Is Football Ultra Pack worth buying right now?

Our current verdict is SKIP (score 27/100). Early read: only 16 pulls indexed — this is a lean, not a settled verdict. The numbers can swing hard until the sample reaches 30.

What is the EV of Football Ultra Pack?

The calibrated EV is $207.65 against a pack price of $250.00, with a typical (median) pull of $214.50 across 16 indexed pulls.

What are the real odds of beating the pack price on Football Ultra Pack?

12.5% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. These are observed odds reconstructed from real pulls, not the posted odds.

What is the typical pull from Football Ultra Pack?

The median pull is $214.50 — half of all indexed rips returned less than that. The single best recorded pull is $565.00.

Football

Football Ultra Pack

Football Ultra Pack is a $250 Courtyard Football mystery pack with a calibrated expected value of $207.65, worth $175.67 at its observed 85% buyback — a cash-out ratio of 0.703x (0.831x at sticker FMV), so it currently returns less than its price on the average rip once the buyback haircut is taken. 12.5% of 16 indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Early Rip Advisor lean (small sample): SKIP (27/100).

Ranked #74 of 129 tracked packs by cash-out ratio, #8 of 16 Football packs.

Buy on Courtyard ↗Opens courtyard.io — PullValue is independent and earns nothing from purchases.

Cash-out ratio

0.703x

$175.67 back on a $250 pack, at this pack's observed 85% buyback. At sticker FMV it is 0.831x.

SKIP-29.7% ROI

LOW CONFIDENCE· 16 pulls · 7dSIGNAL Weakening · 8 days ago

Calibrated EV: $208
Cash-out EV: $176
Pack price: $250
Typical pull: $215
Hit rate: 12.5%
Lifetime EV: $238
Pulls indexed: 16
Last pull: 7d ago

01 / Rip Advisor

Is Football Ultra Pack worth it right now?

Early readscore 27/100SKIP

050100

Early read: only 16 pulls indexed — this is a lean, not a settled verdict. The numbers can swing hard until the sample reaches 30.
Cash-out EV is $176 on a $250 pack (-29.7% net after the ~85% buyback) — the average rip loses money.
The typical pull (median) is $215 — most rips return less than the pack price; the EV is carried by rare chase cards.
EV has been stable over the last 7 days.
Low volatility: steady pack. Fewer duds, but also fewer moonshots.
Calibrated EV (recent pulls weighted) is $208 vs $238 lifetime — the pool has gotten worse recently.
12.5% of pulls meet or beat the pack price, across 16 indexed pulls.

Log this decision:

Verdict is computed transparently from indexed pulls: cash-out ROI, median pull, 7-day trend, hit rate, and sample size. Redemption shipping (typically $16+) is not included — cards worth less than a few times the shipping cost are usually better instant-sold than shipped. Not financial advice.

02 / Pool signals

What's happening in the Football Ultra Pack pool

Lifecycle stage, health, and chase removals — read from indexed pulls, never guessed.

16 pulls indexed — drift math needs 30+ to mean anything. Early read only.

BUILDING SAMPLE

16 pulls indexed — drift math needs 30+ to mean anything. Early read only.

Pro adds the Pool Health score and chase-removal impact.

Not observable: packs remaining, value remaining, and which chases are still in the pool — Courtyard publishes a pull feed, not inventory. We label those unavailable rather than estimate them. Everything above is computed from indexed pulls and EV snapshots; thin or stale data pulls the score toward neutral. Formula

Chase tracker

Needs 30+ indexed pulls to define a chase tier for this pack — 16 so far.

Signal lifetime

SIGNAL Weakening · 8 days ago

Pull flow has slowed past the usual gap of 4 days, so this read is ageing faster than the pack is producing evidence.

Newest pull: 8 days; observed
Pull rate: 0.2/day; observed
Pulls, 7d: 0; observed
Half-life: Pro

Aged, not predicted. Half-life counts how fast new evidence arrives, measured from real pull timestamps — it is not a forecast of where EV is heading. We publish no EV-drift half-life because our snapshot history is too short and its early stretch is seeded placeholder data; a number regressed from that would describe our seed script, not the market. Note the headline EV is decay-weighted, so it reacts to new pulls sooner than this whole-sample horizon implies. Methodology

03 / Contents

What has come out of Football Ultra Pack

The eras, sets and cards this pack has actually produced. A record of past pulls — Courtyard publishes no inventory, so this is not a statement about what is left.

Only 16 pulls indexed. Below 25 the proportions below move a lot on a single pull — read them as examples of what has appeared, not as a profile of the pack.

By era

Cards seen range from 1961 to 2025.

Current (2020+)69%$222 avg
Modern (2010-2019)19%$315 avg
Vintage (pre-2000)13%$212 avg

Most common sets

Sets these pulls came from.

Panini Prizm13%$201 avg
Topps13%$212 avg
Bowman University Chrome6%$224 avg
Panini6%$183 avg
Panini Donruss Downtown!6%$221 avg
Panini Instant NFL Draft Night6%$202 avg
Panini Mosaic6%$188 avg
Panini Mosaic Stained Glass6%$203 avg

Cards seen most often

Named on every readable pull.

Anthony Richardson6%$230 avg
Bo Nix6%$182 avg
Brock Bowers6%$221 avg
Carson Beck6%$224 avg
CJ Stroud6%$347 avg
Dan Marino6%$194 avg
Derrick Henry6%$217 avg
Jalen Milroe6%$203 avg

Built from the 16 indexed pulls of this pack so far — a record of what has come out, not a promise about what is left.

07 / Big hits

Biggest Football Ultra Pack pulls

2018 Panini Prizm Rookie Autographs #SD Sam Darnold - Red Wave (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$565PSA 10 GEM MINT

2022 Upper Deck Goodwin Champions SP Authentic 2000 Future Watch Auto #00TCJ CJ Stroud (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$347PSA 10 GEM MINT

1961 Topps #187 Joe Cannavino (PSA 9 MINT)

$230PSA 9 MINT

2023 Panini Phoenix #103 Anthony Richardson - Green Seismic (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$230PSA 10 GEM MINT

$2023 Bowman University Chrome #44 Carson Beck - Autograph-Refractor (PSA 10 GEM MINT)$

2023 Bowman University Chrome #44 Carson Beck - Autograph-Refractor (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$224PSA 10 GEM MINT

2024 Panini Prizm #315 Brock Bowers - Silver Prizm (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$221PSA 10 GEM MINT

2024 Panini Donruss Downtown! #14 Michael Penix Jr. (PSA 8 NM-MT)

$221PSA 8 NM-MT

2024 Panini Zenith Zoom Red #10 Derrick Henry - Spokes (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$217PSA 10 GEM MINT

08 / EV history

Football Ultra Pack EV over time

Snapshot per scraper run. The dashed line is break-even — EV above it is +EV.

Calibrated EV currently sits at $207.65, below the $250 pack price, and has moved up 0.0% over the last 7 days.

0.831xEV ratio

09 / Quick answers

Football Ultra Pack — quick answers

Is Football Ultra Pack worth buying right now?: Our current verdict is SKIP (score 27/100). Early read: only 16 pulls indexed — this is a lean, not a settled verdict. The numbers can swing hard until the sample reaches 30.
What is the EV of Football Ultra Pack?: The calibrated EV is $207.65 against a pack price of $250.00, with a typical (median) pull of $214.50 across 16 indexed pulls.
What are the real odds of beating the pack price on Football Ultra Pack?: 12.5% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. These are observed odds reconstructed from real pulls, not the posted odds.
What is the typical pull from Football Ultra Pack?: The median pull is $214.50 — half of all indexed rips returned less than that. The single best recorded pull is $565.00.

10 / Pull log

Latest Football Ultra Pack pulls

Compare Football Ultra Pack with other Football packs

Same math, same methodology — cash-out ratios after each pack's own buyback, so the comparison is apples to apples.

Understand these numbers

Every figure on this page — EV, EV ratio, hit rate, dilution — is defined once and computed the same way for every pack.