Is $500 Shipwreck Coins Pack worth buying right now?

Our current verdict is CAUTION (score 64/100). The average only beats the price because of one card. Drop this pack's single biggest recent pull and cash-out EV falls to $423.78 against a $500 price — so the buy case rests on that one pull repeating.

What is the EV of $500 Shipwreck Coins Pack?

The calibrated EV is $622.88 against a pack price of $500.00, with a typical (median) pull of $458.00 across 55 indexed pulls.

What are the real odds of beating the pack price on $500 Shipwreck Coins Pack?

36.4% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price, and 7.3% returned at least double the price. These are observed odds reconstructed from real pulls, not the posted odds.

What is the typical pull from $500 Shipwreck Coins Pack?

The median pull is $458.00 — half of all indexed rips returned less than that. The single best recorded pull is $2,000.00.

Shipwreck

$500 Shipwreck Coins Pack

$500 Shipwreck Coins Pack is a $500 Courtyard Shipwreck mystery pack with a calibrated expected value of $622.88, worth $531.44 at its observed 85% buyback — a cash-out ratio of 1.063x (1.246x at sticker FMV), so it currently pays out more than it costs on average, after Courtyard's buyback haircut (+EV). 36.4% of 55 indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Rip Advisor verdict: CAUTION (64/100).

Ranked #4 of 75 ranked packs by cash-out ratio.

This pack is no longer sold on Courtyard — the numbers below are its historical record.

Cash-out ratio

1.063x

$531.44 back on a $500 pack, at this pack's observed 85% buyback. At sticker FMV it is 1.246x.

95% range $349.11–$713.77 — that still includes the $500 price, so this edge is inside the noise of the sample.

CAUTION+6.3% ROI

EMERGING · 55 pulls (17 effective) · 3dSIGNAL Stale · 4 days ago

Calibrated EV: $623
Cash-out EV: $531
Pack price: $500
Typical pull: $458
Hit rate: 36.4%
Lifetime EV: $546
Pulls indexed: 55
Last pull: 3d ago

01 / Rip Advisor

Is $500 Shipwreck Coins Pack worth it right now?

score 64/100CAUTION

050100

The average only beats the price because of one card. Drop this pack's single biggest recent pull and cash-out EV falls to $423.78 against a $500 price — so the buy case rests on that one pull repeating.
Cash-out EV is $531 on a $500 pack (6.3% net after the ~85% buyback) — the average rip beats the price.
Cash-out EV is $531.44 against a $500.00 price, and that gap is smaller than the uncertainty around it — the 95% range is $349.11 to $713.77. On this sample the pack cannot be told apart from break-even in either direction.
The typical pull (median) is $458 — most rips return less than the pack price; the EV is carried by rare chase cards.
Recent pulls are averaging 21.5% above where they were 7 days ago. A restock would look like this; so would a lucky week. We cannot see inventory, so this is a change in what came out, not a confirmed change in what is in there.
Calibrated EV (recent pulls weighted) is $623 vs $546 lifetime — the pool has improved recently.
36.4% of pulls meet or beat the pack price, across 55 indexed pulls.

Downside · bottom-quartile rip

−$167

1 in 4 rips returns ≤ $333 cash — covering 67% of the price.

Upside · top-decile rip

+$37

1 in 10 rips returns ≥ $537 cash. Both figures use the observed buyback ratio.

Log this decision:

Verdict is computed transparently from indexed pulls: cash-out ROI, median pull, 7-day trend, hit rate, and sample size. Redemption shipping (typically $16+) is not included — cards worth less than a few times the shipping cost are usually better instant-sold than shipped. Not financial advice.

02 / Pool signals

What's happening in the $500 Shipwreck Coins Pack pool

Lifecycle stage, health, and chase removals — read from indexed pulls, never guessed.

EV up 22% in 7 days and recent pulls run above lifetime — a restock signal, not a confirmed restock.

RESTOCK SIGNAL

EV up 22% in 7 days and recent pulls run above lifetime — a restock signal, not a confirmed restock.

Pro adds the Pool Health score and chase-removal impact.

Not observable: packs remaining, value remaining, and which chases are still in the pool — Courtyard publishes a pull feed, not inventory. We label those unavailable rather than estimate them. Everything above is computed from indexed pulls and EV snapshots; thin or stale data pulls the score toward neutral. Formula

Chase tracker

chase tier ≥ $2,500 · confidence 87%

No chase-tier pulls (≥ $2500) observed in the last 30 days.

Removals are facts; what's left is not. Each row is a unique graded card observed leaving this pack, so it is no longer in the pool — though a card can return after a buyback, which is why re-listings are flagged. We show no “chance it remains”: Courtyard publishes pulls, not inventory, so that number would be guesswork. Formula

Signal lifetime

SIGNAL Stale · 4 days ago

No new pulls for well past this pack's usual gap (typically 22 h). It may be paused, sold out, or no longer indexed. At the observed pull rate, half the evidence behind this read is replaced in about 50 days.

Newest pull: 4 days; observed
Pull rate: 1.1/day; observed
Pulls, 7d: 10; observed
Half-life: Pro

Aged, not predicted. Half-life counts how fast new evidence arrives, measured from real pull timestamps — it is not a forecast of where EV is heading. We publish no EV-drift half-life because our snapshot history is still too short for a regression to mean anything. The seeded placeholder points this note used to warn about have been flagged in the database and excluded from every chart, trend and score, so what you see plotted is observed data. Note the headline EV is decay-weighted, so it reacts to new pulls sooner than this whole-sample horizon implies. Methodology

03 / Contents

What has come out of $500 Shipwreck Coins Pack

The eras, sets and cards this pack has actually produced. A record of past pulls — Courtyard publishes no inventory, so this is not a statement about what is left.

By era

Cards seen range from 1851 to 1858.

Year not stated96%$545 avg
Vintage (pre-2000)4%$1,350 avg

Most common sets

Sets these pulls came from.

SPANISH NETHERLAND 1DUC BRABANT/ANTWERP DAV-4454 Hollandia6%$460 avg
1679P C BOLIVIA 4R (9.92g) Consolacion4%$422 avg
1737MO MF MEXICO 8R Hollandia4%$584 avg
1742MO MF MEXICO 4R Hollandia4%$535 avg
1895CA MM MEXICO 8R USS Charleston4%$516 avg
(1618-19)SP. NETHERLAND 1DUC BRABANT DAV-4428 Hollandia2%$385 avg
(1621-28) MEXICO 8R PHILIP IV (27.07g) Lucayan2%$1,170 avg
(1631-36)SP. NETHERLAND 1DUC BRABANT/ANTWERP DAV-4444 Hollandia2%$385 avg

Built from the 47 indexed pulls of this pack so far — a record of what has come out, not a promise about what is left. 8 names could not be read and are excluded.

04 / Floor safety

$500 Shipwreck Coins Pack floor safety & buyback reality

The two ways average EV lies to you — how top-heavy the pack is, and what FMV actually converts to in cash — then which exit pays most.

In $500 Shipwreck Coins Pack, the top 2% of pulls account for 13% of all pulled value — low dilution. Value is spread fairly evenly across the pool, so the average is close to what a typical rip returns. The observed instant-offer ratio is 86% of FMV, which is the cash number every verdict on this page already uses.

Floor safety

low dilution

13% of everything this pack has paid out came from just the top 2% of pulls. Value is spread broadly across pulls, so the average sits closer to the typical rip here than it does on a top-heavy pack. It still sits above the median — check both.

Buyback reality

85.3% of FMV observed

Across 53 indexed pulls that carry a recorded bid, a $100 FMV pull cashes out around $85 if you instant-sell — better than the platform's 84.6%. This is the figure every verdict on the site multiplies by.

Measured per card rather than per dollar the ratio is 85.7% — higher because cheaper cards draw proportionally better offers. That one describes a single card; the 85.3% above describes a basket, which is what an expected value needs.

Holding, listing, or physically redeeming can beat the instant offer — but redemption shipping (typically $16+) eats small wins.

Net exit value

53 paired pulls · 96% bid coverage · confidence 86%

Instant-selling the average (mean) pull here returns $469.46 — $80.77 below sticker FMV (14.7% haircut). That figure is the average of bids we actually recorded, not the platform rate applied blind.

Pro compares all three exits side by side, with the redemption breakeven and the value-by-value haircut curve for this pack.

Bids are recorded, resale is not. Instant-buyback figures are real offers captured at index time and can move. Redemption shipping starts near $16 in the US, is higher internationally, and is charged per shipment — batching pulls lowers it. We publish no resale estimate, liquidity score, or time-to-sell, because no such data is available to us. How buyback works

05 / Observed odds

$500 Shipwreck Coins Pack odds — observed, not posted

Reconstructed from real pulls, so it shows what has actually been coming out — posted odds can't do that. It is a record of pulls, not a count of what is left.

Across 55 indexed pulls, 36.4% returned at least the $500 pack price and 7.3% returned double or more; the single best recorded pull is $2,000.

Under $2500.0%· stable
$250 – $50063.6%· stable
$500 – $1,000 · beats the pack29.1%· stable
$1,000 – $2,500 · big hit7.3%· stable
$2,500+ · chase0.0%· stable

Observed across 55 indexed pulls — what actually came out of this pack, independent of the posted odds. The 48h column shows tier drift: a falling green tier means fewer of the good cards have come out lately — which may mean they are running out, or may just be a quiet 48 hours.

06 / Simulator

$500 Shipwreck Coins Pack rip simulator

What ripping 1–20 packs looks like, using this pack's actual pull distribution.

Packs to rip5Hoping for

Averaged over

$622.88 per pull

Cost: $2,500
Expected cash-out: $2,657
Expected net: +$157
≥1 hit chance: 89.6%

Recent pool: pulls are weighted so newer ones count for more, the same basis as this pack’s headline, verdict and the budget tool. The 55 pulls behind the hit chance are unweighted either way, and the 85% buyback is applied to both. These two disagree here: $31.44 per pack recent-weighted against -$34.43 all-time. The pool has moved, so which number you want depends on whether you think the recent run continues. Averages describe many rips — any single rip can land anywhere on the distribution.

Monte Carlo · 10,000 trials

Packs5

P(profit) 28.7%

Mean net −$178

Cost $2,500

Worst 5%: −$772
Bottom quartile: −$620
Median: −$475
Top quartile: +$270
Best 5%: +$931

Bootstrap resampling of 55 observed pulls with the 85% cash-out applied. Every pull is drawn with equal probability, so this is an all-time average: it will sit below the headline whenever the recent pool has run better than the lifetime one, and above it when the reverse is true. It also assumes the pool doesn't change as you rip — for top-heavy packs the downside is understated once the grail leaves. Estimates, not financial advice.

07 / Big hits

Biggest $500 Shipwreck Coins Pack pulls

1858 G.BRITAIN 1SOV Douro Treasure NGC AU58

$2,000NGC AU58

1874S AUSTRALIA 1SOV ST.GEORGE Douro Treasure NGC AU58

$1,840NGC AU58

1880M AUSTRALIA 1SOV ST.GEORGE Douro Treasure NGC AU58

$1,780NGC AU58

(1621-28) MEXICO 8R PHILIP IV (27.07g) Lucayan NGC VFDETAILS

$1,170NGC VFDETAILS

1851 10C S.S. Central America #2 (with Pinch) PCGS AU53

$700PCGS AU53

1786MO FM MEXICO 8R HMS Athenienne NGC VFDETAILS

$660NGC VFDETAILS

1737MO MF MEXICO 8R Hollandia NGC SEASALVAGED

$584NGC SEASALVAGED

1740MO MF MEXICO 8R Hollandia NGC SEASALVAGED

$584NGC SEASALVAGED

08 / EV history

$500 Shipwreck Coins Pack EV over time

Snapshot per scraper run. The dashed line is break-even — EV above it is +EV.

Calibrated EV currently sits at $622.88, above the $500 pack price, and has moved up 21.5% over the last 7 days.

1.063xCash-out ratio

09 / Quick answers

$500 Shipwreck Coins Pack — quick answers

Is $500 Shipwreck Coins Pack worth buying right now?: Our current verdict is CAUTION (score 64/100). The average only beats the price because of one card. Drop this pack's single biggest recent pull and cash-out EV falls to $423.78 against a $500 price — so the buy case rests on that one pull repeating.
What is the EV of $500 Shipwreck Coins Pack?: The calibrated EV is $622.88 against a pack price of $500.00, with a typical (median) pull of $458.00 across 55 indexed pulls.
What are the real odds of beating the pack price on $500 Shipwreck Coins Pack?: 36.4% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price, and 7.3% returned at least double the price. These are observed odds reconstructed from real pulls, not the posted odds.
What is the typical pull from $500 Shipwreck Coins Pack?: The median pull is $458.00 — half of all indexed rips returned less than that. The single best recorded pull is $2,000.00.

10 / Pull log