Is Football Ultra Pack worth buying right now?

Our current verdict is SKIP (score 22/100). Cash-out EV is $208 on a $250 pack (-16.9% net after the ~85% buyback) — the average rip loses money.

What is the EV of Football Ultra Pack?

The calibrated EV is $245.69 against a pack price of $250.00, with a typical (median) pull of $214.80 across 181 indexed pulls.

What are the real odds of beating the pack price on Football Ultra Pack?

26.0% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price, and 3.9% returned at least double the price. These are observed odds reconstructed from real pulls, not the posted odds.

What is the typical pull from Football Ultra Pack?

The median pull is $214.80 — half of all indexed rips returned less than that. The single best recorded pull is $2,157.90.

Football

Football Ultra Pack

Football Ultra Pack is a $250 Courtyard Football mystery pack with a calibrated expected value of $245.69, worth $207.85 at its observed 85% buyback — a cash-out ratio of 0.831x (0.983x at sticker FMV), so it currently returns less than its price on the average rip once the buyback haircut is taken. 26.0% of 181 indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Rip Advisor verdict: SKIP (22/100).

Ranked #55 of 74 ranked packs by cash-out ratio, #6 of 8 Football packs.

Buy on Courtyard ↗Opens courtyard.io — PullValue is independent and earns nothing from purchases.

Cash-out ratio

0.831x

$207.85 back on a $250 pack, at this pack's observed 85% buyback. At sticker FMV it is 0.983x.

95% range $175.01–$240.70, clear of the $250 price.

SKIP-16.9% ROI

HIGH CONFIDENCE · 181 pulls (49 effective) · todaySIGNAL Weakening · 16 h ago

Calibrated EV: $246
Cash-out EV: $208
Pack price: $250
Typical pull: $215
Hit rate: 26.0%
Lifetime EV: $259
Pulls indexed: 181
Last pull: 15h ago

01 / Rip Advisor

Is Football Ultra Pack worth it right now?

score 22/100SKIP

050100

Cash-out EV is $208 on a $250 pack (-16.9% net after the ~85% buyback) — the average rip loses money.
Cash-out EV is $207.85, and the sample is precise enough to place it below the $250.00 price: the 95% range is $175.01 to $240.70, which does not include the price.
The typical pull (median) is $215 — most rips return less than the pack price; the EV is carried by rare chase cards.
Recent pulls are averaging 7.3% below where they were 7 days ago. That is what the last week returned, not a reading of what is left — Courtyard publishes no inventory. A drop this size is consistent with the better cards having been pulled, and also with an unlucky week.
26.0% of pulls meet or beat the pack price, across 181 indexed pulls.

Downside · bottom-quartile rip

−$84

1 in 4 rips returns ≤ $166 cash — covering 66% of the price.

Upside · top-decile rip

+$70

1 in 10 rips returns ≥ $320 cash. Both figures use the observed buyback ratio.

Log this decision:

Verdict is computed transparently from indexed pulls: cash-out ROI, median pull, 7-day trend, hit rate, and sample size. Redemption shipping (typically $16+) is not included — cards worth less than a few times the shipping cost are usually better instant-sold than shipped. Not financial advice.

02 / Pool signals

What's happening in the Football Ultra Pack pool

Lifecycle stage, health, and chase removals — read from indexed pulls, never guessed.

Recent pulls run 7% below the lifetime average — the observed pool is weakening.

DEPLETING

Recent pulls run 7% below the lifetime average — the observed pool is weakening.

Pro adds the Pool Health score and chase-removal impact.

Not observable: packs remaining, value remaining, and which chases are still in the pool — Courtyard publishes a pull feed, not inventory. We label those unavailable rather than estimate them. Everything above is computed from indexed pulls and EV snapshots; thin or stale data pulls the score toward neutral. Formula

Chase tracker

chase tier ≥ $1,250 · confidence 100%

1 chase-tier card left this pack recently, carrying 5% of its observed average. Pro shows which cards and when.

Removals are facts; what's left is not. Each row is a unique graded card observed leaving this pack, so it is no longer in the pool — though a card can return after a buyback, which is why re-listings are flagged. We show no “chance it remains”: Courtyard publishes pulls, not inventory, so that number would be guesswork. Formula

Signal lifetime

SIGNAL Weakening · 16 h ago

Pull flow has slowed past the usual gap of 7.8 h, so this read is ageing faster than the pack is producing evidence. At the observed pull rate, half the evidence behind this read is replaced in about 59 days.

Newest pull: 16 h; observed
Pull rate: 3.1/day; observed
Pulls, 7d: 18; observed
Half-life: Pro

Aged, not predicted. Half-life counts how fast new evidence arrives, measured from real pull timestamps — it is not a forecast of where EV is heading. We publish no EV-drift half-life because our snapshot history is still too short for a regression to mean anything. The seeded placeholder points this note used to warn about have been flagged in the database and excluded from every chart, trend and score, so what you see plotted is observed data. Note the headline EV is decay-weighted, so it reacts to new pulls sooner than this whole-sample horizon implies. Methodology

03 / Contents

What has come out of Football Ultra Pack

The eras, sets and cards this pack has actually produced. A record of past pulls — Courtyard publishes no inventory, so this is not a statement about what is left.

By era

Cards seen range from 1948 to 2026.

Current (2020+)76%$268 avg
Modern (2010-2019)12%$237 avg
Vintage (pre-2000)10%$224 avg
Retro (2000-2009)2%$202 avg

Most common sets

Sets these pulls came from.

Panini Prizm12%$240 avg
Topps8%$236 avg
Panini Select6%$249 avg
Panini Donruss Optic Uptowns6%$275 avg
Panini Donruss Downtown!4%$247 avg
Panini Donruss Downtown4%$394 avg
Panini Donruss Optic4%$211 avg
Panini Donruss Optic Uptown4%$223 avg

Cards seen most often

Named on every readable pull.

Caleb Williams6%$246 avg
Patrick Mahomes II5%$208 avg
Drake Maye4%$210 avg
Joe Montana4%$213 avg
JJ McCarthy3%$244 avg
Jaxson Dart3%$199 avg
Jayden Daniels3%$198 avg
Lamar Jackson3%$241 avg

Built from the 181 indexed pulls of this pack so far — a record of what has come out, not a promise about what is left.

04 / Floor safety

Football Ultra Pack floor safety & buyback reality

The two ways average EV lies to you — how top-heavy the pack is, and what FMV actually converts to in cash — then which exit pays most.

In Football Ultra Pack, the top 2% of pulls account for 9% of all pulled value — low dilution. Value is spread fairly evenly across the pool, so the average is close to what a typical rip returns. The observed instant-offer ratio is 85% of FMV, which is the cash number every verdict on this page already uses.

Floor safety

low dilution

9% of everything this pack has paid out came from just the top 2% of pulls. Value is spread broadly across pulls, so the average sits closer to the typical rip here than it does on a top-heavy pack. It still sits above the median — check both.

Buyback reality

84.6% of FMV observed

Across 177 indexed pulls that carry a recorded bid, a $100 FMV pull cashes out around $85 if you instant-sell — in line with the platform's 84.6%. This is the figure every verdict on the site multiplies by.

Holding, listing, or physically redeeming can beat the instant offer — but redemption shipping (typically $16+) eats small wins.

Net exit value

177 paired pulls · 98% bid coverage · confidence 100%

Instant-selling the average (mean) pull here returns $219.54 — $39.96 below sticker FMV (15.4% haircut). That figure is the average of bids we actually recorded, not the platform rate applied blind.

Pro compares all three exits side by side, with the redemption breakeven and the value-by-value haircut curve for this pack.

Bids are recorded, resale is not. Instant-buyback figures are real offers captured at index time and can move. Redemption shipping starts near $16 in the US, is higher internationally, and is charged per shipment — batching pulls lowers it. We publish no resale estimate, liquidity score, or time-to-sell, because no such data is available to us. How buyback works

05 / Observed odds

Football Ultra Pack odds — observed, not posted

Reconstructed from real pulls, so it shows what has actually been coming out — posted odds can't do that. It is a record of pulls, not a count of what is left.

Across 181 indexed pulls, 26.0% returned at least the $250 pack price and 3.9% returned double or more; the single best recorded pull is $2,158.

Under $1250.0%· stable
$125 – $25074.0%· stable
$250 – $500 · beats the pack22.1%· stable
$500 – $1,250 · big hit3.3%· stable
$1,250+ · chase0.6%· stable

Observed across 181 indexed pulls — what actually came out of this pack, independent of the posted odds. The 48h column shows tier drift: a falling green tier means fewer of the good cards have come out lately — which may mean they are running out, or may just be a quiet 48 hours.

06 / Simulator

Football Ultra Pack rip simulator

What ripping 1–20 packs looks like, using this pack's actual pull distribution.

Packs to rip5Hoping for

Averaged over

$245.69 per pull

Cost: $1,250
Expected cash-out: $1,039
Expected net: -$211
≥1 hit chance: 77.8%

Recent pool: pulls are weighted so newer ones count for more, the same basis as this pack’s headline, verdict and the budget tool. The 181 pulls behind the hit chance are unweighted either way, and the 85% buyback is applied to both. These two disagree here: -$42.15 per pack recent-weighted against -$31.28 all-time. The pool has moved, so which number you want depends on whether you think the recent run continues. Averages describe many rips — any single rip can land anywhere on the distribution.

Monte Carlo · 10,000 trials

Packs5

P(profit) 16.3%

Mean net −$153

Cost $1,250

Worst 5%: −$408
Bottom quartile: −$336
Median: −$233
Top quartile: −$78
Best 5%: +$238

Bootstrap resampling of 181 observed pulls with the 85% cash-out applied. Every pull is drawn with equal probability, so this is an all-time average: it will sit below the headline whenever the recent pool has run better than the lifetime one, and above it when the reverse is true. It also assumes the pool doesn't change as you rip — for top-heavy packs the downside is understated once the grail leaves. Estimates, not financial advice.

07 / Big hits

Biggest Football Ultra Pack pulls

2020 Panini Donruss Optic Downtown #DT40 Joe Burrow (PSA 9 MINT)

$2,158PSA 9 MINT

2025 Panini Prizm Draft Picks Color Blast #9 Dante Moore (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$650PSA 10 GEM MINT

2024 Panini Absolute Kaboom! Horizontal #14 Michael Penix Jr. (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$648PSA 10 GEM MINT

2024 Panini Donruss Optic Uptowns #1 Caleb Williams (PSA 9 MINT)

$619PSA 9 MINT

2018 Panini Prizm Rookie Autographs #SD Sam Darnold - Red Wave (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$565PSA 10 GEM MINT

1987 Topps #362 Jim Kelly (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$560PSA 10 GEM MINT

2024 Panini Absolute Kaboom! Horizontal #5 Travis Kelce (PSA 9 MINT)

$506PSA 9 MINT

2022 Panini Donruss Downtown #DTMW Malik Willis (PSA 9 MINT)

$497PSA 9 MINT

08 / EV history

Football Ultra Pack EV over time

Snapshot per scraper run. The dashed line is break-even — EV above it is +EV.

Calibrated EV currently sits at $245.69, below the $250 pack price, and has moved down 7.3% over the last 7 days.

0.831xCash-out ratio

09 / Quick answers

Football Ultra Pack — quick answers

Is Football Ultra Pack worth buying right now?: Our current verdict is SKIP (score 22/100). Cash-out EV is $208 on a $250 pack (-16.9% net after the ~85% buyback) — the average rip loses money.
What is the EV of Football Ultra Pack?: The calibrated EV is $245.69 against a pack price of $250.00, with a typical (median) pull of $214.80 across 181 indexed pulls.
What are the real odds of beating the pack price on Football Ultra Pack?: 26.0% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price, and 3.9% returned at least double the price. These are observed odds reconstructed from real pulls, not the posted odds.
What is the typical pull from Football Ultra Pack?: The median pull is $214.80 — half of all indexed rips returned less than that. The single best recorded pull is $2,157.90.

10 / Pull log