Is $500 Shipwreck Coins Pack worth buying right now?

Our current verdict is SKIP (score 25/100). Early read: only 8 pulls indexed — this is a lean, not a settled verdict. The numbers can swing hard until the sample reaches 30.

What is the EV of $500 Shipwreck Coins Pack?

The calibrated EV is $430.08 against a pack price of $500.00, with a typical (median) pull of $458.00 across 8 indexed pulls.

What are the real odds of beating the pack price on $500 Shipwreck Coins Pack?

12.5% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. These are observed odds reconstructed from real pulls, not the posted odds.

What is the typical pull from $500 Shipwreck Coins Pack?

The median pull is $458.00 — half of all indexed rips returned less than that. The single best recorded pull is $700.00.

Shipwreck

$500 Shipwreck Coins Pack

$500 Shipwreck Coins Pack is a $500 Courtyard Shipwreck mystery pack with a calibrated expected value of $430.08, worth $363.85 at its observed 85% buyback — a cash-out ratio of 0.728x (0.860x at sticker FMV), so it currently returns less than its price on the average rip once the buyback haircut is taken. 12.5% of 8 indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Early Rip Advisor lean (small sample): SKIP (25/100).

Ranked #70 of 74 ranked packs by cash-out ratio.

This pack is no longer sold on Courtyard — the numbers below are its historical record.

Cash-out ratio

0.728x

$363.85 back on a $500 pack, at this pack's observed 85% buyback. At sticker FMV it is 0.860x.

95% range $330.72–$396.97, clear of the $500 price.

SKIP-27.2% ROI

EMERGING · 8 pulls · 2dSIGNAL Weakening · 3 days ago

Calibrated EV: $430
Cash-out EV: $364
Pack price: $500
Typical pull: $458
Hit rate: 12.5%
Lifetime EV: $464
Pulls indexed: 8
Last pull: 2d ago

01 / Rip Advisor

Is $500 Shipwreck Coins Pack worth it right now?

Early readscore 25/100SKIP

050100

Early read: only 8 pulls indexed — this is a lean, not a settled verdict. The numbers can swing hard until the sample reaches 30.
Cash-out EV is $364 on a $500 pack (-27.2% net after the ~85% buyback) — the average rip loses money.
Cash-out EV is $363.85, and the sample is precise enough to place it below the $500.00 price: the 95% range is $330.72 to $396.97, which does not include the price.
The typical pull (median) is $458 — most rips return less than the pack price; the EV is carried by rare chase cards.
What recent pulls return has been stable over the last 7 days.
Low volatility: steady pack. Fewer duds, but also fewer moonshots.
Calibrated EV (recent pulls weighted) is $430 vs $464 lifetime — the pool has gotten worse recently.
12.5% of pulls meet or beat the pack price, across 8 indexed pulls.

Log this decision:

Verdict is computed transparently from indexed pulls: cash-out ROI, median pull, 7-day trend, hit rate, and sample size. Redemption shipping (typically $16+) is not included — cards worth less than a few times the shipping cost are usually better instant-sold than shipped. Not financial advice.

02 / Pool signals

What's happening in the $500 Shipwreck Coins Pack pool

Lifecycle stage, health, and chase removals — read from indexed pulls, never guessed.

8 pulls indexed — drift math needs 30+ to mean anything. Early read only.

BUILDING SAMPLE

8 pulls indexed — drift math needs 30+ to mean anything. Early read only.

Pro adds the Pool Health score and chase-removal impact.

Not observable: packs remaining, value remaining, and which chases are still in the pool — Courtyard publishes a pull feed, not inventory. We label those unavailable rather than estimate them. Everything above is computed from indexed pulls and EV snapshots; thin or stale data pulls the score toward neutral. Formula

Chase tracker

Needs 30+ indexed pulls to define a chase tier for this pack — 8 so far.

Signal lifetime

SIGNAL Weakening · 3 days ago

Pull flow has slowed past the usual gap of 26 h, so this read is ageing faster than the pack is producing evidence. At the observed pull rate, half the evidence behind this read is replaced in about 8.6 days.

Newest pull: 3 days; observed
Pull rate: 0.9/day; observed
Pulls, 7d: 5; observed
Half-life: Pro

Aged, not predicted. Half-life counts how fast new evidence arrives, measured from real pull timestamps — it is not a forecast of where EV is heading. We publish no EV-drift half-life because our snapshot history is still too short for a regression to mean anything. The seeded placeholder points this note used to warn about have been flagged in the database and excluded from every chart, trend and score, so what you see plotted is observed data. Note the headline EV is decay-weighted, so it reacts to new pulls sooner than this whole-sample horizon implies. Methodology

03 / Contents

What has come out of $500 Shipwreck Coins Pack

The eras, sets and cards this pack has actually produced. A record of past pulls — Courtyard publishes no inventory, so this is not a statement about what is left.

Only 8 pulls indexed. Below 25 the proportions below move a lot on a single pull — read them as examples of what has appeared, not as a profile of the pack.

By era

Cards seen range from 1851 to 1851.

Year not stated86%$444 avg
Vintage (pre-2000)14%$700 avg

Most common sets

Sets these pulls came from.

(1701-33) MEXICO 8R PHILIP V (17.13g) Vliegenthart14%$458 avg
(1702-33)MO MEXICO 4R PHILIP V (12.92g) Vliegenthart14%$441 avg
(1730-33)MOF MEXICO 8R PHILIP V (23.34g) Vliegenthart14%$458 avg
10C S.S. Central America #2 (with Pinch)14%$700 avg
1783MO FF MEXICO 8R EL CAZADOR14%$385 avg
NETHERLAND 1DUC Hollandia14%$460 avg
SPANISH NETHERLAND 1DUC BRABANT/ANTWERP DAV-4454 Hollandia14%$460 avg

Built from the 7 indexed pulls of this pack so far — a record of what has come out, not a promise about what is left. 1 name could not be read and is excluded.

07 / Big hits

Biggest $500 Shipwreck Coins Pack pulls

1851 10C S.S. Central America #2 (with Pinch) PCGS AU53

$700PCGS AU53

1647 SPANISH NETHERLAND 1DUC BRABANT/ANTWERP DAV-4454 Hollandia NGC GENUINE

$460NGC GENUINE

1742 NETHERLAND 1DUC Hollandia NGC GENUINE

$460NGC GENUINE

(1730-33)MOF MEXICO 8R PHILIP V (23.34g) Vliegenthart NGC GENUINE

$458NGC GENUINE

(1701-33) MEXICO 8R PHILIP V (17.13g) Vliegenthart NGC GENUINE

$458NGC GENUINE

(1702-33)MO MEXICO 4R PHILIP V (12.92g) Vliegenthart NGC GENUINE

$441NGC GENUINE

1783MO FF MEXICO 8R EL CAZADOR NGC GENUINE

$385NGC GENUINE

1784MO FF MEXICO 1/2R NGC

$350

08 / EV history

$500 Shipwreck Coins Pack EV over time

Snapshot per scraper run. The dashed line is break-even — EV above it is +EV.

Calibrated EV currently sits at $430.08, below the $500 pack price, and has moved down 1.1% over the last 7 days.

0.728xCash-out ratio

09 / Quick answers

$500 Shipwreck Coins Pack — quick answers

Is $500 Shipwreck Coins Pack worth buying right now?: Our current verdict is SKIP (score 25/100). Early read: only 8 pulls indexed — this is a lean, not a settled verdict. The numbers can swing hard until the sample reaches 30.
What is the EV of $500 Shipwreck Coins Pack?: The calibrated EV is $430.08 against a pack price of $500.00, with a typical (median) pull of $458.00 across 8 indexed pulls.
What are the real odds of beating the pack price on $500 Shipwreck Coins Pack?: 12.5% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. These are observed odds reconstructed from real pulls, not the posted odds.
What is the typical pull from $500 Shipwreck Coins Pack?: The median pull is $458.00 — half of all indexed rips returned less than that. The single best recorded pull is $700.00.

10 / Pull log

Latest $500 Shipwreck Coins Pack pulls

Compare $500 Shipwreck Coins Pack with other Shipwreck packs

Same math, same methodology — cash-out ratios after each pack's own buyback, so the comparison is apples to apples.

Understand these numbers

Every figure on this page — EV, EV ratio, hit rate, dilution — is defined once and computed the same way for every pack.