$500 U.S. Coins Pack

• Early read: only 8 pulls indexed — this is a lean, not a settled verdict. The numbers can swing hard until the sample reaches 30.
• Cash-out EV is $453 on a $500 pack (-9.3% net after the ~85% buyback) — the average rip loses money.
• Cash-out EV is $453.34 against a $500.00 price, and that gap is smaller than the uncertainty around it — the 95% range is $307.76 to $598.92. On this sample the pack cannot be told apart from break-even in either direction.
• The typical pull (median) is $438 — most rips return less than the pack price; the EV is carried by rare chase cards.
• Recent pulls are averaging 7.1% below where they were 7 days ago. That is what the last week returned, not a reading of what is left — Courtyard publishes no inventory. A drop this size is consistent with the better cards having been pulled, and also with an unlucky week.
• Low volatility: steady pack. Fewer duds, but also fewer moonshots.
• Calibrated EV (recent pulls weighted) is $536 vs $503 lifetime — the pool has improved recently.
• 25.0% of pulls meet or beat the pack price, across 8 indexed pulls.

Verdict is computed transparently from indexed pulls: cash-out ROI, median pull, 7-day trend, hit rate, and sample size. Redemption shipping (typically $16+) is not included — cards worth less than a few times the shipping cost are usually better instant-sold than shipped. Not financial advice.