Is Wildcard Starter Pack worth buying right now?

Our current verdict is NO DATA (score 0/100). No new pulls in 0 days — this pack normally yields one every 0.0 days, so it has gone quiet.

What is the EV of Wildcard Starter Pack?

The calibrated EV is $26.07 against a pack price of $25.00, with a typical (median) pull of $22.45 across 2,026 indexed pulls.

What are the real odds of beating the pack price on Wildcard Starter Pack?

25.8% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price, and 2.1% returned at least double the price. These are observed odds reconstructed from real pulls, not the posted odds.

What is the typical pull from Wildcard Starter Pack?

The median pull is $22.45 — half of all indexed rips returned less than that. The single best recorded pull is $100.00.

Baseball

Wildcard Starter Pack

Wildcard Starter Pack is a $25 Courtyard Baseball mystery pack with a calibrated expected value of $26.07, worth $22.52 at its observed 86% buyback — a cash-out ratio of 0.901x (1.043x at sticker FMV), so it currently returns less than its price on the average rip once the buyback haircut is taken. 25.8% of 2,026 indexed pulls met or beat the pack price.

Ranked #19 of 74 ranked packs by cash-out ratio, #4 of 13 Baseball packs.

Buy on Courtyard ↗Opens courtyard.io — PullValue is independent and earns nothing from purchases.

Cash-out ratio

0.901x

$22.52 back on a $25 pack, at this pack's observed 86% buyback. At sticker FMV it is 1.043x.

95% range $21.92–$23.12, clear of the $25 price.

-9.9% ROI

HIGH CONFIDENCE · 2,026 pulls (622 effective) · todaySIGNAL Weakening · 9.5 h ago

Calibrated EV: $26
Cash-out EV: $23
Pack price: $25
Typical pull: $22
Hit rate: 25.8%
Lifetime EV: $25
Pulls indexed: 2,026
Last pull: 9h ago

01 / Rip Advisor

Is Wildcard Starter Pack worth it right now?

score 0/100NO DATA

050100

No new pulls in 0 days — this pack normally yields one every 0.0 days, so it has gone quiet.

Downside · bottom-quartile rip

−$7

1 in 4 rips returns ≤ $18 cash — covering 71% of the price.

Upside · top-decile rip

+$6

1 in 10 rips returns ≥ $31 cash. Both figures use the observed buyback ratio.

Log this decision:

Verdict is computed transparently from indexed pulls: cash-out ROI, median pull, 7-day trend, hit rate, and sample size. Redemption shipping (typically $16+) is not included — cards worth less than a few times the shipping cost are usually better instant-sold than shipped. Not financial advice.

02 / Pool signals

What's happening in the Wildcard Starter Pack pool

Lifecycle stage, health, and chase removals — read from indexed pulls, never guessed.

Recent pulls are running above the lifetime average (EV +2% over 7 days) — the pool is trending up without a restock-sized jump.

IMPROVING

Recent pulls are running above the lifetime average (EV +2% over 7 days) — the pool is trending up without a restock-sized jump.

Pro adds the Pool Health score and chase-removal impact.

Not observable: packs remaining, value remaining, and which chases are still in the pool — Courtyard publishes a pull feed, not inventory. We label those unavailable rather than estimate them. Everything above is computed from indexed pulls and EV snapshots; thin or stale data pulls the score toward neutral. Formula

Chase tracker

chase tier ≥ $125 · confidence 100%

No chase-tier pulls (≥ $125) observed in the last 30 days.

Removals are facts; what's left is not. Each row is a unique graded card observed leaving this pack, so it is no longer in the pool — though a card can return after a buyback, which is why re-listings are flagged. We show no “chance it remains”: Courtyard publishes pulls, not inventory, so that number would be guesswork. Formula

Signal lifetime

SIGNAL Weakening · 9.5 h ago

Pull flow has slowed past the usual gap of 34 min, so this read is ageing faster than the pack is producing evidence. At the observed pull rate, half the evidence behind this read is replaced in about 48 days.

Newest pull: 9.5 h; observed
Pull rate: 42.5/day; observed
Pulls, 7d: 352; observed
Half-life: Pro

Aged, not predicted. Half-life counts how fast new evidence arrives, measured from real pull timestamps — it is not a forecast of where EV is heading. We publish no EV-drift half-life because our snapshot history is still too short for a regression to mean anything. The seeded placeholder points this note used to warn about have been flagged in the database and excluded from every chart, trend and score, so what you see plotted is observed data. Note the headline EV is decay-weighted, so it reacts to new pulls sooner than this whole-sample horizon implies. Methodology

03 / Contents

What has come out of Wildcard Starter Pack

The eras, sets and cards this pack has actually produced. A record of past pulls — Courtyard publishes no inventory, so this is not a statement about what is left.

By era

Cards seen range from 1952 to 2026.

Current (2020+)62%$27 avg
Vintage (pre-2000)23%$23 avg
Modern (2010-2019)11%$24 avg
Year not stated4%$28 avg
Retro (2000-2009)1%$23 avg

Most common sets

Sets these pulls came from.

Topps17%$22 avg
Pokémon M2a-Mega Dream EX3%$32 avg
Topps Update3%$23 avg
Bowman Draft3%$23 avg
Topps Chrome2%$21 avg
Topps Chrome Update2%$22 avg
Topps Now2%$26 avg
Upper Deck2%$25 avg

Cards seen most often

Named on 96% of readable pulls. The rest do not print a card number, and without one the card cannot be told apart from the set name.

Shohei Ohtani4%$24 avg
Paul Skenes3%$22 avg
Aaron Judge2%$22 avg
Nolan Ryan2%$20 avg
Monkey D. Luffy2%$35 avg
Roman Anthony1%$23 avg
Jackson Holliday1%$20 avg
Juan Soto1%$20 avg

What comes out

Not every pull is a graded single.

Graded cards96%$26 avg
Sealed booster packs2%$23 avg
Graded comics1%$24 avg
Graded coins<1%$93 avg

Built from the 1000 indexed pulls of this pack so far — a record of what has come out, not a promise about what is left.

04 / Floor safety

Wildcard Starter Pack floor safety & buyback reality

The two ways average EV lies to you — how top-heavy the pack is, and what FMV actually converts to in cash — then which exit pays most.

In Wildcard Starter Pack, the top 2% of pulls account for 5% of all pulled value — low dilution. Value is spread fairly evenly across the pool, so the average is close to what a typical rip returns. The observed instant-offer ratio is 87% of FMV, which is the cash number every verdict on this page already uses.

Floor safety

low dilution

5% of everything this pack has paid out came from just the top 2% of pulls. Value is spread broadly across pulls, so the average sits closer to the typical rip here than it does on a top-heavy pack. It still sits above the median — check both.

Buyback reality

86.4% of FMV observed

Across 1,952 indexed pulls that carry a recorded bid, a $100 FMV pull cashes out around $86 if you instant-sell — better than the platform's 84.6%. This is the figure every verdict on the site multiplies by.

Holding, listing, or physically redeeming can beat the instant offer — but redemption shipping (typically $16+) eats small wins.

Net exit value

965 paired pulls · 97% bid coverage · confidence 100%

Instant-selling the average (mean) pull here returns $22.11 — $3.59 below sticker FMV (14.0% haircut). That figure is the average of bids we actually recorded, not the platform rate applied blind.

Pro compares all three exits side by side, with the redemption breakeven and the value-by-value haircut curve for this pack.

Bids are recorded, resale is not. Instant-buyback figures are real offers captured at index time and can move. Redemption shipping starts near $16 in the US, is higher internationally, and is charged per shipment — batching pulls lowers it. We publish no resale estimate, liquidity score, or time-to-sell, because no such data is available to us. How buyback works

05 / Observed odds

Wildcard Starter Pack odds — observed, not posted

Reconstructed from real pulls, so it shows what has actually been coming out — posted odds can't do that. It is a record of pulls, not a count of what is left.

Across 2,026 indexed pulls, 25.8% returned at least the $25 pack price and 2.1% returned double or more; the single best recorded pull is $100.

Under $130.0%· stable
$13 – $2572.0%▼ 13.1pt · 48h
$25 – $50 · beats the pack25.9%▲ 11.6pt · 48h
$50 – $125 · big hit2.1%▲ 1.5pt · 48h
$125+ · chase0.0%· stable

Observed across 1,000 indexed pulls — what actually came out of this pack, independent of the posted odds. The 48h column shows tier drift: a falling green tier means fewer of the good cards have come out lately — which may mean they are running out, or may just be a quiet 48 hours.

06 / Simulator

Wildcard Starter Pack rip simulator

What ripping 1–20 packs looks like, using this pack's actual pull distribution.

Packs to rip5Hoping for

Averaged over

$26.07 per pull

Cost: $125
Expected cash-out: $113
Expected net: -$12
≥1 hit chance: 83.5%

Recent pool: pulls are weighted so newer ones count for more, the same basis as this pack’s headline, verdict and the budget tool. The 400 pulls behind the hit chance are unweighted either way, and the 86% buyback is applied to both. These two disagree here: -$2.48 per pack recent-weighted against -$3.24 all-time. The pool has moved, so which number you want depends on whether you think the recent run continues. Averages describe many rips — any single rip can land anywhere on the distribution.

Monte Carlo · 10,000 trials

Packs5

P(profit) 16.8%

Mean net −$14

Cost $125

Worst 5%: −$35
Bottom quartile: −$27
Median: −$18
Top quartile: −$6
Best 5%: +$19

Bootstrap resampling of 1,000 observed pulls with the 86% cash-out applied. Every pull is drawn with equal probability, so this is an all-time average: it will sit below the headline whenever the recent pool has run better than the lifetime one, and above it when the reverse is true. It also assumes the pool doesn't change as you rip — for top-heavy packs the downside is understated once the grail leaves. Estimates, not financial advice.

07 / Big hits

Biggest Wildcard Starter Pack pulls

c.mid-1st Century BC GAUL, SEQUANI AR Quinarius obv Roma. rv horse. NGC VF

$100NGC VF

2020 Vivid Voltage #050/185 Raikou - Amazing Rare Holo (CGC 10 PRISTINE)

$89CGC 10 PRISTINE

2023 Crown Zenith #GG45/GG70 Deoxys VMAX - Galarian Gallery Holo (CGC 10 GEM MINT)

$88CGC 10 GEM MINT

2024 Pokémon Sv8a-Terastal Fest EX #224 Eevee EX - Holo Special Art Rare (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$87PSA 10 GEM MINT

House of Constantine ROMAN EMPIRE AE3 (BI Nummus) issue as Caesar NGC XF

$85NGC XF

2025 One Piece Japanese PRB02-Premium Booster -One Piece Card the Best- Vol.2 Don!! Card - Usopp-Gold (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$79PSA 10 GEM MINT

2025 Pokémon Simplified CBB3 C-Gem Pack Vol 3 #07 Mimikyu (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$79PSA 10 GEM MINT

2023 Pokémon SV-P Promo #120 Pikachu - Gym Event Campaign (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$72PSA 10 GEM MINT

08 / EV history

Wildcard Starter Pack EV over time

Snapshot per scraper run. The dashed line is break-even — EV above it is +EV.

Calibrated EV currently sits at $26.07, above the $25 pack price, and has moved up 2.1% over the last 7 days.

0.901xCash-out ratio

09 / Quick answers

Wildcard Starter Pack — quick answers

Is Wildcard Starter Pack worth buying right now?: Our current verdict is NO DATA (score 0/100). No new pulls in 0 days — this pack normally yields one every 0.0 days, so it has gone quiet.
What is the EV of Wildcard Starter Pack?: The calibrated EV is $26.07 against a pack price of $25.00, with a typical (median) pull of $22.45 across 2,026 indexed pulls.
What are the real odds of beating the pack price on Wildcard Starter Pack?: 25.8% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price, and 2.1% returned at least double the price. These are observed odds reconstructed from real pulls, not the posted odds.
What is the typical pull from Wildcard Starter Pack?: The median pull is $22.45 — half of all indexed rips returned less than that. The single best recorded pull is $100.00.

10 / Pull log