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Sports Ultra Pack vs Wildcard Master Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Sports Ultra Pack is currently the better value: a 1.128x EV ratio against Wildcard Master Pack's 0.978x, across 27 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricSports Ultra PackWildcard Master Pack
VerdictSKIPSKIP
Pack price$250$100
Calibrated EV$282.04$97.82
EV ratio1.128x0.978x
Cash-out EV ratio0.954x0.828x
Median pull$207.00$85.40
Hit rate30.0%23.5%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.52x0.28x
Pulls indexed1017

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

EV ratio over time, two packs compared. Sports Ultra Pack: 288 points from Jul 3 to Aug 15, starting at 0.95x and ending at 1.13x, up overall (+18.2%), ranging between 0.78x and 2.00x. Wildcard Master Pack: 288 points from Jul 3 to Aug 15, starting at 1.08x and ending at 0.98x, down overall (-9.4%), ranging between 0.82x and 1.14x.

Sports Ultra PackWildcard Master Pack

Ratios computed against each pack's current price.

03 / Quick answers

Sports Ultra Pack vs Wildcard Master Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Sports Ultra Pack or Wildcard Master Pack?
Sports Ultra Pack currently offers the better EV ratio (1.128x vs 0.978x). Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Sports Ultra Pack: 30.0% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Wildcard Master Pack: 23.5%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Sports Ultra Pack has the higher volatility (0.52x vs 0.28x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Sports Ultra Pack EV & verdict · Wildcard Master Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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