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Hockey Pro Pack vs Hockey Ultra Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Hockey Ultra Pack is currently the better value: a 0.902x cash-out ratio against Hockey Pro Pack's 0.800x, across 86 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricHockey Pro PackHockey Ultra Pack
VerdictSKIPCAUTION
Pack price$50$250
Calibrated EV$47.11$266.49
Cash-out ratio0.800x0.902x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)0.942x1.066x
Median pull$44.35$227.05
Hit rate27.0%33.3%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.31x0.31x
Pulls indexed7412

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Hockey Pro Pack: 561 points from Jul 29 to Sep 18, starting at 0.64x and ending at 0.80x, up overall (+24.6%), ranging between 0.64x and 1.00x. Hockey Ultra Pack: 426 points from Aug 8 to Sep 18, starting at 0.67x and ending at 0.90x, up overall (+34.6%), ranging between 0.65x and 0.99x.

Hockey Pro PackHockey Ultra Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Hockey Pro Pack vs Hockey Ultra Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Hockey Pro Pack or Hockey Ultra Pack?
Hockey Ultra Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.902x vs 0.800x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Hockey Pro Pack: 27.0% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Hockey Ultra Pack: 33.3%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Hockey Pro Pack has the higher volatility (0.31x vs 0.31x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Hockey Pro Pack EV & verdict · Hockey Ultra Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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