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Football Master Pack vs Football Ultra Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Football Ultra Pack is currently the better value: a 1.132x EV ratio against Football Master Pack's 1.053x, across 24 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricFootball Master PackFootball Ultra Pack
VerdictCAUTIONCAUTION
Pack price$100$250
Calibrated EV$105.30$282.90
EV ratio1.053x1.132x
Cash-out EV ratio0.891x0.957x
Median pull$87.80$221.00
Hit rate36.8%40.0%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.35x0.47x
Pulls indexed195

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

EV ratio over time, two packs compared. Football Master Pack: 144 points from Jul 3 to Aug 4, starting at 0.84x and ending at 1.05x, up overall (+25.1%), ranging between 0.74x and 1.20x. Football Ultra Pack: 143 points from Jul 3 to Aug 4, starting at 1.17x and ending at 1.13x, down overall (-3.3%), ranging between 0.85x and 1.64x.

Football Master PackFootball Ultra Pack

Ratios computed against each pack's current price.

03 / Quick answers

Football Master Pack vs Football Ultra Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Football Master Pack or Football Ultra Pack?
Football Ultra Pack currently offers the better EV ratio (1.132x vs 1.053x). Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Football Master Pack: 36.8% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Football Ultra Pack: 40.0%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Football Ultra Pack has the higher volatility (0.47x vs 0.35x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Football Master Pack EV & verdict · Football Ultra Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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