Is Monday Night Matchup worth buying right now?

Our current verdict is NO DATA (score 0/100). No pack price on record, so no net or ROI figure can be computed.

What is the EV of Monday Night Matchup?

The calibrated EV is $73.29 against a pack price of not yet set, with a typical (median) pull of $61.00 across 109 indexed pulls.

What are the real odds of beating the pack price on Monday Night Matchup?

We cannot say yet. Monday Night Matchup has no pack price on record, and the odds of beating a price are undefined until there is one to beat. The 109 indexed pulls are still shown below as a record of what has come out.

What is the typical pull from Monday Night Matchup?

The median pull is $61.00 — half of all indexed rips returned less than that. The single best recorded pull is $273.00.

Football

Monday Night Matchup

Monday Night Matchup is a Courtyard Football mystery pack with a calibrated expected value of $73.29 and a typical (median) pull of $61.00 across 109 indexed pulls. Its pack price is not yet confirmed, so the EV ratio, hit rate, and Rip Advisor verdict are pending.

Calibrated EV

$73

— ROI

LOW CONFIDENCE · 109 pulls · 1dSIGNAL Weakening · 24 h ago

Calibrated EV: $73
Cash-out EV: $62
Pack price: Unknown
Typical pull: $61
Hit rate: —
Lifetime EV: $73
Pulls indexed: 109
Last pull: 1d ago

01 / Rip Advisor

Is Monday Night Matchup worth it right now?

score 0/100NO DATA

050100

No pack price on record, so no net or ROI figure can be computed.

Log this decision:

Verdict is computed transparently from indexed pulls: cash-out ROI, median pull, 7-day trend, hit rate, and sample size. Redemption shipping (typically $16+) is not included — cards worth less than a few times the shipping cost are usually better instant-sold than shipped. Not financial advice.

02 / Pool signals

What's happening in the Monday Night Matchup pool

Lifecycle stage, health, and chase removals — read from indexed pulls, never guessed.

No price set — pool economics can’t be computed.

NO DATA

No price set — pool economics can’t be computed.

Pro adds the Pool Health score and chase-removal impact.

Not observable: packs remaining, value remaining, and which chases are still in the pool — Courtyard publishes a pull feed, not inventory. We label those unavailable rather than estimate them. Everything above is computed from indexed pulls and EV snapshots; thin or stale data pulls the score toward neutral. Formula

Chase tracker

No pack price set, so a chase tier cannot be anchored.

Signal lifetime

SIGNAL Weakening · 24 h ago

Pull flow has slowed past the usual gap, so this read is ageing faster than the pack is producing evidence.

Newest pull: 24 h; observed
Pull rate: too soon; observed
Pulls, 7d: 109; observed
Half-life: Pro

Aged, not predicted. Half-life counts how fast new evidence arrives, measured from real pull timestamps — it is not a forecast of where EV is heading. We publish no EV-drift half-life because our snapshot history is still too short for a regression to mean anything. The seeded placeholder points this note used to warn about have been flagged in the database and excluded from every chart, trend and score, so what you see plotted is observed data. Note the headline EV is decay-weighted, so it reacts to new pulls sooner than this whole-sample horizon implies. Methodology

03 / Contents

What has come out of Monday Night Matchup

The eras, sets and cards this pack has actually produced. A record of past pulls — Courtyard publishes no inventory, so this is not a statement about what is left.

By era

Cards seen range from 1956 to 2025.

Current (2020+)74%$74 avg
Vintage (pre-2000)12%$69 avg
Modern (2010-2019)8%$76 avg
Retro (2000-2009)6%$71 avg

Most common sets

Sets these pulls came from.

Panini Prizm19%$65 avg
Topps10%$71 avg
Panini Donruss Optic9%$86 avg
Panini Mosaic9%$62 avg
Panini Select6%$71 avg
Panini Donruss4%$83 avg
Topps Chrome4%$55 avg
Panini Phoenix2%$63 avg

Cards seen most often

Named on every readable pull.

Jayden Daniels7%$74 avg
Drake Maye6%$96 avg
Cam Skattebo4%$69 avg
Cam Ward4%$62 avg
Jalen Hurts3%$103 avg
Travis Hunter3%$79 avg
Baker Mayfield2%$79 avg
Caleb Williams2%$90 avg

Built from the 109 indexed pulls of this pack so far — a record of what has come out, not a promise about what is left.

04 / Floor safety

Monday Night Matchup floor safety & buyback reality

The two ways average EV lies to you — how top-heavy the pack is, and what FMV actually converts to in cash — then which exit pays most.

In Monday Night Matchup, the top 2% of pulls account for 8% of all pulled value — low dilution. Value is spread fairly evenly across the pool, so the average is close to what a typical rip returns. The observed instant-offer ratio is 85% of FMV, which is the cash number every verdict on this page already uses.

Floor safety

low dilution

8% of everything this pack has paid out came from just the top 2% of pulls. Value is spread broadly across pulls, so the average sits closer to the typical rip here than it does on a top-heavy pack. It still sits above the median — check both.

Buyback reality

84.8% of FMV observed

Across 105 indexed pulls that carry a recorded bid, a $100 FMV pull cashes out around $85 if you instant-sell — in line with the platform's 84.6%. This is the figure every verdict on the site multiplies by.

Holding, listing, or physically redeeming can beat the instant offer — but redemption shipping (typically $16+) eats small wins.

Net exit value

105 paired pulls · 96% bid coverage · confidence 100%

Instant-selling the average (mean) pull here returns $62.88 — $11.23 below sticker FMV (15.2% haircut). That figure is the average of bids we actually recorded, not the platform rate applied blind.

Pro compares all three exits side by side, with the redemption breakeven and the value-by-value haircut curve for this pack.

Bids are recorded, resale is not. Instant-buyback figures are real offers captured at index time and can move. Redemption shipping starts near $16 in the US, is higher internationally, and is charged per shipment — batching pulls lowers it. We publish no resale estimate, liquidity score, or time-to-sell, because no such data is available to us. How buyback works

05 / Observed odds

Monday Night Matchup odds — observed, not posted

Reconstructed from real pulls, so it shows what has actually been coming out — posted odds can't do that. It is a record of pulls, not a count of what is left.

Under $310.0%· stable
$31 – $6147.7%· stable
$61 – $122 · beats the pack45.0%· stable
$122 – $305 · big hit7.3%· stable
$305+ · chase0.0%· stable

Observed across 109 indexed pulls — what actually came out of this pack, independent of the posted odds. The 48h column shows tier drift: a falling green tier means fewer of the good cards have come out lately — which may mean they are running out, or may just be a quiet 48 hours.

07 / Big hits

Biggest Monday Night Matchup pulls

2024 Panini Donruss Optic #229 Drake Maye - Red (PSA 9 MINT)

$273PSA 9 MINT

2024 Panini Mosaic Micro Mosaic #MMMPS Micah Parsons (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$199PSA 10 GEM MINT

2025 Panini Donruss Bomb Squad #BS-TSH Tyler Shough - Holo (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$192PSA 10 GEM MINT

2019 Panini Select 2020 Xrc Prizm Redemption #305 Jalen Hurts (PSA 9 MINT)

$166PSA 9 MINT

1981 Topps #216 Joe Montana (PSA 6 EX-MT)

$159PSA 6 EX-MT

2023 Panini Obsidian Black Color Blast #24 Justin Fields (PSA 9 MINT)

$150PSA 9 MINT

2020 Panini Select Rookie Signatures #THI Tee Higgins - Blue (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$140PSA 10 GEM MINT

2022 Panini Score #295 Zach Wilson - Autograph-End Zone (PSA 9 MINT)

$135PSA 9 MINT

08 / EV history

Monday Night Matchup EV over time

Snapshot per scraper run. The dashed line is break-even — EV above it is +EV.

Calibrated EV currently sits at $73.29, and has moved up 4.8% over the last 7 days.

$73.29EV

09 / Quick answers

Monday Night Matchup — quick answers

Is Monday Night Matchup worth buying right now?: Our current verdict is NO DATA (score 0/100). No pack price on record, so no net or ROI figure can be computed.
What is the EV of Monday Night Matchup?: The calibrated EV is $73.29 against a pack price of not yet set, with a typical (median) pull of $61.00 across 109 indexed pulls.
What are the real odds of beating the pack price on Monday Night Matchup?: We cannot say yet. Monday Night Matchup has no pack price on record, and the odds of beating a price are undefined until there is one to beat. The 109 indexed pulls are still shown below as a record of what has come out.
What is the typical pull from Monday Night Matchup?: The median pull is $61.00 — half of all indexed rips returned less than that. The single best recorded pull is $273.00.

10 / Pull log