.72, below the $100 pack price, and has moved up 8.6% over the last 7 days.

0.937xEV ratio

09 / Quick answers

Wildcard Master Pack — quick answers

Is Wildcard Master Pack worth buying right now?: Our current verdict is SKIP (score 37/100). Cash-out EV is $79 on a $100 pack (-20.7% net after the ~85% buyback) — the average rip loses money.
What is the EV of Wildcard Master Pack?: The calibrated EV is $93.72 against a pack price of $100.00, with a typical (median) pull of $85.60 across 30 indexed pulls.
What are the real odds of beating the pack price on Wildcard Master Pack?: 20.0% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price, and 0.0% returned at least double the price. These are observed odds reconstructed from real pulls, not the posted odds.
What is the typical pull from Wildcard Master Pack?: The median pull is $85.60 — half of all indexed rips returned less than that. The single best recorded pull is $178.00.

10 / Pull log