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Soccer Master Pack vs Sports PSA 10: which pack is the better rip?

On live data, Sports PSA 10 is currently the better value: a 0.881x cash-out ratio against Soccer Master Pack's 0.725x, across 100 indexed pulls combined. Numbers refresh as new pulls mint.

MetricSoccer Master PackSports PSA 10
VerdictSKIPSKIP
Pack price$100$179
Calibrated EV$85.38$186.36
Cash-out ratio0.725x0.881x
EV ratio (at sticker FMV)0.854x1.041x
Median pull$86.80$153.00
Hit rate25.4%32.4%
Volatility (stddev/EV)0.39x0.39x
Pulls indexed6337

02 / EV history

EV ratio over time, overlaid

Cash-out ratio over time, two packs compared. Soccer Master Pack: 462 points from Jul 26 to Sep 10, starting at 0.73x and ending at 0.72x, down overall (-1.1%), ranging between 0.66x and 0.98x. Sports PSA 10: 201 points from Aug 20 to Sep 10, starting at 0.83x and ending at 0.88x, up overall (+6.3%), ranging between 0.76x and 0.94x.

Soccer Master PackSports PSA 10

Cash-out ratios: calibrated EV after each pack's own observed buyback, against its current price. 1.00x is where a pack returns exactly what it costs.

03 / Quick answers

Soccer Master Pack vs Sports PSA 10 — quick answers

Which is better value right now: Soccer Master Pack or Sports PSA 10?
Sports PSA 10 currently offers the better cash-out ratio (0.881x vs 0.725x) — what each pack returns per dollar after its own buyback haircut. Ratios refresh as new pulls are indexed, so the lead can change.
Which pack has better odds of beating its price?
Soccer Master Pack: 25.4% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. Sports PSA 10: 32.4%. These are observed odds from real pulls, not posted odds.
Which pack is riskier?
Sports PSA 10 has the higher volatility (0.39x vs 0.39x stddev/EV) — its pulls swing further from the average, in both directions.

Full pages: Soccer Master Pack EV & verdict · Sports PSA 10 EV & verdict · Why average EV lies

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