Is Baseball Mythic Pack worth buying right now?

Our current verdict is CAUTION (score 45/100). Early read: only 5 pulls indexed — this is a lean, not a settled verdict. The numbers can swing hard until the sample reaches 30.

What is the EV of Baseball Mythic Pack?

The calibrated EV is $5,460.18 against a pack price of $5,000.00, with a typical (median) pull of $4,464.00 across 5 indexed pulls.

What are the real odds of beating the pack price on Baseball Mythic Pack?

40.0% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. These are observed odds reconstructed from real pulls, not the posted odds.

What is the typical pull from Baseball Mythic Pack?

The median pull is $4,464.00 — half of all indexed rips returned less than that. The single best recorded pull is $8,269.70.

Baseball

Baseball Mythic Pack

Baseball Mythic Pack is a $5,000 Courtyard Baseball mystery pack with a calibrated expected value of $5,460.18, worth $4,619.31 at its observed 85% buyback — a cash-out ratio of 0.924x (1.092x at sticker FMV), so it currently returns less than its price on the average rip once the buyback haircut is taken. 40.0% of 5 indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Early Rip Advisor lean (small sample): CAUTION (45/100).

Ranked #22 of 129 tracked packs by cash-out ratio, #5 of 17 Baseball packs.

This pack is no longer sold on Courtyard — the numbers below are its historical record.

Cash-out ratio

0.924x

$4,619.31 back on a $5,000 pack, at this pack's observed 85% buyback. At sticker FMV it is 1.092x.

CAUTION-7.6% ROI

LOW CONFIDENCE· 5 pulls · 3dSIGNAL Invalidated · 3 days ago

Calibrated EV: $5,460
Cash-out EV: $4,619
Pack price: $5,000
Typical pull: $4,464
Hit rate: 40.0%
Lifetime EV: $5,460
Pulls indexed: 5
Last pull: 3d ago

01 / Rip Advisor

Is Baseball Mythic Pack worth it right now?

Early readscore 45/100CAUTION

050100

Early read: only 5 pulls indexed — this is a lean, not a settled verdict. The numbers can swing hard until the sample reaches 30.
Cash-out EV is $4,619 on a $5,000 pack (-7.6% net after the ~85% buyback) — the average rip loses money.
The typical pull (median) is $4,464 — most rips return less than the pack price; the EV is carried by rare chase cards.
EV has been stable over the last 7 days.
Low volatility: steady pack. Fewer duds, but also fewer moonshots.
40.0% of pulls meet or beat the pack price, across 5 indexed pulls.

Log this decision:

Verdict is computed transparently from indexed pulls: cash-out ROI, median pull, 7-day trend, hit rate, and sample size. Redemption shipping (typically $16+) is not included — cards worth less than a few times the shipping cost are usually better instant-sold than shipped. Not financial advice.

02 / Pool signals

What's happening in the Baseball Mythic Pack pool

Lifecycle stage, health, and chase removals — read from indexed pulls, never guessed.

First indexed pull 3 day(s) ago — the pool is new, so early numbers move fast and mean little yet.

NEWLY LAUNCHED

First indexed pull 3 day(s) ago — the pool is new, so early numbers move fast and mean little yet.

Pro adds the Pool Health score and chase-removal impact.

Not observable: packs remaining, value remaining, and which chases are still in the pool — Courtyard publishes a pull feed, not inventory. We label those unavailable rather than estimate them. Everything above is computed from indexed pulls and EV snapshots; thin or stale data pulls the score toward neutral. Formula

Chase tracker

Needs 30+ indexed pulls to define a chase tier for this pack — 5 so far.

Signal lifetime

SIGNAL Invalidated · 3 days ago

Re-check before acting: the price moved after the newest pull we indexed.

The pack price changed after the most recent pull, so every EV-vs-price call here predates the current ticket.

Newest pull: 3 days; observed
Pull rate: 1.5/day; observed
Pulls, 7d: 5; observed
Half-life: Pro

Aged, not predicted. Half-life counts how fast new evidence arrives, measured from real pull timestamps — it is not a forecast of where EV is heading. We publish no EV-drift half-life because our snapshot history is too short and its early stretch is seeded placeholder data; a number regressed from that would describe our seed script, not the market. Note the headline EV is decay-weighted, so it reacts to new pulls sooner than this whole-sample horizon implies. Methodology

03 / Contents

What has come out of Baseball Mythic Pack

The eras, sets and cards this pack has actually produced. A record of past pulls — Courtyard publishes no inventory, so this is not a statement about what is left.

Only 5 pulls indexed. Below 25 the proportions below move a lot on a single pull — read them as examples of what has appeared, not as a profile of the pack.

By era

Cards seen range from 1955 to 2024.

Current (2020+)40%$4,341 avg
Modern (2010-2019)40%$7,407 avg
Vintage (pre-2000)20%$3,805 avg

Most common sets

Sets these pulls came from.

Bowman Chrome20%$6,544 avg
Bowman Draft Chrome Draft Picks Autographs20%$4,464 avg
Panini Three and Two Downtown20%$4,218 avg
Topps20%$3,805 avg
Topps Chrome20%$8,270 avg

Cards seen most often

Named on every readable pull.

Shohei Ohtani40%$7,407 avg
Paul Skenes20%$4,218 avg
Pete Crow-Armstrong20%$4,464 avg
Sandy Koufax20%$3,805 avg

Built from the 5 indexed pulls of this pack so far — a record of what has come out, not a promise about what is left.

07 / Big hits

Biggest Baseball Mythic Pack pulls

$2018 Topps Chrome #150 Shohei Ohtani - Prism Refractor (PSA 10 GEM MINT)$

2018 Topps Chrome #150 Shohei Ohtani - Prism Refractor (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$8,270PSA 10 GEM MINT

2018 Bowman Chrome #1 Shohei Ohtani (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$6,544PSA 10 GEM MINT

$2020 Bowman Draft Chrome Draft Picks Autographs #CDAPC Pete Crow-Armstrong - Black Refractor (PSA 10 GEM MINT)$

2020 Bowman Draft Chrome Draft Picks Autographs #CDAPC Pete Crow-Armstrong - Black Refractor (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$4,464PSA 10 GEM MINT

2024 Panini Three and Two Downtown #4 Paul Skenes (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$4,218PSA 10 GEM MINT

1955 Topps #123 Sandy Koufax (PSA 5 EX)

$3,805PSA 5 EX

08 / EV history

Baseball Mythic Pack EV over time

Snapshot per scraper run. The dashed line is break-even — EV above it is +EV.

Calibrated EV currently sits at $5,460.18, above the $5,000 pack price, and has moved up 0.0% over the last 7 days.

1.092xEV ratio

09 / Quick answers

Baseball Mythic Pack — quick answers

Is Baseball Mythic Pack worth buying right now?: Our current verdict is CAUTION (score 45/100). Early read: only 5 pulls indexed — this is a lean, not a settled verdict. The numbers can swing hard until the sample reaches 30.
What is the EV of Baseball Mythic Pack?: The calibrated EV is $5,460.18 against a pack price of $5,000.00, with a typical (median) pull of $4,464.00 across 5 indexed pulls.
What are the real odds of beating the pack price on Baseball Mythic Pack?: 40.0% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. These are observed odds reconstructed from real pulls, not the posted odds.
What is the typical pull from Baseball Mythic Pack?: The median pull is $4,464.00 — half of all indexed rips returned less than that. The single best recorded pull is $8,269.70.

10 / Pull log

Latest Baseball Mythic Pack pulls

Compare Baseball Mythic Pack with other Baseball packs

Same math, same methodology — cash-out ratios after each pack's own buyback, so the comparison is apples to apples.

Understand these numbers

Every figure on this page — EV, EV ratio, hit rate, dilution — is defined once and computed the same way for every pack.