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Hockey Pro Pack vs Hockey Ultra Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Hockey Pro Pack is currently the better value: a 0.878x cash-out ratio against Hockey Ultra Pack's 0.830x, across 601 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricHockey Pro PackHockey Ultra Pack
VerdictCAUTIONSKIP
Pack price$50$250
Calibrated EV$51.37$245.34
Cash-out ratio0.878x0.830x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)1.027x0.981x
Median pull$45.00$211.50
Hit rate33.1%26.7%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.47x0.63x
Pulls indexed51190

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Hockey Pro Pack: 1000 points from Aug 8 to Nov 3, starting at 0.79x and ending at 0.88x, up overall (+11.7%), ranging between 0.74x and 1.00x. Hockey Ultra Pack: 45 points from Nov 1 to Nov 3, starting at 0.77x and ending at 0.83x, up overall (+8.5%), ranging between 0.76x and 0.83x.

Hockey Pro PackHockey Ultra Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Hockey Pro Pack vs Hockey Ultra Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Hockey Pro Pack or Hockey Ultra Pack?
Hockey Pro Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.878x vs 0.830x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Hockey Pro Pack: 33.1% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Hockey Ultra Pack: 26.7%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Hockey Ultra Pack has the higher volatility (0.63x vs 0.47x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Hockey Pro Pack EV & verdict · Hockey Ultra Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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