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Baseball Pro Pack vs Wildcard Starter Pack: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Baseball Pro Pack is currently the better value: a 0.848x cash-out ratio against Wildcard Starter Pack's 0.836x, across 1,107 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricBaseball Pro PackWildcard Starter Pack
VerdictSKIPSKIP
Pack price$50$25
Calibrated EV$49.60$23.97
Cash-out ratio0.848x0.836x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)0.992x0.959x
Median pull$43.40$21.90
Hit rate27.0%23.3%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.50x0.36x
Pulls indexed333774

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Baseball Pro Pack: 661 points from Jul 12 to Sep 29, starting at 1.70x and ending at 0.85x, down overall (-50.0%), ranging between 0.73x and 1.70x. Wildcard Starter Pack: 661 points from Jul 12 to Sep 29, starting at 0.71x and ending at 0.84x, up overall (+18.4%), ranging between 0.69x and 1.02x.

Baseball Pro PackWildcard Starter Pack

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Baseball Pro Pack vs Wildcard Starter Pack — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Baseball Pro Pack or Wildcard Starter Pack?
Baseball Pro Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.848x vs 0.836x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Baseball Pro Pack: 27.0% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Wildcard Starter Pack: 23.3%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Baseball Pro Pack has the higher volatility (0.50x vs 0.36x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Baseball Pro Pack EV & verdict · Wildcard Starter Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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