Is Hockey Ultra Pack worth buying right now?

Our current verdict is CAUTION (score 49/100). Cash-out EV is $221 on a $250 pack (-11.7% net after the ~85% buyback) — the average rip loses money.

What is the EV of Hockey Ultra Pack?

The calibrated EV is $260.92 against a pack price of $250.00, with a typical (median) pull of $212.00 across 101 indexed pulls.

What are the real odds of beating the pack price on Hockey Ultra Pack?

28.7% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price, and 5.0% returned at least double the price. These are observed odds reconstructed from real pulls, not the posted odds.

What is the typical pull from Hockey Ultra Pack?

The median pull is $212.00 — half of all indexed rips returned less than that. The single best recorded pull is $1,264.50.

Hockey

Hockey Ultra Pack

Hockey Ultra Pack is a $250 Courtyard Hockey mystery pack with a calibrated expected value of $260.92, worth $220.74 at its observed 85% buyback — a cash-out ratio of 0.883x (1.044x at sticker FMV), so it currently returns less than its price on the average rip once the buyback haircut is taken. 28.7% of 101 indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Rip Advisor verdict: CAUTION (49/100).

Ranked #29 of 76 ranked packs by cash-out ratio, #3 of 5 Hockey packs.

This pack is no longer sold on Courtyard — the numbers below are its historical record.

Cash-out ratio

0.883x

$220.74 back on a $250 pack, at this pack's observed 85% buyback. At sticker FMV it is 1.044x.

95% range $184.99–$256.48 — that still includes the $250 price, so this edge is inside the noise of the sample.

CAUTION-11.7% ROI

HIGH CONFIDENCE · 101 pulls (32 effective) · 1dSIGNAL Weakening · 26 h ago

Calibrated EV: $261
Cash-out EV: $221
Pack price: $250
Typical pull: $212
Hit rate: 28.7%
Lifetime EV: $261
Pulls indexed: 101
Last pull: 1d ago

01 / Rip Advisor

Is Hockey Ultra Pack worth it right now?

score 49/100CAUTION

050100

Cash-out EV is $221 on a $250 pack (-11.7% net after the ~85% buyback) — the average rip loses money.
Cash-out EV is $220.74 against a $250.00 price, but the sample is not precise enough to call that a real edge — the 95% range is $184.99 to $256.48, which still includes the price. It leans negative; it is not established.
The typical pull (median) is $212 — most rips return less than the pack price; the EV is carried by rare chase cards.
Recent pulls are averaging 15.5% above where they were 7 days ago. A restock would look like this; so would a lucky week. We cannot see inventory, so this is a change in what came out, not a confirmed change in what is in there.
28.7% of pulls meet or beat the pack price, across 101 indexed pulls.

Downside · bottom-quartile rip

−$88

1 in 4 rips returns ≤ $162 cash — covering 65% of the price.

Upside · top-decile rip

+$38

1 in 10 rips returns ≥ $288 cash. Both figures use the observed buyback ratio.

Log this decision:

Verdict is computed transparently from indexed pulls: cash-out ROI, median pull, 7-day trend, hit rate, and sample size. Redemption shipping (typically $16+) is not included — cards worth less than a few times the shipping cost are usually better instant-sold than shipped. Not financial advice.

02 / Pool signals

What's happening in the Hockey Ultra Pack pool

Lifecycle stage, health, and chase removals — read from indexed pulls, never guessed.

Recent pulls are running above the lifetime average (EV +15% over 7 days) — the pool is trending up without a restock-sized jump.

IMPROVING

Recent pulls are running above the lifetime average (EV +15% over 7 days) — the pool is trending up without a restock-sized jump.

Pro adds the Pool Health score and chase-removal impact.

Not observable: packs remaining, value remaining, and which chases are still in the pool — Courtyard publishes a pull feed, not inventory. We label those unavailable rather than estimate them. Everything above is computed from indexed pulls and EV snapshots; thin or stale data pulls the score toward neutral. Formula

Chase tracker

chase tier ≥ $1,250 · confidence 100%

1 chase-tier card left this pack recently, carrying 5% of its observed average. Pro shows which cards and when.

Removals are facts; what's left is not. Each row is a unique graded card observed leaving this pack, so it is no longer in the pool — though a card can return after a buyback, which is why re-listings are flagged. We show no “chance it remains”: Courtyard publishes pulls, not inventory, so that number would be guesswork. Formula

Signal lifetime

SIGNAL Weakening · 26 h ago

Pull flow has slowed past the usual gap of 9.6 h, so this read is ageing faster than the pack is producing evidence. At the observed pull rate, half the evidence behind this read is replaced in about 40 days.

Newest pull: 26 h; observed
Pull rate: 2.5/day; observed
Pulls, 7d: 18; observed
Half-life: Pro

Aged, not predicted. Half-life counts how fast new evidence arrives, measured from real pull timestamps — it is not a forecast of where EV is heading. We publish no EV-drift half-life because our snapshot history is still too short for a regression to mean anything. The seeded placeholder points this note used to warn about have been flagged in the database and excluded from every chart, trend and score, so what you see plotted is observed data. Note the headline EV is decay-weighted, so it reacts to new pulls sooner than this whole-sample horizon implies. Methodology

03 / Contents

What has come out of Hockey Ultra Pack

The eras, sets and cards this pack has actually produced. A record of past pulls — Courtyard publishes no inventory, so this is not a statement about what is left.

By era

Cards seen range from 1954 to 2026.

Current (2020+)61%$220 avg
Modern (2010-2019)17%$326 avg
Vintage (pre-2000)14%$291 avg
Retro (2000-2009)8%$385 avg

Most common sets

Sets these pulls came from.

Upper Deck50%$265 avg
Topps9%$316 avg
SP Authentic4%$383 avg
Upper Deck UD Portraits4%$209 avg
O-Pee-Chee3%$275 avg
Upper Deck O-Pee-Chee3%$200 avg
Upper Deck Young Guns Renewed3%$189 avg
Upper Deck Canvas2%$190 avg

Cards seen most often

Named on every readable pull.

Macklin Celebrini18%$243 avg
Connor Bedard5%$205 avg
Matthew Schaefer5%$224 avg
Kirill Kaprizov4%$187 avg
Logan Cooley4%$194 avg
Ben Kindel3%$222 avg
Jack Hughes3%$218 avg
Mario Lemieux3%$307 avg

Built from the 101 indexed pulls of this pack so far — a record of what has come out, not a promise about what is left.

04 / Floor safety

Hockey Ultra Pack floor safety & buyback reality

The two ways average EV lies to you — how top-heavy the pack is, and what FMV actually converts to in cash — then which exit pays most.

In Hockey Ultra Pack, the top 2% of pulls account for 12% of all pulled value — low dilution. Value is spread fairly evenly across the pool, so the average is close to what a typical rip returns. The observed instant-offer ratio is 85% of FMV, which is the cash number every verdict on this page already uses.

Floor safety

low dilution

12% of everything this pack has paid out came from just the top 2% of pulls. Value is spread broadly across pulls, so the average sits closer to the typical rip here than it does on a top-heavy pack. It still sits above the median — check both.

Buyback reality

84.6% of FMV observed

Across 99 indexed pulls that carry a recorded bid, a $100 FMV pull cashes out around $85 if you instant-sell — in line with the platform's 84.6%. This is the figure every verdict on the site multiplies by.

Holding, listing, or physically redeeming can beat the instant offer — but redemption shipping (typically $16+) eats small wins.

Net exit value

99 paired pulls · 98% bid coverage · confidence 100%

Instant-selling the average (mean) pull here returns $220.64 — $40.16 below sticker FMV (15.4% haircut). That figure is the average of bids we actually recorded, not the platform rate applied blind.

Pro compares all three exits side by side, with the redemption breakeven and the value-by-value haircut curve for this pack.

Bids are recorded, resale is not. Instant-buyback figures are real offers captured at index time and can move. Redemption shipping starts near $16 in the US, is higher internationally, and is charged per shipment — batching pulls lowers it. We publish no resale estimate, liquidity score, or time-to-sell, because no such data is available to us. How buyback works

05 / Observed odds

Hockey Ultra Pack odds — observed, not posted

Reconstructed from real pulls, so it shows what has actually been coming out — posted odds can't do that. It is a record of pulls, not a count of what is left.

Across 101 indexed pulls, 28.7% returned at least the $250 pack price and 5.0% returned double or more; the single best recorded pull is $1,265.

Under $1250.0%· stable
$125 – $25071.3%· stable
$250 – $500 · beats the pack23.8%· stable
$500 – $1,250 · big hit4.0%· stable
$1,250+ · chase1.0%· stable

Observed across 101 indexed pulls — what actually came out of this pack, independent of the posted odds. The 48h column shows tier drift: a falling green tier means fewer of the good cards have come out lately — which may mean they are running out, or may just be a quiet 48 hours.

06 / Simulator

Hockey Ultra Pack rip simulator

What ripping 1–20 packs looks like, using this pack's actual pull distribution.

Packs to rip5Hoping for

Averaged over

$260.92 per pull

Cost: $1,250
Expected cash-out: $1,104
Expected net: -$146
≥1 hit chance: 81.6%

Recent pool: pulls are weighted so newer ones count for more, the same basis as this pack’s headline, verdict and the budget tool. The 101 pulls behind the hit chance are unweighted either way, and the 85% buyback is applied to both. Averages describe many rips — any single rip can land anywhere on the distribution.

Monte Carlo · 10,000 trials

Packs5

P(profit) 16.7%

Mean net −$147

Cost $1,250

Worst 5%: −$417
Bottom quartile: −$329
Median: −$238
Top quartile: −$88
Best 5%: +$581

Bootstrap resampling of 101 observed pulls with the 85% cash-out applied. Every pull is drawn with equal probability, so this is an all-time average: it will sit below the headline whenever the recent pool has run better than the lifetime one, and above it when the reverse is true. It also assumes the pool doesn't change as you rip — for top-heavy packs the downside is understated once the grail leaves. Estimates, not financial advice.

07 / Big hits

Biggest Hockey Ultra Pack pulls

2005 Upper Deck #443 Alexander Ovechkin (PSA 9 MINT)

$1,265PSA 9 MINT

2015 Upper Deck #201 Connor McDavid (PSA 9 MINT)

$1,192PSA 9 MINT

2019 SP Authentic #251 Igor Shesterkin - Autograph (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$587PSA 10 GEM MINT

2024 Upper Deck O-Pee-Chee Platinum #263 Macklin Celebrini - Pond Hockey (PSA 9 MINT)

$528PSA 9 MINT

1957 Topps #20 Glenn Hall (PSA 5 EX)

$511PSA 5 EX

1978 Topps #115 Mike Bossy (PSA 9 MINT)

$448PSA 9 MINT

2025 Upper Deck #136 Macklin Celebrini - Outburst (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$408PSA 10 GEM MINT

2016 O-Pee-Chee Platinum Rookie Autographs #RBA Mathew Barzal - Orange Rainbow (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$400PSA 10 GEM MINT

08 / EV history

Hockey Ultra Pack EV over time

Snapshot per scraper run. The dashed line is break-even — EV above it is +EV.

Calibrated EV currently sits at $260.92, above the $250 pack price, and has moved up 15.5% over the last 7 days.

0.883xCash-out ratio

09 / Quick answers

Hockey Ultra Pack — quick answers

Is Hockey Ultra Pack worth buying right now?: Our current verdict is CAUTION (score 49/100). Cash-out EV is $221 on a $250 pack (-11.7% net after the ~85% buyback) — the average rip loses money.
What is the EV of Hockey Ultra Pack?: The calibrated EV is $260.92 against a pack price of $250.00, with a typical (median) pull of $212.00 across 101 indexed pulls.
What are the real odds of beating the pack price on Hockey Ultra Pack?: 28.7% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price, and 5.0% returned at least double the price. These are observed odds reconstructed from real pulls, not the posted odds.
What is the typical pull from Hockey Ultra Pack?: The median pull is $212.00 — half of all indexed rips returned less than that. The single best recorded pull is $1,264.50.

10 / Pull log