Is Football Diamond Pack worth buying right now?

Our current verdict is NO DATA (score 0/100). No pack price on record, so no net or ROI figure can be computed.

What is the EV of Football Diamond Pack?

The calibrated EV is $1,572.38 against a pack price of not yet set, with a typical (median) pull of $909.25 across 32 indexed pulls.

What are the real odds of beating the pack price on Football Diamond Pack?

We cannot say yet. Football Diamond Pack has no pack price on record, and the odds of beating a price are undefined until there is one to beat. The 32 indexed pulls are still shown below as a record of what has come out.

What is the typical pull from Football Diamond Pack?

The median pull is $909.25 — half of all indexed rips returned less than that. The single best recorded pull is $4,230.00.

Football

Football Diamond Pack

Football Diamond Pack is a Courtyard Football mystery pack with a calibrated expected value of $1,572.38 and a typical (median) pull of $909.25 across 32 indexed pulls. Its pack price is not yet confirmed, so the EV ratio, hit rate, and Rip Advisor verdict are pending.

Calibrated EV

$1,572

— ROI

EMERGING · 32 pulls (9 effective) · todaySIGNAL Weakening · 23 h ago

Calibrated EV: $1,572
Cash-out EV: $1,330
Pack price: Unknown
Typical pull: $909
Hit rate: —
Lifetime EV: $1,191
Pulls indexed: 32
Last pull: 22h ago

01 / Rip Advisor

Is Football Diamond Pack worth it right now?

score 0/100NO DATA

050100

No pack price on record, so no net or ROI figure can be computed.

Log this decision:

Verdict is computed transparently from indexed pulls: cash-out ROI, median pull, 7-day trend, hit rate, and sample size. Redemption shipping (typically $16+) is not included — cards worth less than a few times the shipping cost are usually better instant-sold than shipped. Not financial advice.

02 / Pool signals

What's happening in the Football Diamond Pack pool

Lifecycle stage, health, and chase removals — read from indexed pulls, never guessed.

No price set — pool economics can’t be computed.

NO DATA

No price set — pool economics can’t be computed.

Pro adds the Pool Health score and chase-removal impact.

Not observable: packs remaining, value remaining, and which chases are still in the pool — Courtyard publishes a pull feed, not inventory. We label those unavailable rather than estimate them. Everything above is computed from indexed pulls and EV snapshots; thin or stale data pulls the score toward neutral. Formula

Chase tracker

No pack price set, so a chase tier cannot be anchored.

Signal lifetime

SIGNAL Weakening · 23 h ago

Pull flow has slowed past the usual gap of 20 h, so this read is ageing faster than the pack is producing evidence. At the observed pull rate, half the evidence behind this read is replaced in about 27 days.

Newest pull: 23 h; observed
Pull rate: 1.2/day; observed
Pulls, 7d: 8; observed
Half-life: Pro

Aged, not predicted. Half-life counts how fast new evidence arrives, measured from real pull timestamps — it is not a forecast of where EV is heading. We publish no EV-drift half-life because our snapshot history is still too short for a regression to mean anything. The seeded placeholder points this note used to warn about have been flagged in the database and excluded from every chart, trend and score, so what you see plotted is observed data. Note the headline EV is decay-weighted, so it reacts to new pulls sooner than this whole-sample horizon implies. Methodology

03 / Contents

What has come out of Football Diamond Pack

The eras, sets and cards this pack has actually produced. A record of past pulls — Courtyard publishes no inventory, so this is not a statement about what is left.

By era

Cards seen range from 1957 to 2025.

Current (2020+)84%$1,024 avg
Modern (2010-2019)13%$2,298 avg
Vintage (pre-2000)3%$1,275 avg

Most common sets

Sets these pulls came from.

Panini Prizm16%$1,479 avg
Panini Absolute Kaboom!9%$869 avg
Panini Donruss Downtown6%$828 avg
Panini Donruss Downtown!6%$745 avg
Panini Donruss Optic6%$801 avg
Panini Donruss Optic Downtown6%$876 avg
Bowman University Best Best of 2023 Autographs3%$1,450 avg
Panini Contenders3%$1,220 avg

Cards seen most often

Named on every readable pull.

Tua Tagovailoa9%$905 avg
Lamar Jackson6%$890 avg
Aidan O'Connell3%$828 avg
Anthony Richardson3%$759 avg
Ashton Jeanty3%$709 avg
Bart Starr3%$1,275 avg
Bo Nix3%$1,450 avg
Bo Nix/John Elway3%$981 avg

Built from the 32 indexed pulls of this pack so far — a record of what has come out, not a promise about what is left.

04 / Floor safety

Football Diamond Pack floor safety & buyback reality

The two ways average EV lies to you — how top-heavy the pack is, and what FMV actually converts to in cash — then which exit pays most.

In Football Diamond Pack, the top 2% of pulls account for 11% of all pulled value — low dilution. Value is spread fairly evenly across the pool, so the average is close to what a typical rip returns. The observed instant-offer ratio is 85% of FMV, which is the cash number every verdict on this page already uses.

Floor safety

low dilution

11% of everything this pack has paid out came from just the top 2% of pulls. Value is spread broadly across pulls, so the average sits closer to the typical rip here than it does on a top-heavy pack. It still sits above the median — check both.

Buyback reality

84.6% of FMV observed

Across 32 indexed pulls that carry a recorded bid, a $100 FMV pull cashes out around $85 if you instant-sell — in line with the platform's 84.6%. This is the figure every verdict on the site multiplies by.

Holding, listing, or physically redeeming can beat the instant offer — but redemption shipping (typically $16+) eats small wins.

Net exit value

32 paired pulls · 100% bid coverage · confidence 75%

Instant-selling the average (mean) pull here returns $1,007.83 — $183.46 below sticker FMV (15.4% haircut). That figure is the average of bids we actually recorded, not the platform rate applied blind.

Pro compares all three exits side by side, with the redemption breakeven and the value-by-value haircut curve for this pack.

Bids are recorded, resale is not. Instant-buyback figures are real offers captured at index time and can move. Redemption shipping starts near $16 in the US, is higher internationally, and is charged per shipment — batching pulls lowers it. We publish no resale estimate, liquidity score, or time-to-sell, because no such data is available to us. How buyback works

05 / Observed odds

Football Diamond Pack odds — observed, not posted

Reconstructed from real pulls, so it shows what has actually been coming out — posted odds can't do that. It is a record of pulls, not a count of what is left.

Under $4550.0%· stable
$455 – $90950.0%· stable
$909 – $1,819 · beats the pack37.5%· stable
$1,819 – $4,546 · big hit12.5%· stable
$4,546+ · chase0.0%· stable

Observed across 32 indexed pulls — what actually came out of this pack, independent of the posted odds. The 48h column shows tier drift: a falling green tier means fewer of the good cards have come out lately — which may mean they are running out, or may just be a quiet 48 hours.

07 / Big hits

Biggest Football Diamond Pack pulls

2019 Panini Prizm #339 Tony Pollard - Black Finite 1/1 (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$4,230PSA 10 GEM MINT

2016 Rookies and Stars Rookie Longevity Signatures Gold #29 Derrick Henry (BGS 9.5 GEM MINT)

$3,308BGS 9.5 GEM MINT

2024 Panini Prizm Color Blast #23 Saquon Barkley (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$2,682PSA 10 GEM MINT

2024 Topps Chrome Rookie Autographs Variations #RACWI Caleb Williams (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$2,130PSA 10 GEM MINT

2020 Panini Honors #11 Jordan Love - Signature-Purple (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$1,490PSA 10 GEM MINT

2023 Bowman University Best Best of 2023 Autographs #BOABN Bo Nix - Red Geometric (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$1,450PSA 10 GEM MINT

1957 Topps #119 Bart Starr (PSA 5 EX)

$1,275PSA 5 EX

2022 Panini Contenders #117 Garrett Wilson - Autograph-Cracked Ice (PSA 9 MINT)

$1,220PSA 9 MINT

08 / EV history

Football Diamond Pack EV over time

Snapshot per scraper run. The dashed line is break-even — EV above it is +EV.

Calibrated EV currently sits at $1,572.38, and has moved up 54.9% over the last 7 days.

$1572.38EV

09 / Quick answers

Football Diamond Pack — quick answers

Is Football Diamond Pack worth buying right now?: Our current verdict is NO DATA (score 0/100). No pack price on record, so no net or ROI figure can be computed.
What is the EV of Football Diamond Pack?: The calibrated EV is $1,572.38 against a pack price of not yet set, with a typical (median) pull of $909.25 across 32 indexed pulls.
What are the real odds of beating the pack price on Football Diamond Pack?: We cannot say yet. Football Diamond Pack has no pack price on record, and the odds of beating a price are undefined until there is one to beat. The 32 indexed pulls are still shown below as a record of what has come out.
What is the typical pull from Football Diamond Pack?: The median pull is $909.25 — half of all indexed rips returned less than that. The single best recorded pull is $4,230.00.

10 / Pull log