Is Sports PSA 10 worth buying right now?

Our current verdict is SKIP (score 36/100). Cash-out EV is $158 on a $179 pack (-11.9% net after the ~85% buyback) — the average rip loses money.

What is the EV of Sports PSA 10?

The calibrated EV is $186.36 against a pack price of $179.00, with a typical (median) pull of $153.00 across 37 indexed pulls.

What are the real odds of beating the pack price on Sports PSA 10?

32.4% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price, and 5.4% returned at least double the price. These are observed odds reconstructed from real pulls, not the posted odds.

What is the typical pull from Sports PSA 10?

The median pull is $153.00 — half of all indexed rips returned less than that. The single best recorded pull is $439.70.

Soccer

Sports PSA 10

Sports PSA 10 is a $179 Courtyard Soccer mystery pack with a calibrated expected value of $186.36, worth $157.66 at its observed 85% buyback — a cash-out ratio of 0.881x (1.041x at sticker FMV), so it currently returns less than its price on the average rip once the buyback haircut is taken. 32.4% of 37 indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Rip Advisor verdict: SKIP (36/100).

Ranked #30 of 129 tracked packs by cash-out ratio, #1 of 8 Soccer packs.

This pack is no longer sold on Courtyard — the numbers below are its historical record.

Cash-out ratio

0.881x

$157.66 back on a $179 pack, at this pack's observed 85% buyback. At sticker FMV it is 1.041x.

SKIP-11.9% ROI

LOW CONFIDENCE· 37 pulls · 14dSIGNAL Invalidated · 15 days ago

Calibrated EV: $186
Cash-out EV: $158
Pack price: $179
Typical pull: $153
Hit rate: 32.4%
Lifetime EV: $187
Pulls indexed: 37
Last pull: 14d ago

01 / Rip Advisor

Is Sports PSA 10 worth it right now?

score 36/100SKIP

050100

Cash-out EV is $158 on a $179 pack (-11.9% net after the ~85% buyback) — the average rip loses money.
The typical pull (median) is $153 — most rips return less than the pack price; the EV is carried by rare chase cards.
EV has been stable over the last 7 days.
32.4% of pulls meet or beat the pack price, across 37 indexed pulls.

Downside · bottom-quartile rip

−$62

1 in 4 rips returns ≤ $117 cash — covering 65% of the price.

Upside · top-decile rip

+$59

1 in 10 rips returns ≥ $238 cash. Both figures use the observed buyback ratio.

Log this decision:

Verdict is computed transparently from indexed pulls: cash-out ROI, median pull, 7-day trend, hit rate, and sample size. Redemption shipping (typically $16+) is not included — cards worth less than a few times the shipping cost are usually better instant-sold than shipped. Not financial advice.

02 / Pool signals

What's happening in the Sports PSA 10 pool

Lifecycle stage, health, and chase removals — read from indexed pulls, never guessed.

No new pulls indexed in 14 days — pool state unknown until data resumes.

DATA STALE

No new pulls indexed in 14 days — pool state unknown until data resumes.

Pro adds the Pool Health score and chase-removal impact.

Not observable: packs remaining, value remaining, and which chases are still in the pool — Courtyard publishes a pull feed, not inventory. We label those unavailable rather than estimate them. Everything above is computed from indexed pulls and EV snapshots; thin or stale data pulls the score toward neutral. Formula

Chase tracker

chase tier ≥ $895 · confidence 78%

No chase-tier pulls (≥ $895) observed in the last 30 days.

Removals are facts; what's left is not. Each row is a unique graded card observed leaving this pack, so it is no longer in the pool — though a card can return after a buyback, which is why re-listings are flagged. We show no “chance it remains”: Courtyard publishes pulls, not inventory, so that number would be guesswork. Formula

Signal lifetime

SIGNAL Invalidated · 15 days ago

Re-check before acting: the price moved after the newest pull we indexed.

The pack price changed after the most recent pull, so every EV-vs-price call here predates the current ticket.

Newest pull: 15 days; observed
Pull rate: none; observed
Pulls, 7d: 0; observed
Half-life: Pro

Aged, not predicted. Half-life counts how fast new evidence arrives, measured from real pull timestamps — it is not a forecast of where EV is heading. We publish no EV-drift half-life because our snapshot history is too short and its early stretch is seeded placeholder data; a number regressed from that would describe our seed script, not the market. Note the headline EV is decay-weighted, so it reacts to new pulls sooner than this whole-sample horizon implies. Methodology

03 / Contents

What has come out of Sports PSA 10

The eras, sets and cards this pack has actually produced. A record of past pulls — Courtyard publishes no inventory, so this is not a statement about what is left.

By era

Cards seen range from 1988 to 2026.

Current (2020+)73%$184 avg
Modern (2010-2019)16%$208 avg
Retro (2000-2009)5%$132 avg
Vintage (pre-2000)5%$222 avg

Most common sets

Sets these pulls came from.

Panini Prizm11%$170 avg
Topps8%$180 avg
Panini Donruss Optic5%$142 avg
Bowman Chrome Prospects3%$164 avg
Fournier Estrellas Michael Jordan3%$278 avg
Panini Donruss Gridiron Marvels3%$253 avg
Panini Donruss Optic Downtown3%$381 avg
Panini Donruss Optic Uptowns3%$286 avg

Cards seen most often

Named on 97% of readable pulls. The rest do not print a card number, and without one the card cannot be told apart from the set name.

Cristiano Ronaldo6%$145 avg
Dylan Harper6%$142 avg
Justin Fields6%$317 avg
Tom Brady6%$199 avg
Aaron Judge3%$176 avg
Alejandro Garnacho3%$230 avg
Anthony Volpe3%$288 avg
Daniel Jones3%$144 avg

Built from the 37 indexed pulls of this pack so far — a record of what has come out, not a promise about what is left.

04 / Floor safety

Sports PSA 10 floor safety & buyback reality

The two ways average EV lies to you — how top-heavy the pack is, and what FMV actually converts to in cash — then which exit pays most.

In Sports PSA 10, the top 2% of pulls account for 6% of all pulled value — low dilution. Value is spread fairly evenly across the pool, so the average is close to what a typical rip returns. The observed instant-offer ratio is 85% of FMV, which is the cash number every verdict on this page already uses.

Floor safety

low dilution

6% of everything this pack has paid out came from just the top 2% of pulls. Value is spread broadly across pulls — the average EV is a fair picture of a typical rip.

Buyback reality

84.6% of FMV observed

Across offers we've indexed, a $100 FMV pull cashes out around $85 if you instant-sell — below the advertised ~90%, so FMV is not your exit price. Every number in our verdicts already uses this haircut.

Holding, listing, or physically redeeming can beat the instant offer — but redemption shipping (typically $16+) eats small wins.

Net exit value

37 paired pulls · 100% bid coverage · confidence 78%

Instant-selling a typical pull here returns $158.35 — $28.82 below sticker FMV (15.4% haircut). That figure is the average of bids we actually recorded, not an assumed 90%.

Pro compares all three exits side by side, with the redemption breakeven and the value-by-value haircut curve for this pack.

Bids are recorded, resale is not. Instant-buyback figures are real offers captured at index time and can move. Redemption shipping starts near $16 in the US, is higher internationally, and is charged per shipment — batching pulls lowers it. We publish no resale estimate, liquidity score, or time-to-sell, because no such data is available to us. How buyback works

05 / Observed odds

Sports PSA 10 odds — observed, not posted

Reconstructed from real pulls, so it reflects the pool as it drains — posted odds can't do that.

Across 37 indexed pulls, 32.4% returned at least the $179 pack price and 5.4% returned double or more; the single best recorded pull is $440.

Under $900.0%· stable
$90 – $17967.6%· stable
$179 – $358 · beats the pack27.0%· stable
$358 – $895 · big hit5.4%· stable
$895+ · chase0.0%· stable

Observed across 37 indexed pulls — what actually came out of this pack, independent of the posted odds. The 48h column shows tier drift: a falling green tier means the good cards are leaving the pool.

06 / Simulator

Sports PSA 10 rip simulator

What ripping 1–20 packs looks like, using this pack's actual pull distribution.

Packs to rip5Hoping for

Cost: $895
Expected cash-out: $792
Expected net: -$103
≥1 hit chance: 85.9%

Based on the observed distribution of 37 pulls and a 85% buyback. Averages describe many rips — any single rip can land anywhere on the distribution.

Monte Carlo · 10,000 trials

Packs5

P(profit) 22.2%

Mean net −$102

Cost $895

Worst 5%: −$294
Bottom quartile: −$205
Median: −$121
Top quartile: −$17
Best 5%: +$154

Bootstrap resampling of 37 observed pulls with the 85% cash-out applied. Assumes the pool doesn't change as you rip — for top-heavy packs the downside is understated once the grail leaves. Estimates, not financial advice.

07 / Big hits

Biggest Sports PSA 10 pulls

2024 Upper Deck O-Pee-Chee O-Pee-Chee Premier #P96 Macklin Celebrini (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$440PSA 10 GEM MINT

2021 Panini Donruss Optic Downtown #DT39 Justin Fields (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$381PSA 10 GEM MINT

2018 Panini USA Stars & Stripes 17U National Team Signatures #SS-AV Anthony Volpe (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$288PSA 10 GEM MINT

2024 Panini Donruss Optic Uptowns #23 John Elway (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$286PSA 10 GEM MINT

1988 Fournier Estrellas Michael Jordan - Rules Card (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$278PSA 10 GEM MINT

2011 Topps #240 Tom Brady (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$259PSA 10 GEM MINT

2021 Panini Donruss Gridiron Marvels #JFI Justin Fields (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$253PSA 10 GEM MINT

2017 Panini Prizm #117 Donovan Mitchell - Silver Prizm (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$247PSA 10 GEM MINT

08 / EV history

Sports PSA 10 EV over time

Snapshot per scraper run. The dashed line is break-even — EV above it is +EV.

Calibrated EV currently sits at $186.36, above the $179 pack price, and has moved up 0.0% over the last 7 days.

1.041xEV ratio

09 / Quick answers

Sports PSA 10 — quick answers

Is Sports PSA 10 worth buying right now?: Our current verdict is SKIP (score 36/100). Cash-out EV is $158 on a $179 pack (-11.9% net after the ~85% buyback) — the average rip loses money.
What is the EV of Sports PSA 10?: The calibrated EV is $186.36 against a pack price of $179.00, with a typical (median) pull of $153.00 across 37 indexed pulls.
What are the real odds of beating the pack price on Sports PSA 10?: 32.4% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price, and 5.4% returned at least double the price. These are observed odds reconstructed from real pulls, not the posted odds.
What is the typical pull from Sports PSA 10?: The median pull is $153.00 — half of all indexed rips returned less than that. The single best recorded pull is $439.70.

10 / Pull log