$150 U.S. Coins Pack vs $500 U.S. Coins Pack: which pack is the better rip?
On live data, $150 U.S. Coins Pack is currently the better value: a 0.835x cash-out ratio against $500 U.S. Coins Pack's 0.827x, across 381 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.
| Metric | $150 U.S. Coins Pack | $500 U.S. Coins Pack |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | SKIP | SKIP |
| Pack price | $150 | $500 |
| Calibrated EV | $148.08 | $488.84 |
| Cash-out ratio | 0.835x | 0.827x |
| EV ratio (at sticker FMV) | 0.987x | 0.978x |
| Median pull | $118.77 | $432.50 |
| Hit rate | 35.5% | 18.9% |
| Volatility (stddev/EV) | 0.63x | 0.31x |
| Pulls indexed | 344 | 37 |
02 / EV history
EV ratio over time, overlaid
Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. $150 U.S. Coins Pack: 1000 points from Aug 7 to Nov 3, starting at 0.66x and ending at 0.83x, up overall (+26.3%), ranging between 0.64x and 1.01x. $500 U.S. Coins Pack: 894 points from Aug 17 to Nov 3, starting at 0.78x and ending at 0.83x, up overall (+6.3%), ranging between 0.71x and 0.98x.
Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.
03 / Quick answers
$150 U.S. Coins Pack vs $500 U.S. Coins Pack — quick answers
- Which is better value right now: $150 U.S. Coins Pack or $500 U.S. Coins Pack?
- $150 U.S. Coins Pack currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.835x vs 0.827x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
- Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
- $150 U.S. Coins Pack: 35.5% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. $500 U.S. Coins Pack: 18.9%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
- Which pack is riskier?
- $150 U.S. Coins Pack has the higher volatility (0.63x vs 0.31x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.
Full pages: $150 U.S. Coins Pack EV & verdict · $500 U.S. Coins Pack EV & verdict · Why average EV lies