Is Monday Night Matchup (Spicy) worth buying right now?

Our current verdict is NO DATA (score 0/100). No pack price on record, so no net or ROI figure can be computed.

What is the EV of Monday Night Matchup (Spicy)?

The calibrated EV is $90.63 against a pack price of not yet set, with a typical (median) pull of $67.55 across 40 indexed pulls.

What are the real odds of beating the pack price on Monday Night Matchup (Spicy)?

We cannot say yet. Monday Night Matchup (Spicy) has no pack price on record, and the odds of beating a price are undefined until there is one to beat. The 40 indexed pulls are still shown below as a record of what has come out.

What is the typical pull from Monday Night Matchup (Spicy)?

The median pull is $67.55 — half of all indexed rips returned less than that. The single best recorded pull is $158.70.

Football

Monday Night Matchup (Spicy)

Monday Night Matchup (Spicy) is a Courtyard Football mystery pack with a calibrated expected value of $90.63 and a typical (median) pull of $67.55 across 40 indexed pulls. Its pack price is not yet confirmed, so the EV ratio, hit rate, and Rip Advisor verdict are pending.

Calibrated EV

$91

— ROI

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE · 40 pulls · todaySIGNAL Fresh · 2.0 h ago

Calibrated EV: $91
Cash-out EV: $77
Pack price: Unknown
Typical pull: $68
Hit rate: —
Lifetime EV: $91
Pulls indexed: 40
Last pull: 9m ago

01 / Rip Advisor

Is Monday Night Matchup (Spicy) worth it right now?

score 0/100NO DATA

050100

No pack price on record, so no net or ROI figure can be computed.

Log this decision:

Verdict is computed transparently from indexed pulls: cash-out ROI, median pull, 7-day trend, hit rate, and sample size. Redemption shipping (typically $16+) is not included — cards worth less than a few times the shipping cost are usually better instant-sold than shipped. Not financial advice.

02 / Pool signals

What's happening in the Monday Night Matchup (Spicy) pool

Lifecycle stage, health, and chase removals — read from indexed pulls, never guessed.

No price set — pool economics can’t be computed.

NO DATA

No price set — pool economics can’t be computed.

Pro adds the Pool Health score and chase-removal impact.

Not observable: packs remaining, value remaining, and which chases are still in the pool — Courtyard publishes a pull feed, not inventory. We label those unavailable rather than estimate them. Everything above is computed from indexed pulls and EV snapshots; thin or stale data pulls the score toward neutral. Formula

Chase tracker

No pack price set, so a chase tier cannot be anchored.

Signal lifetime

SIGNAL Fresh · 2.0 h ago

Recomputed against pulls indexed in the last few hours.

Newest pull: 2.0 h; observed
Pull rate: too soon; observed
Pulls, 7d: 33; observed
Half-life: Pro

Aged, not predicted. Half-life counts how fast new evidence arrives, measured from real pull timestamps — it is not a forecast of where EV is heading. We publish no EV-drift half-life because our snapshot history is still too short for a regression to mean anything. The seeded placeholder points this note used to warn about have been flagged in the database and excluded from every chart, trend and score, so what you see plotted is observed data. Note the headline EV is decay-weighted, so it reacts to new pulls sooner than this whole-sample horizon implies. Methodology

03 / Contents

What has come out of Monday Night Matchup (Spicy)

The eras, sets and cards this pack has actually produced. A record of past pulls — Courtyard publishes no inventory, so this is not a statement about what is left.

By era

Cards seen range from 1952 to 2025.

Current (2020+)67%$95 avg
Vintage (pre-2000)15%$53 avg
Modern (2010-2019)12%$55 avg
Retro (2000-2009)6%$62 avg

Most common sets

Sets these pulls came from.

Panini Prizm21%$83 avg
Panini Donruss Optic18%$72 avg
Topps15%$55 avg
Panini Mosaic12%$97 avg
Topps Chrome9%$60 avg
Panini Donruss6%$122 avg
Bowman Large3%$52 avg
Panini Impeccable Elegance Rookie Helmet and Patch Autographs3%$150 avg

Cards seen most often

Named on every readable pull.

Bo Nix9%$97 avg
Cam Ward6%$78 avg
Jaxson Dart6%$132 avg
Jayden Daniels6%$89 avg
Justin Fields6%$122 avg
Tom Brady6%$67 avg
Brett Favre3%$49 avg
Brock Bowers3%$55 avg

Built from the 33 indexed pulls of this pack so far — a record of what has come out, not a promise about what is left.

04 / Floor safety

Monday Night Matchup (Spicy) floor safety & buyback reality

The two ways average EV lies to you — how top-heavy the pack is, and what FMV actually converts to in cash — then which exit pays most.

In Monday Night Matchup (Spicy), the top 2% of pulls account for 6% of all pulled value — low dilution. Value is spread fairly evenly across the pool, so the average is close to what a typical rip returns. The observed instant-offer ratio is 85% of FMV, which is the cash number every verdict on this page already uses.

Floor safety

low dilution

6% of everything this pack has paid out came from just the top 2% of pulls. Value is spread broadly across pulls, so the average sits closer to the typical rip here than it does on a top-heavy pack. It still sits above the median — check both.

Buyback reality

84.6% of FMV observed

Across 38 indexed pulls that carry a recorded bid, a $100 FMV pull cashes out around $85 if you instant-sell — in line with the platform's 84.6%. This is the figure every verdict on the site multiplies by.

Holding, listing, or physically redeeming can beat the instant offer — but redemption shipping (typically $16+) eats small wins.

Net exit value

31 paired pulls · 94% bid coverage · confidence 75%

Instant-selling the average (mean) pull here returns $70.38 — $12.81 below sticker FMV (15.4% haircut). That figure is the average of bids we actually recorded, not the platform rate applied blind.

Pro compares all three exits side by side, with the redemption breakeven and the value-by-value haircut curve for this pack.

Bids are recorded, resale is not. Instant-buyback figures are real offers captured at index time and can move. Redemption shipping starts near $16 in the US, is higher internationally, and is charged per shipment — batching pulls lowers it. We publish no resale estimate, liquidity score, or time-to-sell, because no such data is available to us. How buyback works

05 / Observed odds

Monday Night Matchup (Spicy) odds — observed, not posted

Reconstructed from real pulls, so it shows what has actually been coming out — posted odds can't do that. It is a record of pulls, not a count of what is left.

Under $330.0%· stable
$33 – $6748.5%· stable
$67 – $134 · beats the pack36.4%· stable
$134 – $335 · big hit15.2%· stable
$335+ · chase0.0%· stable

Observed across 33 indexed pulls — what actually came out of this pack, independent of the posted odds. The 48h column shows tier drift: a falling green tier means fewer of the good cards have come out lately — which may mean they are running out, or may just be a quiet 48 hours.

07 / Big hits

Biggest Monday Night Matchup (Spicy) pulls

2021 Panini Prizm #334 Justin Fields - Pink Prizm (BGS 10 PRISTINE)

$159BGS 10 PRISTINE

2023 Panini Impeccable Elegance Rookie Helmet and Patch Autographs #11 Hendon Hooker (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$150PSA 10 GEM MINT

2025 Panini Donruss Optic #273 Jaxson Dart - Blue Hyper (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$149PSA 10 GEM MINT

2024 Topps Signature Class Fluidity #F4 Bo Nix (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$146PSA 10 GEM MINT

2023 Panini Donruss #341 Tank Dell - Optic Preview-Autograph (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$135PSA 10 GEM MINT

2025 Panini Mosaic #28 Drake Maye - Reactive Blue (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$118PSA 10 GEM MINT

2025 Panini Mosaic #362 Jaxson Dart - Reactive Yellow (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$116PSA 10 GEM MINT

2023 Panini Prizm #311 Bryce Young - Red/White/Blue Prizm (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$114PSA 10 GEM MINT

08 / EV history

Monday Night Matchup (Spicy) EV over time

Snapshot per scraper run. The dashed line is break-even — EV above it is +EV.

Calibrated EV currently sits at $90.63, and has moved up 49.5% over the last 7 days.

$81.61EV

09 / Quick answers

Monday Night Matchup (Spicy) — quick answers

Is Monday Night Matchup (Spicy) worth buying right now?: Our current verdict is NO DATA (score 0/100). No pack price on record, so no net or ROI figure can be computed.
What is the EV of Monday Night Matchup (Spicy)?: The calibrated EV is $90.63 against a pack price of not yet set, with a typical (median) pull of $67.55 across 40 indexed pulls.
What are the real odds of beating the pack price on Monday Night Matchup (Spicy)?: We cannot say yet. Monday Night Matchup (Spicy) has no pack price on record, and the odds of beating a price are undefined until there is one to beat. The 40 indexed pulls are still shown below as a record of what has come out.
What is the typical pull from Monday Night Matchup (Spicy)?: The median pull is $67.55 — half of all indexed rips returned less than that. The single best recorded pull is $158.70.

10 / Pull log