Football Master Pack vs Football Ultra Pack: which pack is the better rip?
On live data, Football Ultra Pack is currently the better value: a 0.961x cash-out ratio against Football Master Pack's 0.887x, across 1,166 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.
| Metric | Football Master Pack | Football Ultra Pack |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | CAUTION | CAUTION |
| Pack price | $100 | $250 |
| Calibrated EV | $104.02 | $284.13 |
| Cash-out ratio | 0.887x | 0.961x |
| EV ratio (at sticker FMV) | 1.040x | 1.137x |
| Median pull | $85.00 | $215.80 |
| Hit rate | 31.3% | 29.8% |
| Volatility (stddev/EV) | 0.45x | 0.68x |
| Pulls indexed | 931 | 235 |
02 / EV history
EV ratio over time, overlaid
Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Football Master Pack: 1000 points from Aug 7 to Nov 3, starting at 0.95x and ending at 0.89x, down overall (-6.4%), ranging between 0.72x and 1.02x. Football Ultra Pack: 1000 points from Aug 7 to Nov 3, starting at 0.86x and ending at 0.96x, up overall (+11.6%), ranging between 0.69x and 1.12x.
Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.
03 / Quick answers
Football Master Pack vs Football Ultra Pack — quick answers
- Which is better value right now: Football Master Pack or Football Ultra Pack?
- Football Ultra Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.961x vs 0.887x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
- Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
- Football Master Pack: 31.3% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Football Ultra Pack: 29.8%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
- Which pack is riskier?
- Football Ultra Pack has the higher volatility (0.68x vs 0.45x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.
Full pages: Football Master Pack EV & verdict · Football Ultra Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies