Is Football: Round 1 worth buying right now?

Our current verdict is NO DATA (score 0/100). No pack price on record, so no net or ROI figure can be computed.

What is the EV of Football: Round 1?

The calibrated EV is $99.87 against a pack price of not yet set, with a typical (median) pull of $87.60 across 27 indexed pulls.

What are the real odds of beating the pack price on Football: Round 1?

100.0% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. These are observed odds reconstructed from real pulls, not the posted odds.

What is the typical pull from Football: Round 1?

The median pull is $87.60 — half of all indexed rips returned less than that. The single best recorded pull is $293.00.

Football

Football: Round 1

Football: Round 1 is a Courtyard Football mystery pack with a calibrated expected value of $99.87 and a typical (median) pull of $87.60 across 27 indexed pulls. Its pack price is not yet confirmed, so the EV ratio, hit rate, and Rip Advisor verdict are pending.

Ranked #111 of 129 tracked packs by cash-out ratio, #15 of 16 Football packs.

Calibrated EV

$100

— ROI

LOW CONFIDENCE· 27 pulls · 3dSIGNAL Stale · 3 days ago

Calibrated EV: $100
Cash-out EV: $89
Pack price: Unknown
Typical pull: $88
Hit rate: —
Lifetime EV: $102
Pulls indexed: 27
Last pull: 3d ago

01 / Rip Advisor

Is Football: Round 1 worth it right now?

score 0/100NO DATA

050100

No pack price on record, so no net or ROI figure can be computed.

Log this decision:

Verdict is computed transparently from indexed pulls: cash-out ROI, median pull, 7-day trend, hit rate, and sample size. Redemption shipping (typically $16+) is not included — cards worth less than a few times the shipping cost are usually better instant-sold than shipped. Not financial advice.

02 / Pool signals

What's happening in the Football: Round 1 pool

Lifecycle stage, health, and chase removals — read from indexed pulls, never guessed.

No price set — pool economics can’t be computed.

NO DATA

No price set — pool economics can’t be computed.

Pro adds the Pool Health score and chase-removal impact.

Not observable: packs remaining, value remaining, and which chases are still in the pool — Courtyard publishes a pull feed, not inventory. We label those unavailable rather than estimate them. Everything above is computed from indexed pulls and EV snapshots; thin or stale data pulls the score toward neutral. Formula

Chase tracker

Needs 30+ indexed pulls to define a chase tier for this pack — 27 so far.

Signal lifetime

SIGNAL Stale · 3 days ago

No new pulls for well past this pack's usual gap (typically 8.1 h). It may be paused, sold out, or no longer indexed. At the observed pull rate, half the evidence behind this read is replaced in about 9.1 days.

Newest pull: 3 days; observed
Pull rate: 3.0/day; observed
Pulls, 7d: 11; observed
Half-life: Pro

Aged, not predicted. Half-life counts how fast new evidence arrives, measured from real pull timestamps — it is not a forecast of where EV is heading. We publish no EV-drift half-life because our snapshot history is too short and its early stretch is seeded placeholder data; a number regressed from that would describe our seed script, not the market. Note the headline EV is decay-weighted, so it reacts to new pulls sooner than this whole-sample horizon implies. Methodology

03 / Contents

What has come out of Football: Round 1

The eras, sets and cards this pack has actually produced. A record of past pulls — Courtyard publishes no inventory, so this is not a statement about what is left.

By era

Cards seen range from 1965 to 2025.

Current (2020+)74%$101 avg
Modern (2010-2019)11%$90 avg
Vintage (pre-2000)11%$121 avg
Retro (2000-2009)4%$104 avg

Most common sets

Sets these pulls came from.

Panini Select15%$130 avg
Panini Donruss Optic11%$89 avg
Panini Prizm11%$88 avg
Bowman Best University4%$84 avg
Bowman U Now4%$86 avg
Nflpa Stay Cool in School Tom Brady4%$104 avg
Onit Ohio State University Fusion4%$77 avg
Panini Donruss Bomb Squad4%$73 avg

Cards seen most often

Named on 96% of readable pulls. The rest do not print a card number, and without one the card cannot be told apart from the set name.

Bo Nix19%$78 avg
Drake Maye8%$85 avg
Fernando Mendoza8%$85 avg
Bo Jackson4%$125 avg
Brian Bosworth4%$167 avg
Caleb Williams4%$293 avg
Cam Skattebo4%$77 avg
Dak Prescott4%$84 avg

Built from the 27 indexed pulls of this pack so far — a record of what has come out, not a promise about what is left.

07 / Big hits

Biggest Football: Round 1 pulls

2024 Panini Select #378 Caleb Williams - Silver Prizm (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$293PSA 10 GEM MINT

2024 Panini Mosaic Kaleidoscopic #22 Malik Nabers (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$187PSA 10 GEM MINT

1988 Topps #144 Brian Bosworth (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$167PSA 10 GEM MINT

1991 Upper Deck #155 Bo Jackson (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$125PSA 10 GEM MINT

2022 Panini Mosaic Autographs No Huddle #ANHKP Kenny Pickett (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$116PSA 10 GEM MINT

2024 Panini Mosaic #393 Spencer Rattler - Red Sparkle (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$105PSA 10 GEM MINT

2003 Nflpa Stay Cool in School Tom Brady (PSA 9 MINT)

$104PSA 9 MINT

2018 Panini Donruss Optic #156 Saquon Barkley (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$95PSA 10 GEM MINT

08 / EV history

Football: Round 1 EV over time

Snapshot per scraper run. The dashed line is break-even — EV above it is +EV.

Calibrated EV currently sits at $99.87, and has moved down 5.8% over the last 7 days.

$99.87EV

09 / Quick answers

Football: Round 1 — quick answers

Is Football: Round 1 worth buying right now?: Our current verdict is NO DATA (score 0/100). No pack price on record, so no net or ROI figure can be computed.
What is the EV of Football: Round 1?: The calibrated EV is $99.87 against a pack price of not yet set, with a typical (median) pull of $87.60 across 27 indexed pulls.
What are the real odds of beating the pack price on Football: Round 1?: 100.0% of indexed pulls met or beat the pack price. These are observed odds reconstructed from real pulls, not the posted odds.
What is the typical pull from Football: Round 1?: The median pull is $87.60 — half of all indexed rips returned less than that. The single best recorded pull is $293.00.

10 / Pull log