Is National League (Spicy) worth buying right now?

Our current verdict is NO DATA (score 0/100). No pack price on record, so no net or ROI figure can be computed.

What is the EV of National League (Spicy)?

The calibrated EV is $154.76 against a pack price of not yet set, with a typical (median) pull of $124.90 across 117 indexed pulls.

What are the real odds of beating the pack price on National League (Spicy)?

We cannot say yet. National League (Spicy) has no pack price on record, and the odds of beating a price are undefined until there is one to beat. The 117 indexed pulls are still shown below as a record of what has come out.

What is the typical pull from National League (Spicy)?

The median pull is $124.90 — half of all indexed rips returned less than that. The single best recorded pull is $947.50.

Baseball

National League (Spicy)

National League (Spicy) is a Courtyard Baseball mystery pack with a calibrated expected value of $154.76 and a typical (median) pull of $124.90 across 117 indexed pulls. Its pack price is not yet confirmed, so the EV ratio, hit rate, and Rip Advisor verdict are pending.

Calibrated EV

$155

— ROI

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE · 117 pulls · 1dSIGNAL Stale · 36 h ago

Calibrated EV: $155
Cash-out EV: $131
Pack price: Unknown
Typical pull: $125
Hit rate: —
Lifetime EV: $153
Pulls indexed: 117
Last pull: 1d ago

01 / Rip Advisor

Is National League (Spicy) worth it right now?

score 0/100NO DATA

050100

No pack price on record, so no net or ROI figure can be computed.

Log this decision:

Verdict is computed transparently from indexed pulls: cash-out ROI, median pull, 7-day trend, hit rate, and sample size. Redemption shipping (typically $16+) is not included — cards worth less than a few times the shipping cost are usually better instant-sold than shipped. Not financial advice.

02 / Pool signals

What's happening in the National League (Spicy) pool

Lifecycle stage, health, and chase removals — read from indexed pulls, never guessed.

No price set — pool economics can’t be computed.

NO DATA

No price set — pool economics can’t be computed.

Pro adds the Pool Health score and chase-removal impact.

Not observable: packs remaining, value remaining, and which chases are still in the pool — Courtyard publishes a pull feed, not inventory. We label those unavailable rather than estimate them. Everything above is computed from indexed pulls and EV snapshots; thin or stale data pulls the score toward neutral. Formula

Chase tracker

No pack price set, so a chase tier cannot be anchored.

Signal lifetime

SIGNAL Stale · 36 h ago

No new pulls for well past this pack's usual gap (typically 1.9 h). It may be paused, sold out, or no longer indexed. At the observed pull rate, half the evidence behind this read is replaced in about 9.3 days.

Newest pull: 36 h; observed
Pull rate: 12.6/day; observed
Pulls, 7d: 77; observed
Half-life: Pro

Aged, not predicted. Half-life counts how fast new evidence arrives, measured from real pull timestamps — it is not a forecast of where EV is heading. We publish no EV-drift half-life because our snapshot history is still too short for a regression to mean anything. The seeded placeholder points this note used to warn about have been flagged in the database and excluded from every chart, trend and score, so what you see plotted is observed data. Note the headline EV is decay-weighted, so it reacts to new pulls sooner than this whole-sample horizon implies. Methodology

03 / Contents

What has come out of National League (Spicy)

The eras, sets and cards this pack has actually produced. A record of past pulls — Courtyard publishes no inventory, so this is not a statement about what is left.

By era

Cards seen range from 1950 to 2025.

Vintage (pre-2000)59%$140 avg
Current (2020+)33%$168 avg
Modern (2010-2019)6%$188 avg
Retro (2000-2009)2%$175 avg

Most common sets

Sets these pulls came from.

Topps46%$139 avg
Topps Takashi Murakami + MLB World Tour Tokyo Series4%$114 avg
Bowman3%$200 avg
Donruss3%$89 avg
O-Pee-Chee3%$120 avg
Topps Chrome Logofractor Edition3%$106 avg
Topps Tiffany3%$164 avg
Bowman Chrome Mega Box2%$76 avg

Cards seen most often

Named on 99% of readable pulls. The rest do not print a card number, and without one the card cannot be told apart from the set name.

Shohei Ohtani10%$228 avg
Corbin Carroll4%$113 avg
Elly de La Cruz4%$122 avg
Willie Mays3%$131 avg
Del Crandall3%$122 avg
Dwight Gooden3%$164 avg
Hank Aaron3%$211 avg
Ronald Acuna Jr.3%$207 avg

Built from the 117 indexed pulls of this pack so far — a record of what has come out, not a promise about what is left.

04 / Floor safety

National League (Spicy) floor safety & buyback reality

The two ways average EV lies to you — how top-heavy the pack is, and what FMV actually converts to in cash — then which exit pays most.

In National League (Spicy), the top 2% of pulls account for 10% of all pulled value — low dilution. Value is spread fairly evenly across the pool, so the average is close to what a typical rip returns. The observed instant-offer ratio is 85% of FMV, which is the cash number every verdict on this page already uses.

Floor safety

low dilution

10% of everything this pack has paid out came from just the top 2% of pulls. Value is spread broadly across pulls, so the average sits closer to the typical rip here than it does on a top-heavy pack. It still sits above the median — check both.

Buyback reality

84.6% of FMV observed

Across 116 indexed pulls that carry a recorded bid, a $100 FMV pull cashes out around $85 if you instant-sell — in line with the platform's 84.6%. This is the figure every verdict on the site multiplies by.

Holding, listing, or physically redeeming can beat the instant offer — but redemption shipping (typically $16+) eats small wins.

Net exit value

116 paired pulls · 99% bid coverage · confidence 100%

Instant-selling the average (mean) pull here returns $129.07 — $23.49 below sticker FMV (15.4% haircut). That figure is the average of bids we actually recorded, not the platform rate applied blind.

Pro compares all three exits side by side, with the redemption breakeven and the value-by-value haircut curve for this pack.

Bids are recorded, resale is not. Instant-buyback figures are real offers captured at index time and can move. Redemption shipping starts near $16 in the US, is higher internationally, and is charged per shipment — batching pulls lowers it. We publish no resale estimate, liquidity score, or time-to-sell, because no such data is available to us. How buyback works

05 / Observed odds

National League (Spicy) odds — observed, not posted

Reconstructed from real pulls, so it shows what has actually been coming out — posted odds can't do that. It is a record of pulls, not a count of what is left.

Under $620.0%· stable
$62 – $12549.6%· stable
$125 – $250 · beats the pack41.0%· stable
$250 – $625 · big hit8.5%· stable
$625+ · chase0.9%· stable

Observed across 117 indexed pulls — what actually came out of this pack, independent of the posted odds. The 48h column shows tier drift: a falling green tier means fewer of the good cards have come out lately — which may mean they are running out, or may just be a quiet 48 hours.

07 / Big hits

Biggest National League (Spicy) pulls

2025 Bowman Chrome #17 Shohei Ohtani - Blue Wave (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$948PSA 10 GEM MINT

2025 Topps X Bob Ross the Joy of Baseball #41 Shohei Ohtani (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$383PSA 10 GEM MINT

2025 Topps Hidden Gems #HG18 Bryce Harper (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$370PSA 10 GEM MINT

1961 Topps #417 Juan Marichal (PSA 6 EX-MT)

$355PSA 6 EX-MT

1955 Bowman #179 Hank Aaron (PSA 3 VG)

$353PSA 3 VG

2016 Bowman Chrome Prospects Autographs #FT Fernando Tatis Jr. (BGS 9.5 GEM MINT)

$348BGS 9.5 GEM MINT

2024 Panini Prizm Color Blast #1 Dylan Crews (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$320PSA 10 GEM MINT

2023 Topps Home Field Advantage #HA6 Ronald Acuna Jr. (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$309PSA 10 GEM MINT

08 / EV history

National League (Spicy) EV over time

Snapshot per scraper run. The dashed line is break-even — EV above it is +EV.

Calibrated EV currently sits at $154.76, and has moved up 5.9% over the last 7 days.

$154.76EV

09 / Quick answers

National League (Spicy) — quick answers

Is National League (Spicy) worth buying right now?: Our current verdict is NO DATA (score 0/100). No pack price on record, so no net or ROI figure can be computed.
What is the EV of National League (Spicy)?: The calibrated EV is $154.76 against a pack price of not yet set, with a typical (median) pull of $124.90 across 117 indexed pulls.
What are the real odds of beating the pack price on National League (Spicy)?: We cannot say yet. National League (Spicy) has no pack price on record, and the odds of beating a price are undefined until there is one to beat. The 117 indexed pulls are still shown below as a record of what has come out.
What is the typical pull from National League (Spicy)?: The median pull is $124.90 — half of all indexed rips returned less than that. The single best recorded pull is $947.50.

10 / Pull log