Is 30th Anniversary - Day 1: Red worth buying right now?

Our current verdict is NO DATA (score 0/100). No pack price on record, so no net or ROI figure can be computed.

What is the EV of 30th Anniversary - Day 1: Red?

The calibrated EV is $18.95 against a pack price of not yet set, with a typical (median) pull of $15.20 across 4,901 indexed pulls.

What are the real odds of beating the pack price on 30th Anniversary - Day 1: Red?

We cannot say yet. 30th Anniversary - Day 1: Red has no pack price on record, and the odds of beating a price are undefined until there is one to beat. The 4,901 indexed pulls are still shown below as a record of what has come out.

What is the typical pull from 30th Anniversary - Day 1: Red?

The median pull is $15.20 — half of all indexed rips returned less than that. The single best recorded pull is $155.30.

Pokémon

30th Anniversary - Day 1: Red

30th Anniversary - Day 1: Red is a Courtyard Pokémon mystery pack with a calibrated expected value of $18.95 and a typical (median) pull of $15.20 across 4,901 indexed pulls. Its pack price is not yet confirmed, so the EV ratio, hit rate, and Rip Advisor verdict are pending.

Calibrated EV

$19

— ROI

LOW CONFIDENCE · 4,901 pulls · 2dSIGNAL Stale · 2 days ago

Calibrated EV: $19
Cash-out EV: $16
Pack price: Unknown
Typical pull: $15
Hit rate: —
Lifetime EV: $19
Pulls indexed: 4,901
Last pull: 2d ago

01 / Rip Advisor

Is 30th Anniversary - Day 1: Red worth it right now?

score 0/100NO DATA

050100

No pack price on record, so no net or ROI figure can be computed.

Log this decision:

Verdict is computed transparently from indexed pulls: cash-out ROI, median pull, 7-day trend, hit rate, and sample size. Redemption shipping (typically $16+) is not included — cards worth less than a few times the shipping cost are usually better instant-sold than shipped. Not financial advice.

02 / Pool signals

What's happening in the 30th Anniversary - Day 1: Red pool

Lifecycle stage, health, and chase removals — read from indexed pulls, never guessed.

No price set — pool economics can’t be computed.

NO DATA

No price set — pool economics can’t be computed.

Pro adds the Pool Health score and chase-removal impact.

Not observable: packs remaining, value remaining, and which chases are still in the pool — Courtyard publishes a pull feed, not inventory. We label those unavailable rather than estimate them. Everything above is computed from indexed pulls and EV snapshots; thin or stale data pulls the score toward neutral. Formula

Chase tracker

No pack price set, so a chase tier cannot be anchored.

Signal lifetime

SIGNAL Stale · 2 days ago

No new pulls for well past this pack's usual gap (typically 4 min). It may be paused, sold out, or no longer indexed. At the observed pull rate, half the evidence behind this read is replaced in about 14 days.

Newest pull: 2 days; observed
Pull rate: 357.1/day; observed
Pulls, 7d: 1000; observed
Half-life: Pro

Aged, not predicted. Half-life counts how fast new evidence arrives, measured from real pull timestamps — it is not a forecast of where EV is heading. We publish no EV-drift half-life because our snapshot history is still too short for a regression to mean anything. The seeded placeholder points this note used to warn about have been flagged in the database and excluded from every chart, trend and score, so what you see plotted is observed data. Note the headline EV is decay-weighted, so it reacts to new pulls sooner than this whole-sample horizon implies. Methodology

03 / Contents

What has come out of 30th Anniversary - Day 1: Red

The eras, sets and cards this pack has actually produced. A record of past pulls — Courtyard publishes no inventory, so this is not a statement about what is left.

By era

Cards seen range from 1996 to 2026.

Current (2020+)77%$18 avg
Modern (2010-2019)9%$21 avg
Vintage (pre-2000)7%$21 avg
Retro (2000-2009)6%$22 avg
Year not stated<1%$14 avg

Most common sets

Sets these pulls came from.

Base Set2%$16 avg
Pokémon Card 1512%$22 avg
Destined Rivals - DRI EN2%$14 avg
VSTAR Universe2%$19 avg
Black Star Promos - Sword & Shield2%$17 avg
Prismatic Evolutions - PRE EN2%$15 avg
Surging Sparks - SSP EN2%$15 avg
Trading Card Game Classic - CLF, CLL, CLK2%$16 avg

Cards seen most often

Named on 98% of readable pulls. The rest do not print a card number, and without one the card cannot be told apart from the set name.

Pikachu2%$23 avg
Bulbasaur1%$15 avg
Charizard ex1%$17 avg
Gengar1%$14 avg
Magikarp1%$20 avg
Indeedee V1%$13 avg
Wartortle1%$18 avg
Charizard<1%$42 avg

Built from the 1000 indexed pulls of this pack so far — a record of what has come out, not a promise about what is left.

04 / Floor safety

30th Anniversary - Day 1: Red floor safety & buyback reality

The two ways average EV lies to you — how top-heavy the pack is, and what FMV actually converts to in cash — then which exit pays most.

In 30th Anniversary - Day 1: Red, the top 2% of pulls account for 8% of all pulled value — low dilution. Value is spread fairly evenly across the pool, so the average is close to what a typical rip returns. The observed instant-offer ratio is 85% of FMV, which is the cash number every verdict on this page already uses.

Floor safety

low dilution

8% of everything this pack has paid out came from just the top 2% of pulls. Value is spread broadly across pulls, so the average sits closer to the typical rip here than it does on a top-heavy pack. It still sits above the median — check both.

Buyback reality

84.8% of FMV observed

Across 4,693 indexed pulls that carry a recorded bid, a $100 FMV pull cashes out around $85 if you instant-sell — in line with the platform's 84.6%. This is the figure every verdict on the site multiplies by.

Holding, listing, or physically redeeming can beat the instant offer — but redemption shipping (typically $16+) eats small wins.

Net exit value

962 paired pulls · 96% bid coverage · confidence 100%

Instant-selling the average (mean) pull here returns $16.11 — $2.87 below sticker FMV (15.1% haircut). That figure is the average of bids we actually recorded, not the platform rate applied blind.

Pro compares all three exits side by side, with the redemption breakeven and the value-by-value haircut curve for this pack.

Bids are recorded, resale is not. Instant-buyback figures are real offers captured at index time and can move. Redemption shipping starts near $16 in the US, is higher internationally, and is charged per shipment — batching pulls lowers it. We publish no resale estimate, liquidity score, or time-to-sell, because no such data is available to us. How buyback works

05 / Observed odds

30th Anniversary - Day 1: Red odds — observed, not posted

Reconstructed from real pulls, so it shows what has actually been coming out — posted odds can't do that. It is a record of pulls, not a count of what is left.

Under $80.0%· stable
$8 – $1649.5%· stable
$16 – $31 · beats the pack41.9%· stable
$31 – $78 · big hit8.1%· stable
$78+ · chase0.5%· stable

Observed across 1,000 indexed pulls — what actually came out of this pack, independent of the posted odds. The 48h column shows tier drift: a falling green tier means fewer of the good cards have come out lately — which may mean they are running out, or may just be a quiet 48 hours.

07 / Big hits

Biggest 30th Anniversary - Day 1: Red pulls

2004 Pokémon Pop Series 1 #17 Tyranitar EX - Holo Holo (PSA 5 EX)

$155PSA 5 EX

2019 Pokémon Sun & Moon Tag Team GX All Stars #016 Reshiram & Charizard GX - Holo (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$119PSA 10 GEM MINT

2023 Pokémon Pal EN-Paldea Evolved #226 Maushold - Illustration Rare (PSA 9 MINT)

$118PSA 9 MINT

2024 Pokémon Greninja EX Ultra-Premium Collection #106 Greninja EX - Holo (PSA 9 MINT)

$106PSA 9 MINT

2016 Pokémon XY Evolutions #11 Charizard - Reverse Foil (PSA 8 NM-MT)

$103PSA 8 NM-MT

1999 Base Set #1/102 Alakazam - Holo (CGC 8 NM-MT)

$102CGC 8 NM-MT

2023 Pokémon Sv3a-Raging Surf #069 Groudon - Art Rare (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$98PSA 10 GEM MINT

2025 Pokémon Simplified CBB1 C-Gem Pack Vol 1 #09 Fuecoco (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$92PSA 10 GEM MINT

08 / EV history

30th Anniversary - Day 1: Red EV over time

Snapshot per scraper run. The dashed line is break-even — EV above it is +EV.

Calibrated EV currently sits at $18.95, and has moved up 2.5% over the last 7 days.

$18.95EV

09 / Quick answers

30th Anniversary - Day 1: Red — quick answers

Is 30th Anniversary - Day 1: Red worth buying right now?: Our current verdict is NO DATA (score 0/100). No pack price on record, so no net or ROI figure can be computed.
What is the EV of 30th Anniversary - Day 1: Red?: The calibrated EV is $18.95 against a pack price of not yet set, with a typical (median) pull of $15.20 across 4,901 indexed pulls.
What are the real odds of beating the pack price on 30th Anniversary - Day 1: Red?: We cannot say yet. 30th Anniversary - Day 1: Red has no pack price on record, and the odds of beating a price are undefined until there is one to beat. The 4,901 indexed pulls are still shown below as a record of what has come out.
What is the typical pull from 30th Anniversary - Day 1: Red?: The median pull is $15.20 — half of all indexed rips returned less than that. The single best recorded pull is $155.30.

10 / Pull log