Is $1500 U.S. Coins Pack worth buying right now?

Our current verdict is CAUTION (score 60/100). Early read: only 15 pulls indexed — this is a lean, not a settled verdict. The numbers can swing hard until the sample reaches 30.

What is the EV of $1500 U.S. Coins Pack?

The calibrated EV is $1,768.87 against a pack price of $1,500.00, with a typical (median) pull of $1,210.28 across 15 indexed pulls.

What are the real odds of beating the pack price on $1500 U.S. Coins Pack?

13.3% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. These are observed odds reconstructed from real pulls, not the posted odds.

What is the typical pull from $1500 U.S. Coins Pack?

The median pull is $1,210.28 — half of all indexed rips returned less than that. The single best recorded pull is $2,380.75.

$1500 U.S. Coins Pack

$1500 U.S. Coins Pack is a $1,500 Courtyard US mystery pack with a calibrated expected value of $1,768.87, worth $1,496.46 at its observed 85% buyback — a cash-out ratio of 0.998x (1.179x at sticker FMV), so it currently returns less than its price on the average rip once the buyback haircut is taken. 13.3% of 15 indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Early Rip Advisor lean (small sample): CAUTION (60/100).

Ranked #3 of 76 ranked packs by cash-out ratio, #1 of 3 US packs.

This pack is no longer sold on Courtyard — the numbers below are its historical record.

Cash-out ratio

0.998x

$1,496.46 back on a $1,500 pack, at this pack's observed 85% buyback. At sticker FMV it is 1.179x.

95% range $1,117.63–$1,875.30 — that still includes the $1,500 price, so this edge is inside the noise of the sample.

CAUTION-0.2% ROI

INSUFFICIENT DATA · 15 pulls · 7dSIGNAL Weakening · 7 days ago

Calibrated EV: $1,769
Cash-out EV: $1,496
Pack price: $1,500
Typical pull: $1,210
Hit rate: 13.3%
Lifetime EV: $1,331
Pulls indexed: 15
Last pull: 7d ago

01 / Rip Advisor

Is $1500 U.S. Coins Pack worth it right now?

Early readscore 60/100CAUTION

050100

Early read: only 15 pulls indexed — this is a lean, not a settled verdict. The numbers can swing hard until the sample reaches 30.
Cash-out EV is $1,496 on a $1,500 pack (-0.2% net after the ~85% buyback) — the average rip loses money.
Cash-out EV is $1,496.46 against a $1,500.00 price, and that gap is smaller than the uncertainty around it — the 95% range is $1,117.63 to $1,875.30. On this sample the pack cannot be told apart from break-even in either direction.
The typical pull (median) is $1,210 — most rips return less than the pack price; the EV is carried by rare chase cards.
What recent pulls return has been stable over the last 7 days.
Low volatility: steady pack. Fewer duds, but also fewer moonshots.
Calibrated EV (recent pulls weighted) is $1,769 vs $1,331 lifetime — the pool has improved recently.
13.3% of pulls meet or beat the pack price, across 15 indexed pulls.

Log this decision:

Verdict is computed transparently from indexed pulls: cash-out ROI, median pull, 7-day trend, hit rate, and sample size. Redemption shipping (typically $16+) is not included — cards worth less than a few times the shipping cost are usually better instant-sold than shipped. Not financial advice.

02 / Pool signals

What's happening in the $1500 U.S. Coins Pack pool

Lifecycle stage, health, and chase removals — read from indexed pulls, never guessed.

15 pulls indexed — drift math needs 30+ to mean anything. Early read only.

BUILDING SAMPLE

15 pulls indexed — drift math needs 30+ to mean anything. Early read only.

Pro adds the Pool Health score and chase-removal impact.

Not observable: packs remaining, value remaining, and which chases are still in the pool — Courtyard publishes a pull feed, not inventory. We label those unavailable rather than estimate them. Everything above is computed from indexed pulls and EV snapshots; thin or stale data pulls the score toward neutral. Formula

Chase tracker

Needs 30+ indexed pulls to define a chase tier for this pack — 15 so far.

Signal lifetime

SIGNAL Weakening · 7 days ago

Pull flow has slowed past the usual gap of 3 days, so this read is ageing faster than the pack is producing evidence.

Newest pull: 7 days; observed
Pull rate: 0.3/day; observed
Pulls, 7d: 0; observed
Half-life: Pro

Aged, not predicted. Half-life counts how fast new evidence arrives, measured from real pull timestamps — it is not a forecast of where EV is heading. We publish no EV-drift half-life because our snapshot history is still too short for a regression to mean anything. The seeded placeholder points this note used to warn about have been flagged in the database and excluded from every chart, trend and score, so what you see plotted is observed data. Note the headline EV is decay-weighted, so it reacts to new pulls sooner than this whole-sample horizon implies. Methodology

03 / Contents

What has come out of $1500 U.S. Coins Pack

The eras, sets and cards this pack has actually produced. A record of past pulls — Courtyard publishes no inventory, so this is not a statement about what is left.

Only 15 pulls indexed. Below 25 the proportions below move a lot on a single pull — read them as examples of what has appeared, not as a profile of the pack.

By era

Cards seen range from 1873 to 2001.

Vintage (pre-2000)93%$1,342 avg
Retro (2000-2009)7%$1,174 avg

Most common sets

Sets these pulls came from.

$5 Gold40%$1,288 avg
One Dollar20%$1,208 avg
$10 Gold7%$2,381 avg
$2.50 Gold Closed 37%$1,108 avg
50 Cents7%$1,175 avg
50 Dollars Platinum Eagle7%$1,174 avg
Half dollar Norfolk7%$1,700 avg
One Dollar Peace7%$1,075 avg

Built from the 15 indexed pulls of this pack so far — a record of what has come out, not a promise about what is left.

07 / Big hits

Biggest $1500 U.S. Coins Pack pulls

1901 $10 Gold PCGS MS63

$2,381PCGS MS63

1936 Half dollar Norfolk PCGS MS68

$1,700PCGS MS68

1898 $5 Gold PCGS MS63

$1,403PCGS MS63

1885-CC One Dollar PCGS MS65

$1,400PCGS MS65

1900 $5 Gold PCGS MS63

$1,343PCGS MS63

1893-S $5 Gold NGC MS61

$1,308NGC MS61

1909-D $5 Gold NGC MS61

$1,299NGC MS61

1913 $5 Gold NGC MS61

$1,210NGC MS61

08 / EV history

$1500 U.S. Coins Pack EV over time

Snapshot per scraper run. The dashed line is break-even — EV above it is +EV.

Calibrated EV currently sits at $1,768.87, above the $1,500 pack price, and has moved up 0.0% over the last 7 days.

0.998xCash-out ratio

09 / Quick answers

$1500 U.S. Coins Pack — quick answers

Is $1500 U.S. Coins Pack worth buying right now?: Our current verdict is CAUTION (score 60/100). Early read: only 15 pulls indexed — this is a lean, not a settled verdict. The numbers can swing hard until the sample reaches 30.
What is the EV of $1500 U.S. Coins Pack?: The calibrated EV is $1,768.87 against a pack price of $1,500.00, with a typical (median) pull of $1,210.28 across 15 indexed pulls.
What are the real odds of beating the pack price on $1500 U.S. Coins Pack?: 13.3% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. These are observed odds reconstructed from real pulls, not the posted odds.
What is the typical pull from $1500 U.S. Coins Pack?: The median pull is $1,210.28 — half of all indexed rips returned less than that. The single best recorded pull is $2,380.75.

10 / Pull log

Latest $1500 U.S. Coins Pack pulls

Compare $1500 U.S. Coins Pack with other US packs

Same math, same methodology — cash-out ratios after each pack's own buyback, so the comparison is apples to apples.

Understand these numbers

Every figure on this page — EV, EV ratio, hit rate, dilution — is defined once and computed the same way for every pack.