$1500 U.S. Coins Pack vs $500 U.S. Coins Pack: which pack is the better rip?
On live data, $500 U.S. Coins Pack is currently the better value: a 0.907x cash-out ratio against $1500 U.S. Coins Pack's 0.724x, across 14 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.
| Metric | $1500 U.S. Coins Pack | $500 U.S. Coins Pack |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | SKIP | SKIP |
| Pack price | $1500 | $500 |
| Calibrated EV | $1284.01 | $535.86 |
| Cash-out ratio | 0.724x | 0.907x |
| EV ratio (at sticker FMV) | 0.856x | 1.072x |
| Median pull | $1192.20 | $437.50 |
| Hit rate | 0.0% | 25.0% |
| Volatility (stddev/EV) | 0.08x | 0.32x |
| Pulls indexed | 6 | 8 |
02 / EV history
EV ratio over time, overlaid
Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. $1500 U.S. Coins Pack: 488 points from Aug 4 to Sep 18, starting at 0.66x and ending at 0.72x, up overall (+9.9%), ranging between 0.66x and 0.75x. $500 U.S. Coins Pack: 332 points from Aug 17 to Sep 18, starting at 0.78x and ending at 0.91x, up overall (+16.6%), ranging between 0.72x and 0.98x.
Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.
03 / Quick answers
$1500 U.S. Coins Pack vs $500 U.S. Coins Pack — quick answers
- Which is better value right now: $1500 U.S. Coins Pack or $500 U.S. Coins Pack?
- $500 U.S. Coins Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.907x vs 0.724x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
- Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
- $1500 U.S. Coins Pack: 0.0% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. $500 U.S. Coins Pack: 25.0%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
- Which pack is riskier?
- $500 U.S. Coins Pack has the higher volatility (0.32x vs 0.08x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.
Full pages: $1500 U.S. Coins Pack EV & verdict · $500 U.S. Coins Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies