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Sports Pro Pack vs Wildcard Starter Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Wildcard Starter Pack is currently the better value: a 1.070x EV ratio against Sports Pro Pack's 1.053x, across 215 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricSports Pro PackWildcard Starter Pack
VerdictCAUTIONCAUTION
Pack price$50$25
Calibrated EV$52.64$26.76
EV ratio1.053x1.070x
Cash-out EV ratio0.980x0.999x
Median pull$45.40$22.40
Hit rate32.6%27.7%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.44x0.38x
Pulls indexed49166

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

EV ratio over time, two packs compared. Sports Pro Pack: 269 points from Jul 3 to Aug 14, starting at 0.97x and ending at 1.05x, up overall (+9.0%), ranging between 0.71x and 1.21x. Wildcard Starter Pack: 269 points from Jul 3 to Aug 14, starting at 0.90x and ending at 1.07x, up overall (+18.5%), ranging between 0.78x and 1.17x.

Sports Pro PackWildcard Starter Pack

Ratios computed against each pack's current price.

03 / Quick answers

Sports Pro Pack vs Wildcard Starter Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Sports Pro Pack or Wildcard Starter Pack?
Wildcard Starter Pack currently offers the better EV ratio (1.070x vs 1.053x). Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Sports Pro Pack: 32.6% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Wildcard Starter Pack: 27.7%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Sports Pro Pack has the higher volatility (0.44x vs 0.38x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Sports Pro Pack EV & verdict · Wildcard Starter Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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