Is Hockey Ultra Pack worth buying right now?

Our current verdict is CAUTION (score 50/100). Early read: only 14 pulls indexed — this is a lean, not a settled verdict. The numbers can swing hard until the sample reaches 30.

What is the EV of Hockey Ultra Pack?

The calibrated EV is $267.31 against a pack price of $250.00, with a typical (median) pull of $227.05 across 14 indexed pulls.

What are the real odds of beating the pack price on Hockey Ultra Pack?

35.7% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. These are observed odds reconstructed from real pulls, not the posted odds.

What is the typical pull from Hockey Ultra Pack?

The median pull is $227.05 — half of all indexed rips returned less than that. The single best recorded pull is $407.50.

Hockey

Hockey Ultra Pack

Hockey Ultra Pack is a $250 Courtyard Hockey mystery pack with a calibrated expected value of $267.31, worth $226.14 at its observed 85% buyback — a cash-out ratio of 0.905x (1.069x at sticker FMV), so it currently returns less than its price on the average rip once the buyback haircut is taken. 35.7% of 14 indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Early Rip Advisor lean (small sample): CAUTION (50/100).

Ranked #20 of 74 ranked packs by cash-out ratio, #2 of 5 Hockey packs.

This pack is no longer sold on Courtyard — the numbers below are its historical record.

Cash-out ratio

0.905x

$226.14 back on a $250 pack, at this pack's observed 85% buyback. At sticker FMV it is 1.069x.

95% range $177.79–$274.50 — that still includes the $250 price, so this edge is inside the noise of the sample.

CAUTION-9.5% ROI

EMERGING · 14 pulls · todaySIGNAL Active · 16 h ago

Calibrated EV: $267
Cash-out EV: $226
Pack price: $250
Typical pull: $227
Hit rate: 35.7%
Lifetime EV: $257
Pulls indexed: 14
Last pull: 16h ago

01 / Rip Advisor

Is Hockey Ultra Pack worth it right now?

Early readscore 50/100CAUTION

050100

Early read: only 14 pulls indexed — this is a lean, not a settled verdict. The numbers can swing hard until the sample reaches 30.
Cash-out EV is $226 on a $250 pack (-9.5% net after the ~85% buyback) — the average rip loses money.
Cash-out EV is $226.14 against a $250.00 price, and that gap is smaller than the uncertainty around it — the 95% range is $177.79 to $274.50. On this sample the pack cannot be told apart from break-even in either direction.
The typical pull (median) is $227 — most rips return less than the pack price; the EV is carried by rare chase cards.
Recent pulls are averaging 6.2% above where they were 7 days ago. A restock would look like this; so would a lucky week. We cannot see inventory, so this is a change in what came out, not a confirmed change in what is in there.
Low volatility: steady pack. Fewer duds, but also fewer moonshots.
35.7% of pulls meet or beat the pack price, across 14 indexed pulls.

Log this decision:

Verdict is computed transparently from indexed pulls: cash-out ROI, median pull, 7-day trend, hit rate, and sample size. Redemption shipping (typically $16+) is not included — cards worth less than a few times the shipping cost are usually better instant-sold than shipped. Not financial advice.

02 / Pool signals

What's happening in the Hockey Ultra Pack pool

Lifecycle stage, health, and chase removals — read from indexed pulls, never guessed.

14 pulls indexed — drift math needs 30+ to mean anything. Early read only.

BUILDING SAMPLE

14 pulls indexed — drift math needs 30+ to mean anything. Early read only.

Pro adds the Pool Health score and chase-removal impact.

Not observable: packs remaining, value remaining, and which chases are still in the pool — Courtyard publishes a pull feed, not inventory. We label those unavailable rather than estimate them. Everything above is computed from indexed pulls and EV snapshots; thin or stale data pulls the score toward neutral. Formula

Chase tracker

Needs 30+ indexed pulls to define a chase tier for this pack — 14 so far.

Signal lifetime

SIGNAL Active · 16 h ago

Current, with pulls still arriving at the usual rate. At the observed pull rate, half the evidence behind this read is replaced in about 14 days.

Newest pull: 16 h; observed
Pull rate: 1.0/day; observed
Pulls, 7d: 4; observed
Half-life: Pro

Aged, not predicted. Half-life counts how fast new evidence arrives, measured from real pull timestamps — it is not a forecast of where EV is heading. We publish no EV-drift half-life because our snapshot history is still too short for a regression to mean anything. The seeded placeholder points this note used to warn about have been flagged in the database and excluded from every chart, trend and score, so what you see plotted is observed data. Note the headline EV is decay-weighted, so it reacts to new pulls sooner than this whole-sample horizon implies. Methodology

03 / Contents

What has come out of Hockey Ultra Pack

The eras, sets and cards this pack has actually produced. A record of past pulls — Courtyard publishes no inventory, so this is not a statement about what is left.

Only 14 pulls indexed. Below 25 the proportions below move a lot on a single pull — read them as examples of what has appeared, not as a profile of the pack.

By era

Cards seen range from 1954 to 2025.

Current (2020+)43%$242 avg
Vintage (pre-2000)29%$238 avg
Modern (2010-2019)21%$323 avg
Retro (2000-2009)7%$229 avg

Most common sets

Sets these pulls came from.

Upper Deck43%$265 avg
O-Pee-Chee14%$263 avg
O-Pee-Chee Platinum Rookie Autographs7%$400 avg
Parkhurst7%$199 avg
SP Authentic7%$264 avg
Topps7%$225 avg
Upper Deck Allure Color Flow7%$203 avg
Upper Deck Pwhl 1st Edition7%$198 avg

Cards seen most often

Named on every readable pull.

Auston Matthews7%$341 avg
Brian Leetch7%$341 avg
Connor Bedard7%$185 avg
Emma Maltais7%$198 avg
Evgeni Malkin7%$229 avg
Jack Hughes7%$229 avg
Johnny Bowers7%$199 avg
Logan Cooley7%$196 avg

Built from the 14 indexed pulls of this pack so far — a record of what has come out, not a promise about what is left.

07 / Big hits

Biggest Hockey Ultra Pack pulls

2025 Upper Deck #136 Macklin Celebrini - Outburst (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$408PSA 10 GEM MINT

2016 O-Pee-Chee Platinum Rookie Autographs #RBA Mathew Barzal - Orange Rainbow (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$400PSA 10 GEM MINT

2016 Upper Deck #201 Auston Matthews (PSA 9 MINT)

$341PSA 9 MINT

1989 O-Pee-Chee #136 Brian Leetch (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$341PSA 10 GEM MINT

2022 SP Authentic #113 Lukas Dostal - Autograph (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$264PSA 10 GEM MINT

2006 Upper Deck #486 Evgeni Malkin (PSA 9 MINT)

$229PSA 9 MINT

2019 Upper Deck #201 Jack Hughes (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$229PSA 10 GEM MINT

1981 Topps #16 Wayne Gretzky (PSA 9 MINT)

$225PSA 9 MINT

08 / EV history

Hockey Ultra Pack EV over time

Snapshot per scraper run. The dashed line is break-even — EV above it is +EV.

Calibrated EV currently sits at $267.31, above the $250 pack price, and has moved up 6.2% over the last 7 days.

0.905xCash-out ratio

09 / Quick answers

Hockey Ultra Pack — quick answers

Is Hockey Ultra Pack worth buying right now?: Our current verdict is CAUTION (score 50/100). Early read: only 14 pulls indexed — this is a lean, not a settled verdict. The numbers can swing hard until the sample reaches 30.
What is the EV of Hockey Ultra Pack?: The calibrated EV is $267.31 against a pack price of $250.00, with a typical (median) pull of $227.05 across 14 indexed pulls.
What are the real odds of beating the pack price on Hockey Ultra Pack?: 35.7% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. These are observed odds reconstructed from real pulls, not the posted odds.
What is the typical pull from Hockey Ultra Pack?: The median pull is $227.05 — half of all indexed rips returned less than that. The single best recorded pull is $407.50.

10 / Pull log

Latest Hockey Ultra Pack pulls

Compare Hockey Ultra Pack with other Hockey packs

Same math, same methodology — cash-out ratios after each pack's own buyback, so the comparison is apples to apples.

Understand these numbers

Every figure on this page — EV, EV ratio, hit rate, dilution — is defined once and computed the same way for every pack.