Is Football PSA 10 (Spicy) worth buying right now?

Our current verdict is NO DATA (score 0/100). No pack price on record, so no net or ROI figure can be computed.

What is the EV of Football PSA 10 (Spicy)?

The calibrated EV is $100.07 against a pack price of not yet set, with a typical (median) pull of $66.90 across 718 indexed pulls.

What are the real odds of beating the pack price on Football PSA 10 (Spicy)?

We cannot say yet. Football PSA 10 (Spicy) has no pack price on record, and the odds of beating a price are undefined until there is one to beat. The 718 indexed pulls are still shown below as a record of what has come out.

What is the typical pull from Football PSA 10 (Spicy)?

The median pull is $66.90 — half of all indexed rips returned less than that. The single best recorded pull is $918.10.

Football

Football PSA 10 (Spicy)

Football PSA 10 (Spicy) is a Courtyard Football mystery pack with a calibrated expected value of $100.07 and a typical (median) pull of $66.90 across 718 indexed pulls. Its pack price is not yet confirmed, so the EV ratio, hit rate, and Rip Advisor verdict are pending.

Calibrated EV

$100

— ROI

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE · 718 pulls · 1dSIGNAL Stale · 38 h ago

Calibrated EV: $100
Cash-out EV: $85
Pack price: Unknown
Typical pull: $67
Hit rate: —
Lifetime EV: $101
Pulls indexed: 718
Last pull: 1d ago

01 / Rip Advisor

Is Football PSA 10 (Spicy) worth it right now?

score 0/100NO DATA

050100

No pack price on record, so no net or ROI figure can be computed.

Log this decision:

Verdict is computed transparently from indexed pulls: cash-out ROI, median pull, 7-day trend, hit rate, and sample size. Redemption shipping (typically $16+) is not included — cards worth less than a few times the shipping cost are usually better instant-sold than shipped. Not financial advice.

02 / Pool signals

What's happening in the Football PSA 10 (Spicy) pool

Lifecycle stage, health, and chase removals — read from indexed pulls, never guessed.

No price set — pool economics can’t be computed.

NO DATA

No price set — pool economics can’t be computed.

Pro adds the Pool Health score and chase-removal impact.

Not observable: packs remaining, value remaining, and which chases are still in the pool — Courtyard publishes a pull feed, not inventory. We label those unavailable rather than estimate them. Everything above is computed from indexed pulls and EV snapshots; thin or stale data pulls the score toward neutral. Formula

Chase tracker

No pack price set, so a chase tier cannot be anchored.

Signal lifetime

SIGNAL Stale · 38 h ago

No new pulls for well past this pack's usual gap (typically 17 min). It may be paused, sold out, or no longer indexed. At the observed pull rate, half the evidence behind this read is replaced in about 8.4 days.

Newest pull: 38 h; observed
Pull rate: 85.8/day; observed
Pulls, 7d: 696; observed
Half-life: Pro

Aged, not predicted. Half-life counts how fast new evidence arrives, measured from real pull timestamps — it is not a forecast of where EV is heading. We publish no EV-drift half-life because our snapshot history is still too short for a regression to mean anything. The seeded placeholder points this note used to warn about have been flagged in the database and excluded from every chart, trend and score, so what you see plotted is observed data. Note the headline EV is decay-weighted, so it reacts to new pulls sooner than this whole-sample horizon implies. Methodology

03 / Contents

What has come out of Football PSA 10 (Spicy)

The eras, sets and cards this pack has actually produced. A record of past pulls — Courtyard publishes no inventory, so this is not a statement about what is left.

By era

Cards seen range from 1984 to 2025.

Current (2020+)81%$101 avg
Modern (2010-2019)13%$109 avg
Vintage (pre-2000)6%$76 avg
Retro (2000-2009)<1%$152 avg

Most common sets

Sets these pulls came from.

Panini Prizm15%$96 avg
Panini Donruss11%$71 avg
Panini Mosaic10%$71 avg
Panini Donruss Optic10%$92 avg
Panini Select7%$92 avg
Topps Now3%$80 avg
Topps Chrome3%$160 avg
Panini Phoenix2%$94 avg

Cards seen most often

Named on all but a handful of readable pulls. The rest do not print a card number, and without one the card cannot be told apart from the set name.

Drake Maye13%$92 avg
Jaxson Dart5%$68 avg
Bo Nix4%$84 avg
JJ McCarthy3%$102 avg
Jayden Daniels3%$71 avg
Shedeur Sanders3%$55 avg
CJ Stroud3%$110 avg
Tetairoa Mcmillan3%$63 avg

Built from the 718 indexed pulls of this pack so far — a record of what has come out, not a promise about what is left.

04 / Floor safety

Football PSA 10 (Spicy) floor safety & buyback reality

The two ways average EV lies to you — how top-heavy the pack is, and what FMV actually converts to in cash — then which exit pays most.

In Football PSA 10 (Spicy), the top 2% of pulls account for 12% of all pulled value — low dilution. Value is spread fairly evenly across the pool, so the average is close to what a typical rip returns. The observed instant-offer ratio is 85% of FMV, which is the cash number every verdict on this page already uses.

Floor safety

low dilution

12% of everything this pack has paid out came from just the top 2% of pulls. Value is spread broadly across pulls, so the average sits closer to the typical rip here than it does on a top-heavy pack. It still sits above the median — check both.

Buyback reality

84.8% of FMV observed

Across 698 indexed pulls that carry a recorded bid, a $100 FMV pull cashes out around $85 if you instant-sell — in line with the platform's 84.6%. This is the figure every verdict on the site multiplies by.

Holding, listing, or physically redeeming can beat the instant offer — but redemption shipping (typically $16+) eats small wins.

Net exit value

698 paired pulls · 97% bid coverage · confidence 100%

Instant-selling the average (mean) pull here returns $85.51 — $15.34 below sticker FMV (15.2% haircut). That figure is the average of bids we actually recorded, not the platform rate applied blind.

Pro compares all three exits side by side, with the redemption breakeven and the value-by-value haircut curve for this pack.

Bids are recorded, resale is not. Instant-buyback figures are real offers captured at index time and can move. Redemption shipping starts near $16 in the US, is higher internationally, and is charged per shipment — batching pulls lowers it. We publish no resale estimate, liquidity score, or time-to-sell, because no such data is available to us. How buyback works

05 / Observed odds

Football PSA 10 (Spicy) odds — observed, not posted

Reconstructed from real pulls, so it shows what has actually been coming out — posted odds can't do that. It is a record of pulls, not a count of what is left.

Under $330.0%· stable
$33 – $6749.4%· stable
$67 – $134 · beats the pack34.4%▲ 2.9pt · 48h
$134 – $335 · big hit13.4%▼ 1.6pt · 48h
$335+ · chase2.8%▼ 0.8pt · 48h

Observed across 718 indexed pulls — what actually came out of this pack, independent of the posted odds. The 48h column shows tier drift: a falling green tier means fewer of the good cards have come out lately — which may mean they are running out, or may just be a quiet 48 hours.

07 / Big hits

Biggest Football PSA 10 (Spicy) pulls

2023 Panini Donruss Optic Downtown! #D1 Bryce Young (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$918PSA 10 GEM MINT

2024 Panini Donruss Optic Downtown Duos #2 Brock Purdy/Deebo Samuel (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$661PSA 10 GEM MINT

2025 Panini Donruss Downtown Horizontal #20 Jalen Milroe (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$641PSA 10 GEM MINT

2025 Panini Donruss Downtown #9 Ceedee Lamb (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$625PSA 10 GEM MINT

2025 Panini Donruss Downtown #3 Derrick Henry (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$608PSA 10 GEM MINT

2025 Panini Donruss Downtown #3 Derrick Henry (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$603PSA 10 GEM MINT

2024 Panini Absolute Kaboom! Horizontal #14 Michael Penix Jr. (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$547PSA 10 GEM MINT

2018 Panini Contenders #125 Mason Rudolph - Autograph-Cracked Ice (PSA 10 GEM MINT)

$524PSA 10 GEM MINT

08 / EV history

Football PSA 10 (Spicy) EV over time

Snapshot per scraper run. The dashed line is break-even — EV above it is +EV.

Calibrated EV currently sits at $100.07, and has moved up 9.0% over the last 7 days.

$100.07EV

09 / Quick answers

Football PSA 10 (Spicy) — quick answers

Is Football PSA 10 (Spicy) worth buying right now?: Our current verdict is NO DATA (score 0/100). No pack price on record, so no net or ROI figure can be computed.
What is the EV of Football PSA 10 (Spicy)?: The calibrated EV is $100.07 against a pack price of not yet set, with a typical (median) pull of $66.90 across 718 indexed pulls.
What are the real odds of beating the pack price on Football PSA 10 (Spicy)?: We cannot say yet. Football PSA 10 (Spicy) has no pack price on record, and the odds of beating a price are undefined until there is one to beat. The 718 indexed pulls are still shown below as a record of what has come out.
What is the typical pull from Football PSA 10 (Spicy)?: The median pull is $66.90 — half of all indexed rips returned less than that. The single best recorded pull is $918.10.

10 / Pull log