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Sports Pro Pack vs Wildcard Starter Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Sports Pro Pack is currently the better value: a 0.963x cash-out ratio against Wildcard Starter Pack's 0.855x, across 1,144 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricSports Pro PackWildcard Starter Pack
VerdictCAUTIONCAUTION
Pack price$50$25
Calibrated EV$55.93$24.58
Cash-out ratio0.963x0.855x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)1.119x0.983x
Median pull$45.10$21.90
Hit rate33.3%23.6%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.54x0.36x
Pulls indexed285859

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Sports Pro Pack: 684 points from Jul 12 to Sep 30, starting at 0.73x and ending at 0.96x, up overall (+31.6%), ranging between 0.61x and 1.04x. Wildcard Starter Pack: 684 points from Jul 12 to Sep 30, starting at 0.70x and ending at 0.85x, up overall (+21.4%), ranging between 0.69x and 1.02x.

Sports Pro PackWildcard Starter Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Sports Pro Pack vs Wildcard Starter Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Sports Pro Pack or Wildcard Starter Pack?
Sports Pro Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.963x vs 0.855x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Sports Pro Pack: 33.3% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Wildcard Starter Pack: 23.6%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Sports Pro Pack has the higher volatility (0.54x vs 0.36x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Sports Pro Pack EV & verdict · Wildcard Starter Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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