Is Football: Round 3 (Spicy) worth buying right now?

Our current verdict is NO DATA (score 0/100). No pack price on record, so no net or ROI figure can be computed.

What is the EV of Football: Round 3 (Spicy)?

The calibrated EV is $153.17 against a pack price of not yet set, with a typical (median) pull of $98.10 across 50 indexed pulls.

What are the real odds of beating the pack price on Football: Round 3 (Spicy)?

100.0% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. These are observed odds reconstructed from real pulls, not the posted odds.

What is the typical pull from Football: Round 3 (Spicy)?

The median pull is $98.10 — half of all indexed rips returned less than that. The single best recorded pull is $673.50.

Football

Football: Round 3 (Spicy)

Football: Round 3 (Spicy) is a Courtyard Football mystery pack with a calibrated expected value of $153.17 and a typical (median) pull of $98.10 across 50 indexed pulls. Its pack price is not yet confirmed, so the EV ratio, hit rate, and Rip Advisor verdict are pending.

Ranked #101 of 129 tracked packs by cash-out ratio, #12 of 16 Football packs.

Calibrated EV

$153

— ROI

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE· 50 pulls · 2dSIGNAL Stale · 3 days ago

Calibrated EV: $153
Cash-out EV: $137
Pack price: Unknown
Typical pull: $98
Hit rate: —
Lifetime EV: $157
Pulls indexed: 50
Last pull: 2d ago

01 / Rip Advisor

Is Football: Round 3 (Spicy) worth it right now?

score 0/100NO DATA

050100

No pack price on record, so no net or ROI figure can be computed.

Log this decision:

Verdict is computed transparently from indexed pulls: cash-out ROI, median pull, 7-day trend, hit rate, and sample size. Redemption shipping (typically $16+) is not included — cards worth less than a few times the shipping cost are usually better instant-sold than shipped. Not financial advice.

02 / Pool signals

What's happening in the Football: Round 3 (Spicy) pool

Lifecycle stage, health, and chase removals — read from indexed pulls, never guessed.

No price set — pool economics can’t be computed.

NO DATA

No price set — pool economics can’t be computed.

Pro adds the Pool Health score and chase-removal impact.

Not observable: packs remaining, value remaining, and which chases are still in the pool — Courtyard publishes a pull feed, not inventory. We label those unavailable rather than estimate them. Everything above is computed from indexed pulls and EV snapshots; thin or stale data pulls the score toward neutral. Formula

Chase tracker

No pack price set, so a chase tier cannot be anchored.

Signal lifetime

SIGNAL Stale · 3 days ago

No new pulls for well past this pack's usual gap (typically 3.4 h). It may be paused, sold out, or no longer indexed. At the observed pull rate, half the evidence behind this read is replaced in about 7.1 days.

Newest pull: 3 days; observed
Pull rate: 7.1/day; observed
Pulls, 7d: 40; observed
Half-life: Pro

Aged, not predicted. Half-life counts how fast new evidence arrives, measured from real pull timestamps — it is not a forecast of where EV is heading. We publish no EV-drift half-life because our snapshot history is too short and its early stretch is seeded placeholder data; a number regressed from that would describe our seed script, not the market. Note the headline EV is decay-weighted, so it reacts to new pulls sooner than this whole-sample horizon implies. Methodology

03 / Contents

What has come out of Football: Round 3 (Spicy)

The eras, sets and cards this pack has actually produced. A record of past pulls — Courtyard publishes no inventory, so this is not a statement about what is left.

By era

Cards seen range from 1952 to 2025.

Current (2020+)82%$164 avg
Vintage (pre-2000)14%$125 avg
Modern (2010-2019)4%$125 avg

Most common sets

Sets these pulls came from.

Panini Prizm14%$119 avg
Panini Select10%$185 avg
Topps8%$133 avg
Panini Donruss6%$110 avg
Panini Donruss Downtown6%$433 avg
Panini Donruss Optic4%$82 avg
Panini Mosaic4%$88 avg
Panini Phoenix Thunderbirds4%$76 avg

Cards seen most often

Named on every readable pull.

Drake Maye12%$114 avg
Jaxson Dart10%$85 avg
Bo Nix6%$96 avg
Jayden Daniels4%$239 avg
Travis Hunter4%$90 avg
Abdul Carter2%$252 avg
Archie Manning2%$374 avg
Ashton Jeanty2%$135 avg

Built from the 50 indexed pulls of this pack so far — a record of what has come out, not a promise about what is left.

04 / Floor safety

Football: Round 3 (Spicy) floor safety & buyback reality

The two ways average EV lies to you — how top-heavy the pack is, and what FMV actually converts to in cash — then which exit pays most.

In Football: Round 3 (Spicy), the top 2% of pulls account for 9% of all pulled value — low dilution. Value is spread fairly evenly across the pool, so the average is close to what a typical rip returns. The observed instant-offer ratio is 90% of FMV, which is the cash number every verdict on this page already uses.

Floor safety

low dilution

9% of everything this pack has paid out came from just the top 2% of pulls. Value is spread broadly across pulls — the average EV is a fair picture of a typical rip.

Buyback reality

89.6% of FMV observed

Across offers we've indexed, a $100 FMV pull cashes out around $90 if you instant-sell — in line with the advertised ~90%. Every number in our verdicts already uses this haircut.

Holding, listing, or physically redeeming can beat the instant offer — but redemption shipping (typically $16+) eats small wins.

Net exit value

48 paired pulls · 96% bid coverage · confidence 84%

Instant-selling a typical pull here returns $143.75 — $16.68 below sticker FMV (10.4% haircut). That figure is the average of bids we actually recorded, not an assumed 90%.

Pro compares all three exits side by side, with the redemption breakeven and the value-by-value haircut curve for this pack.

Bids are recorded, resale is not. Instant-buyback figures are real offers captured at index time and can move. Redemption shipping starts near $16 in the US, is higher internationally, and is charged per shipment — batching pulls lowers it. We publish no resale estimate, liquidity score, or time-to-sell, because no such data is available to us. How buyback works

05 / Observed odds

Football: Round 3 (Spicy) odds — observed, not posted

Reconstructed from real pulls, so it reflects the pool as it drains — posted odds can't do that.

Under $490.0%· stable
$49 – $9850.0%· stable
$98 – $196 · beats the pack24.0%· stable
$196 – $491 · big hit22.0%· stable
$491+ · chase4.0%· stable

Observed across 50 indexed pulls — what actually came out of this pack, independent of the posted odds. The 48h column shows tier drift: a falling green tier means the good cards are leaving the pool.

07 / Big hits

Biggest Football: Round 3 (Spicy) pulls

2021 Panini Donruss Downtown #DT-37 Jaylen Waddle (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$674PSA 10 GEM MINT

2022 Panini Absolute Kaboom! Horizontal #KH6 Deebo Samuel (PSA 9 MINT)

$579PSA 9 MINT

2025 Panini Donruss Downtown #5 Archie Manning (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$374PSA 10 GEM MINT

2024 Sage Artistry Autographs #ARTJD2 Jayden Daniels - Silver (PSA 8 NM-MT)

$280PSA 8 NM-MT

2021 Panini Obsidian Color Blast Black #CB24 Justin Fields (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$274PSA 10 GEM MINT

2022 Panini Prizm #306 Sam Howell - Autograph-Blue Shimmer (PSA 9 MINT)

$269PSA 9 MINT

1986 Topps #17 Jay Hilgenberg (PSA 9 MINT)

$268PSA 9 MINT

2021 Panini Donruss Optic Downtown #DT35 Trey Lance (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$260PSA 10 GEM MINT

08 / EV history

Football: Round 3 (Spicy) EV over time

Snapshot per scraper run. The dashed line is break-even — EV above it is +EV.

Calibrated EV currently sits at $153.17, and has moved down 9.5% over the last 7 days.

$153.17EV

09 / Quick answers

Football: Round 3 (Spicy) — quick answers

Is Football: Round 3 (Spicy) worth buying right now?: Our current verdict is NO DATA (score 0/100). No pack price on record, so no net or ROI figure can be computed.
What is the EV of Football: Round 3 (Spicy)?: The calibrated EV is $153.17 against a pack price of not yet set, with a typical (median) pull of $98.10 across 50 indexed pulls.
What are the real odds of beating the pack price on Football: Round 3 (Spicy)?: 100.0% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. These are observed odds reconstructed from real pulls, not the posted odds.
What is the typical pull from Football: Round 3 (Spicy)?: The median pull is $98.10 — half of all indexed rips returned less than that. The single best recorded pull is $673.50.

10 / Pull log